• There are some challenges but the picture is not as negative as some make it to be
• The world economy is doing well
• We are very positive on demand both in the short and long-term
• Peak demand is not going to happen, the world keeps on growing

His comments come after the bloc decided to delay the planned output increase in December over the weekend here. As ever, OPEC remains the one to be the most bullish about the oil market prospects and unsurprisingly so.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The move here is to largely deal with „hidden debt“ or what is intricately known as debt arising from local government financing vehicles (LGFV). These are off-balance sheet debt that are incurred by local governments to finance big projects and infrastructure. For some context, local governments in the past were not allowed to sell bonds and so resorted to establishing LGFVs to raise funds.

*coughs* And surprise, surprise. That didn’t turn out too well. As of last year, IMF estimated China’s „hidden debt“ to be around above ¥60 trillion. That translates to roughly half of the country’s GDP. Danger, danger.

And with China’s property sector imploding in recent years, that has impacted revenues of local governments and in turn raises the odds of these LGFVs going bust. So, that brings us to where we are now.

Chinese lawmakers are now said to be considering a bill to raise ceilings on local government debt and this will effectively be a one-off measure to replace these supposed „hidden debt“. The Chinese ministry of finance has had many plans since 2015 to try and address this and this is just another part of that.

Just be wary though that this is a sort of left pocket to right pocket situation. What this effectively does is move the supposed „hidden debt“ back on to the balance sheets of local governments. It still does not completely address the fiscal sustainability of it all and the structural risks in servicing the debt.

But I would assume as part of this measure, China will also announce some plan to allow local governments to issue a sizable amount of bonds through the next three to four years to deal with all of this.

Otherwise, it’s not exactly a full proof plan and that will not ease investor concern and trust in Beijing’s handling of this matter. That especially with Xi having pinning this item as one of China’s three „major economic and financial risks“ – alongside the property market and financial sector concerns.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental
Overview

Crude oil opened the day
with a positive gap today following the weekend news of OPEC+ delaying the December
production hike.

In the big picture, central
bank easing generally leads the manufacturing cycle, so we can expect global
growth to pick up and support the crude oil market. One risk that might be
weighing on the market is the US election as a Trump victory might be bearish
due to increased supply expectations.

It’s worth remembering that
in 2016, crude oil did fall initially on Trump’s victory but eventually rallied
for more than 20% in the following three months on higher global growth
expectations.

In case we get a red sweep,
the market will likely focus on global growth with Trump’s tax cuts. In case we
get Trump and a divided Congress, we can expect him to focus majorly on tariffs
and that could dent global growth and put some pressure on the market.

With Harris as President and a divided Congress we should see crude oil gaining as she needs a legislative action to raise taxes and has a
lighter stance on tariffs. A blue sweep could still be bullish but with a lesser degree.

Crude Oil
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that crude oil is now back at the key 71.67 resistance following the OPEC+ production hike
delay. The buyers will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the
bullish bets into the 77.60 level next. The sellers, on the other hand, will
likely lean on the resistance to position for a drop into the 65 handle.

Crude Oil Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have a minor upward trendline defining the current bullish
momentum. The buyers will likely keep on leaning on it to keep bidding the
price up, while the sellers will want to see the price breaking lower to
increase the bearish bets into the 65 handle.

Crude Oil Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can
see the gap higher today following the weekend news with the price now near the
key resistance. There’s not much to add here as the buyers will look for a
break higher, while the sellers will step in to position for a drop into new
lows. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming
Catalysts

Tomorrow we have the US ISM Services PMI and the US Presidential Election. On
Thursday, we have the US Jobless Claims and the FOMC Policy Decision. On
Friday, we conclude the week with the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
report.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

With its recent launch, Xlence is
quickly positioning itself as a promising option in the online trading world.
This new platform emphasizes transparency, education, and accessibility, aiming
to make trading a simpler and more empowering experience for users.

In a recent announcement, Xlence
laid out its mission to provide traders with a supportive and versatile
environment, underpinned by advanced technology and a diverse selection of
trading instruments. This approach shows a clear focus on catering to both
experienced traders and newcomers, offering tools, resources, and tailored
support.

A Wide Array of Trading Options to Suit All Investors

One of the company’s standout
features is its broad range of trading options, which includes Forex, metals,
indices, commodities, futures, and shares. With this variety, Xlence caters to
traders looking to diversify their portfolios and explore different strategies,
allowing them to adapt their trades according to shifting market conditions.

To support this flexibility, Xlence
offers four unique account types—Essential, Prime, Deluxe, and Ultimate—each
designed to suit different trading styles and levels of expertise. Through this
segmentation, Xlence ensures that all traders, from beginners to seasoned
investors, can access features aligned with their goals, trading preferences,
and risk tolerance.

The platform also highlights its low
spreads, flexible leverage, and fast trade execution, all critical features
that give traders an edge in fast-paced markets. Xlence appears focused on
streamlining the user experience, particularly when it comes to managing funds.

With a seamless approach to deposits
and withdrawals, Xlence aims to make financial transactions straightforward,
reflecting the platform’s commitment to providing a hassle-free and
user-centered trading experience.

Emphasizing Education and Support for a Global Clientele

The broker’s emphasis on education
and support reflects a strong understanding of what traders need to succeed.
The platform offers a comprehensive suite of educational resources, designed to
benefit both new and experienced traders.

These resources range from
beginner-friendly tutorials to advanced insights into market trends and trading
techniques. By providing traders with access to these learning tools, Xlence
shows it understands that successful trading requires a continuous process of
learning and skill development.

Beyond education, Xlence also offers
extensive support to its users, showing a notable commitment to accessibility
for traders worldwide. With customer service available in over 15 languages,
the platform is well-prepared to assist a diverse client base.

This multilingual support
underscores the broker’s global perspective, ensuring that traders from various
backgrounds can find guidance in their preferred language, which can be
especially valuable in navigating complex trading environments. The approach
indicates Xlence’s awareness of the varied needs of its clients and highlights
its focus on creating a trading environment where users feel valued and
supported.

In a highly competitive online
trading market, Xlence’s balanced approach to technology, user education, and
support sets it apart. The platform’s attention to providing versatile trading
options, combined with its dedication to education and global support, suggests
that Xlence is well-positioned to become a trusted name in the industry.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

APPL stock outlook: Time to sell and watch for VWAP reaction at $205

Apple Inc. (AAPL) has long been a shining star in the stock market, winning the hearts of investors and traders alike. But even the best stocks need a breather, and recent price action hints that now might be the time to shift gears. Don’t worry—this doesn’t mean giving up on AAPL. It’s about being smart, taking some chips off the table, and watching for that perfect moment to jump back in. Let’s dive into why selling a portion of your AAPL holdings and waiting for a potential reaction at the $205 VWAP could be a solid move. Further lower, we have the $200 round number where a lot of liquadity is waiting with pre-set and will-be-set orders by traders, should the stock price declines to that zone. And we have the 196’ish level which is the top of the previous long consolidation zone. Dip seekers may want to cast a net of buys at $190 to $206 for patient stock accumilation and dip buying, as they average out an entry price at apx $200 or even slightly lower.

Why sell Apple stocks or take partial profits on AAPL now?

If you’ve been riding AAPL’s upward trend, congrats—you’ve earned it. But let’s not ignore the signs pointing to consolidation after a big run. For over a year, AAPL has bounced within a 17% range, creating a pretty clear trading zone. Resistance near $235 has once again triggered some profit-taking, adding to the current dip. This isn’t unusual; it’s actually quite healthy for a stock to pause and recalibrate. So, taking partial profits now could protect some gains and free up capital for a potential buy at a more attractive price.

Key VWAP level at $205 – the sweet spot to watch

Now, here’s where things get interesting. The volume-weighted average price (VWAP) near $205 has acted as a solid support in past consolidations. It’s a place where buyers often return to show their strength. If AAPL does drift down to this level, it’s time to pay attention. A bounce here could signal that it’s game on for another climb, while a break below might mean more downside is coming. Either way, $205 is the line in the sand.

What to keep an eye on

1. Price reaction at $205: If AAPL makes its way to $205, how it reacts could be a big clue. A strong bounce could mean buyers are stepping up, setting the stage for a rebound. But if it breaks below this level with conviction, it might be wise to hold off before buying back in.

2. Volume and momentum: Watch the volume as AAPL approaches $205. Heavy volume that pushes the stock back up can be a sign of renewed buying interest. But if volume surges and the price keeps slipping, that’s a caution flag.

3. Overall market sentiment: Let’s not forget that AAPL doesn’t move in a vacuum. Keep an eye on the tech sector and the broader market. A strong tech rally could support AAPL, while market-wide jitters might make any dip more pronounced.

I am a stubborn holder of Apple stock and you can’t time the market.

You can’t time the market but you can mitigate risk by lowering your position size. Here’s the comforting part—AAPL remains a stellar long-term pick. Taking partial profits now isn’t about losing faith; it’s about being strategic. Waiting for the stock to approach $205 and observing its behavior there can set you up for an even better re-entry point. Be prepared for some volatility and be ready to act based on what unfolds at this pivotal level.

In the end, stepping back to reassess and possibly buy back at a lower price can be the smart, patient move. The VWAP’s history as a support level makes it the perfect spot for a potential showdown. Whether it holds or breaks will determine the next chapter for AAPL—and you’ll be ready.

AAPL stock news: Quick takeaways you need to know

Last Updated: November 03, 2024

• Apple’s new AI Push to offset iPhone sales
  Apple is rolling out new AI products to help cushion potential drops in iPhone sales. This move showcases their commitment to staying innovative and diversifying their tech lineup. Analysts are optimistic, suggesting this could boost market sentiment and strengthen Apple’s long-term growth prospects, even amid economic uncertainties.
• Berkshire Hathaway trims Apple stake
  Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway reduced its Apple holdings significantly in Q4 2022, cutting its position by over 33%, equivalent to $16 billion. Despite this, Berkshire still holds $54.7 billion worth of AAPL shares, signaling cautious confidence. The strategic shift raised eyebrows but also highlights Buffett’s rebalancing strategy to mitigate risk while maintaining a significant stake.
• Cash pile grows at Berkshire
  Following the reduction in its Apple stake, Berkshire’s cash reserves swelled to $131 billion. This suggests that Buffett is gearing up for potential acquisitions or new investments. Traders should watch closely for Buffett’s next moves, as these could impact both Apple’s stock and broader market trends.
• Bottom line for Apple investors
  While Berkshire’s sell-off might cause short-term concern, Apple’s diversification into AI and sustained tech dominance keep it a strong long-term pick. Stay vigilant and consider taking partial profits to mitigate risk, especially as new buying opportunities could emerge if AAPL dips further.

AAPL stock valuation: Key points at a glance

• Strong P/FCF ratio: AAPL’s Price-to-Free Cash Flow ratio of 30.73 highlights a solid cash position, appealing for long-term investors due to its potential for reinvestment and shareholder returns.
• Robust market cap: With a market capitalization of $3.34 trillion, Apple’s valuation underscores its strong financial standing and growth potential, supported by projected EPS growth of 21.31% this year and 12.14% next year.
• Forward P/E advantage: Apple’s Forward P/E of 26.95, lower than its current P/E of 36.72, suggests anticipated earnings growth, indicating shares may be undervalued.
• Analyst sentiment: Despite recent downgrades by some firms, the general consensus remains positive, with buy and overweight ratings from major analysts like JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley, reflecting confidence in Apple’s outlook.

AAPL stock analyst recommendations:

• Sure, Jefferies and KeyBanc Capital Markets recently handed out some downgrades, but don’t hit the panic button just yet—most analysts are still quite optimistic. Heavy hitters like JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley are keeping the faith with repeated buy and overweight ratings, suggesting that Apple’s stock isn’t losing its shine.
• Several firms, including Monness Crespi & Hardt and JP Morgan, have been bumping up their price targets significantly. Translation? They’re seeing big potential for Apple’s performance in the market. Investors should keep an eye on these bold moves—they’re like breadcrumbs leading to confidence in Apple’s future growth.
• The wave of upgrades and renewed buy ratings from players like Loop Capital and DA Davidson, who’ve upped their price targets by a good margin, shows analysts are doubling down on their positive outlook. It’s a trend that screams “confidence,” perfectly in line with searches for ‘AAPL analyst recommendation’ and reinforcing a bullish vibe for Apple’s prospects.

AAPL stock insider trading insights:

• Executive sell-offs: CEO Tim Cook and CFO Luca Maestri recently sold shares worth $50 million and $13.4 million, respectively, potentially signaling caution.

• Strategic implications: Continued sales by financial and legal executives, such as the Principal Accounting Officer and General Counsel, could be a cue for investors to review their positions carefully.

Overall, while AAPL remains strong, recent insider activity and valuation metrics call for a balanced, informed approach.

Always sell or buy Apple stock at your own risk only. Visit ForexLive.com for additional, original views for stock investors and traders.

This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.

UPCOMING
EVENTS:

• Monday: Japan on holiday.
• Tuesday: China Caixin Services PMI, RBA Policy Decision,
  Canada Services PMI, US ISM Services PMI, BoC Meeting Minutes, New Zealand
  Labour Market report, US Presidential Election.
• Wednesday: Eurozone PPI.
• Thursday: Japan Average Cash Earnings, Eurozone Retail
  Sales, BoE Policy Decision, US Jobless Claims, FOMC Policy Decision.
• Friday: Canada Labour Market report, US University of
  Michigan Consumer Sentiment.

Tuesday

The RBA is
expected to keep the Cash Rate unchanged at 4.35%. The latest data has been
pretty strong with the Australian labour
market report beating
expectations by a big margin and the underlying
inflation figures
remaining high. Although the data didn’t change much in terms of interest rate
expectations, it still supports the RBA’s patient stance.

The US ISM
Services PMI is expected at 53.8 vs. 54.9 prior. This survey hasn’t been giving
any clear signal in the past couple of years as it’s just been ranging since
2022.

Nonetheless, the
services sector showed resilience in these years, and it looks like it’s been
picking up steam in the recent quarters.

The S&P Global
Services PMI noted that “demand
has strengthened, as signalled by new order inflows hitting the highest for
nearly one-and-a-half years, albeit with both output and sales growth limited
to the services economy.”

And added “businesses
nevertheless remain cautious about hiring, leading to a third month of modest
payroll reductions. Firms are worried in particular about uncertainty caused by
the Presidential Election.”

Therefore,
everything hinges on the US Presidential Election.

The New Zealand
Labour Market report is expected to show a contraction of -0.5% in Q3 vs. 0.4%
in Q2 and the Unemployment Rate to jump to 5.0% vs. 4.6% prior. The Labour Cost
Index Y/Y is expected at 3.4% vs. 3.6% prior, while the Q/Q measure is seen at 0.7%
vs. 0.9% prior.

As a reminder, the
RBNZ cut interest rates by 50 bps at the last meeting and the market expects
another 50 bps cut at the upcoming meeting. In 2025, the market sees four more
25 bps cuts.

The US
Presidential Election is the main event of the week. Nothing else will really
matter. This week will be divided into three phases: the pre-election noise,
the election and the post-election trading. For the US Dollar, a red sweep is
likely the most bullish scenario, while a blue sweep is the most bearish. Newsquawk
prepared a nice and comprehensive Election Guide here.
Definitely check that out!

Thursday

The Japanese
Average Cash Earnings Y/Y is expected at 2.8% vs. 3.0% prior. Wage growth
adjusted for inflation has turned positive lately, which is a good sign for the
BoJ. Nonetheless, the central bank is in no hurry to hike rates and it’s
unlikely that we will see a hike anytime soon.

The BoE is
expected to cut interest rates by 25 bps and bring the Bank Rate to 4.75%. The
UK data recently has been consistently missing expectations and we saw the
central bank’s most watched services inflation measure dropping to 4.9% vs.
5.6% prior.

Further out, the
market scaled back the expectations for a back-to-back cut in December after
the UK budget announcement but if the data continues to soften, we could see
the market increasing the probabilities for a move in December from the current
20% chance.

The US Jobless
Claims continues to be one of the most important releases to follow every week
as it’s a timelier indicator on the state of the labour market.

Initial Claims
remain inside the 200K-260K range created since 2022, while Continuing Claims
after an improvement in the last two months, spiked to the cycle highs in the
last couple of weeks due to distortions coming from hurricanes and strikes.

These distortions
are fading out as Initial Claims dropped back to the lower bound of the range
and Continuing Claims seem to be turning around.

This week Initial
Claims are expected at 223K vs. 216K prior, while there’s no consensus for Continuing
Claims at the time of writing although the prior reading saw a dip to 1862K vs.
1888K prior.

The FOMC is
expected to cut interest rates by 25 bps bringing the FFR to 4.50-4.75%. The
economic data has been consistently showing strength in the US economy with
even some acceleration following the latest rate cut.

This led the
market to price out the aggressive rate cuts expectations which now sees the
Fed pausing earlier in 2025 with 3 cuts priced in vs. 4 according to the Fed’s
projections.

It goes without
saying that the market’s expectations will be influenced by the US Presidential
Election result, so the monetary policy outlook will be shaped by that.

In case we get a
red sweep, we can expect the Fed to change its stance and although they will
likely cut by 25 bps in December anyway, the December cut could be a hawkish
one. The market, on the other hand, could be even more aggressive in pricing
out the rate cuts.

Friday

The Canadian
Labour Market report is expected to show 33.2K jobs added in October vs. 46.7K
in September and the Unemployment Rate to tick higher to 6.6% vs. 6.5% prior.
As a reminder, the BoC has switched its focus from inflation to growth now, so
they will keep on cutting rates with the market seeing 33% chance of another 50
bps cut in December and four more 25 bps cuts in 2025.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Bitcoin price forecast: on track for another ATH test, but watch these levels

If you’re riding the Bitcoin wave, hang tight—things are getting interesting. As BTC/USD keeps testing significant levels, traders and investors are on edge, waiting to see if Bitcoin has what it takes to revisit its all-time high (ATH). With technical analysis pointing to both promising and cautionary signals, here’s what you need to know.

BTCUSD price resistance at $73,794 – the ATH retest zone

The big question on everyone’s mind: will Bitcoin push back to its ATH of $73,794? This level is more than just a psychological milestone—it’s a test of Bitcoin’s strength after a rollercoaster year. If BTC manages to push through this ceiling, we could see a fresh wave of enthusiasm among the bulls. But breaking an ATH is never easy, so keep your eyes on volume and momentum as price approaches this key marker.

The line in the sand between bitcoin bulls and bears at $65,500 – bulls should set a stop there

Before getting too excited about ATHs, remember the support at $65,500. This level has held up as a reliable safety net, where buyers seem ready to jump back in when the price wavers. As long as Bitcoin stays above $65,500, the path to testing higher levels remains intact. A dip below, though, could signal a deeper retracement and shake out the less committed bulls.

Potential slide if support breaks

What if $65,500 doesn’t hold? In that case, brace yourself for a potential pullback toward lower supports—we could be talking about the $60,000 range and later even to $53,000. A break at this $65,500 level would put pressure on Bitcoin and may set off a round of profit-taking and panic selling. It’s crucial to watch how the price behaves at this junction. But for now, I am still on bullish on BTC and looking forward to another retest of the ATH zone – just slightly below or just slightly above $73,794.

Always trade bitcoin at your own risk only. Return to ForexLive.com for additional, original perspectives..

This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.

Earlier I wrote a post highlighting why Presidential betting odds have tightened.

Well, in the last hour they’ve tightened further and it’s from a somewhat shocking place — Iowa.

It was once a swing state but Trump won it by a large margin in 2016 and 2020. It’s largely been abandoned by the Harris campaign.

There was one poll in both 2016 and 2020 that foreshadowed Trump winning by the wide margin he did — Selzer. It’s seen as the gold standard for the state and here is why:

Just now, Selzer released the 2024 Presidential poll and something like Harris trailing by 3-4 points would have been thrilling for Harris because it would show some momentum and better numbers than 2016 or 2020.

The result? Harris 47% and Trump 44%.

That’s a shocker and would open a path for Harris to win the Presidency even without Pennsylvania.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Here the latest odds on betting sites for the Presidential election:

• PredictIt – tied
• Kalshi 55% Trump, 45% Harris (from as wide as 65-35)
• Polymarket 59% Trump, 41% Harris
• Betting sites around 58 Trump, 42% Harris

Now there should be some kind of arb there but I don’t think it’s wise, and definitely don’t do what this French guy who has put $30 million on Trump at Kalshi.

„Théo said he took an interest in U.S. polling data earlier this year. He observed that many polls underestimated Trump’s support in 2016 and 2020, and concluded that if Trump outperformed again this year, he would beat Harris. Théo also cited the „shy Trump voter effect“—the idea that people were reluctant to tell pollsters that they supported Trump.

„I know a lot of Americans who would vote for Trump without telling you that,“ Théo said. Asked about changes that pollsters had made in their methodologies in an attempt to fix the problems of 2016 and 2020, Théo was dismissive, saying he had „not seen anything substantial.“

Théo sent dozens of emails to the Journal reporter over a two-week period. In many of them, he criticized polls from mainstream-media outlets that he saw as skewed in favor of Harris. On the Zoom call, he alleged that Democrat-aligned media organizations were laying the groundwork for social unrest by stoking expectations of a close race, instead of the Trump blowout that he anticipates.“

In any case, here are three reasons that betting odds have improved for Harris:

1) No one trusts polls

Like the above, many believe that Trump is being underestimated like he was in the past two elections. However Nate Silver makes a good argument here that the pendulum may have swung in the other direction.

„It’s hard to overstate how traumatic the 2016 and 2020 elections were for many pollsters. For some, another underestimate of Mr. Trump could be a major threat to their business and their livelihood. For the rest, their status and reputations are on the line. If they underestimate Mr. Trump a third straight time, how can their polls be trusted again? It is much safer, whether in terms of literal self-interest or purely psychologically, to find a close race than to gamble on a clear Harris victory.

At the same time, the 2016 and 2020 polling misfires shattered many pollsters‘ confidence in their own methods and data. When their results come in very blue, they don’t believe it. And frankly, I share that same feeling: If our final Pennsylvania poll comes in at Harris +7, why would I believe it? As a result, pollsters are more willing to take steps to produce more Republican-leaning results.“

In addition, Silver made a compelling argument that the amount of clustering in polls in swing states is statistically impossible.

The takeaway here for any reasonable person is that nothing can be trusted until the votes are counted.

2) The early vote for women

The gender of early voters is only reported in Colorado, Georgia, Indiana, Michigan, North Carolina and Virginia but aggregated it looks like this.

Polls consistently show Harris far ahead of Trump among women.

In Michigan alone it’s 55%-45% for women. Now typically, it finishes in the 53-47%. That two percentage point swing — if it holds up through in-person voting, would tilt the balance. Now from what I’ve seen, females outnumbering men in mail-in voting isn’t unusual but the history of US mail-in voting is very short.

About half of Americans will vote by mail this year.

3) Voter enthusiasm

This chart from Gallup got some attention, as it shows Democrats more enthusiastic to vote for Harris than the were for Biden or even Obama.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

• US October non-farm payrolls +12K vs +113K expected
• Comment from BLS on the US Hurricanes
• US ISM October manufacturing PMI 46.5 vs 47.6 expected
• S&P Global October Canada manufacturing PM 51.1 vs 50.4 prior
• Baker Hughes Oil rigs 479 down -1 on the week
• US construction spending for September 0.1% versus 0.0% expected
• Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for Q3 growth comes in at 2.3% vs 2.7% last
• Geopolitics: US truce efforts on Lebanon fail ahead of the election
• US S&P Global final October manufacturing PMI 48.5 vs 47.8 prelim
• China loosens rules for foreign investors in equities
• November financial market seasonals: Japanese FX officials won’t want to read this

Markets:

• Gold down $10 to $2734
• US 10-year yields up 10 bps to 4.38%
• WTI crude oil up 20-cents to $69.46
• S&P 500 up 0.4%
• GBP leads, CHF lags

The crosscurrents in markets continued on Friday as we count down to the US election. It’s tough to separate moves based on economic data from election de-risking and election positioning. The tension is undoubtedly ramping up and betting odds shifted back towards Harris more-recently, adding a wrinkle.

The main event of the day was non-farm payrolls and the reading was just +12, far short of +113K expected and the US dollar immediately fell hard, 40 to 90 pips, with USD/JPY hit particularly hard. However all those US dollar declines were eventually erased.

Part of that was because the market wasn’t convinced that the jobs market is deteriorating, despite at -112K two-month net revision. The other factor was another rapid rise in Treasury yields, from a low of 4.22% post-data to 4.38% and a close on the highs. That move also helped to sap risk and weighed on commodity currencies and the euro.

It’s not entirely clear what’s driving the bond move but the pain in UK bond markets following the UK budget is topical, especially in scenarios where one party sweeps congress. But it could also be as simple as uncertainty and de-risking around a wide possible range of election outcomes. Finally, the prices paid component of the ISM manufacturing survey was hot, which may have ignited some inflation fears (though I find that a stretch).

Have a great weekend. Rest up because next week could be crazy.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.