Ethereum faced significant pressure due to recent
regulatory actions and a shift towards a more hawkish repricing of Fed interest
rates. However, the cryptocurrency showed a remarkable resilience and staged a
strong rally once the hawkish expectations subsided, and regulatory
uncertainties settled. All else being equal, the recent strong bounce from a
key support level indicates that Ethereum’s pullback may have ended,
potentially paving the way for new higher highs. However, if we get another
round of hawkish repricing triggered by strong economic data, or even a
recession, we could see more downside for Ethereum.

Ethereum Technical Analysis
– Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that Ethereum has
bounced right from the upward trendline and the
61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
The price since then rallied strongly and even broke out of a key downward
trendline before stalling at the 1930 swing high level. We are now seeing some
consolidation beneath the resistance but the
bias for now remains bullish.

Ethereum Technical Analysis
– 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price has
pulled back into the upward trendline where we can also find the 38.2%
Fibonacci retracement level. This is where we should see the buyers stepping in
with a defined risk below the trendline and target a break above the 1930
resistance to reach eventually the 2100 high. The sellers, on the other hand,
will want to see the price breaking lower to pile in and extend the selloff
into the 1681 support.

Ethereum Technical Analysis
– 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see more
closely the current bullish setup with the price reacting to the trendline.
From here we should expect the price rallying towards the 1930 resistance. If
the bounce fails and the price breaks lower, then we should expect the price to
fall into the broken downward trendline first and then possibly extending the
selloff into the 1681 support.

This week is
relatively calm on the data front with only the US Jobless Claims tomorrow and
the US PCE on Friday. However, we will hear from many central bank members,
including Fed Chair Powell today.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

DealHub.io, today announced the acquisition of Subzee, a billing platform specializing in managing usage and recurring pricing models, expanding its leading CPQ into a complete Quote-to-Revenue platform. The new offering empowers Sales and Finance teams to seamlessly manage the entire revenue lifecycle, addressing all revenue streams including recurring, one-time, milestone, consumption and PLG.

As the adoption of new pricing schemes, such as usage-based pricing, continue gaining momentum, organizations are struggling to incorporate these new models into their existing revenue streams. This has increased the complexity of generating accurate billing schedules and forecasts, as well as effectively tracking SaaS metrics, revenue recognition and sales compensation. With DealHub’s new billing capabilities to process and consolidate consumption data from multiple sources, and automatically associate relevant subscription plans and rates, this becomes a breeze.

“PLG, self-service portals and usage-based pricing have rapidly emerged as key revenue streams, yet existing billing solutions are unable to effectively incorporate them into their revenue flows.” stated Eyal Elbahary, DealHub’s CEO. “We chose to incorporate Subzee due to its proven ability to provide CFOs a single source of truth across all revenue streams.”

About DealHub.io

DealHub offers the most complete Revenue Growth Hub that improves Sales-to-Revenue efficiency, predictability, and growth. DealHub’s unified CPQ, CLM, Subscription Management, and Billing stack, powered by guided selling playbooks, transforms antiquated, siloed, manual processes into streamlined, insight-driven, actionable, and engaging revenue flows. Leveraging DealHub’s DealRooms, sellers and buyers can digitally collaborate on every aspect of a deal, spanning all sales stages, and deliver a B2B self-service buying experience.

For more information, visit dealhub.io or follow DealHub on LinkedIn.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior +0.5%
• Market index 216.1 vs 209.8 prior
• Purchase index 170.3 vs 165.6 prior
• Refinance index 439.2 vs 425.1 prior
• 30-year mortgage rate 6.75% vs 6.73% prior

That’s a decent bounce in mortgage applications in the past week as both purchases and refinance activities pick up a little. That said, overall conditions are still rather subdued as evidenced by the index level below:

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Throughout the previous
week, we heard from central bank speakers. The prevailing consensus remains the
same: a cautious approach awaiting further data before determining the extent
of additional tightening. While the majority of the FOMC members expect two
additional rate hikes in the current year, they consistently highlight their
data-dependent approach. The data from last week leans towards supporting a
rate hike, as the housing market indicators surprised to the upside, the US Jobless Claims remained stable, and the US Services PMI were stronger than expected. Naturally,
the upcoming NFP and CPI reports will have a crucial role in shaping future expectations
but if we continue to see positive data, the market’s expectation of a rate
increase by the Fed in July appears highly likely.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that since tapping
into the 0.69 handle, AUDUSD sold off pretty heavily into the 0.67 handle where
we can also find the red 21 moving average and the
50% Fibonacci retracement level.
This is where we should expect buyers to come in to try another rally towards
the 0.69 high. A failure to do so, should lead to a depreciation into the
0.6563 support.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that after breaking
below the rising channel, the bullish trend switched to a bearish one as the
moving averages have also crossed to the downside. At the moment, the price is
getting rejected by the strong resistance near the trendline as there
is confluence with the
38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and the red 21 moving average.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see more
closely the current price action and the clean rejection from the Fibonacci
level. The buyers are likely to lean on the support zone near the 0.6680 level
with a defined stop below the low and target the 0.69 handle again. More
conservative buyers may want to wait for the price to first break above the
trendline before piling in and extend the rally towards the 0.69 high. On the
other hand, the sellers should pile in even more aggressively if the price
break below the 0.6660 level and target the 0.6560 support.

The data calendar
for this week is relatively light, featuring only the US Jobless Claims on
Thursday, followed by the US PCE on Friday. However, despite the limited data
releases, we will still hear from many central bank members throughout the
week.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

Headlines:

• ECB turns a blind eye to recession risks for now
• ECB’s Lagarde: Inflation remains too high
• ECB’s Kazaks: Market bets on rate cuts in early 2024 are wrong
• ECB’s Simkus: Should not rule out the option of a September rate hike
• BOE’s Dhingra: UK wages are responding to inflation with a lag
• Morgan Stanley sees Fed hiking rates by 25 bps in July

Markets:

• EUR leads, JPY lags on the day
• European equities mixed; S&P 500 futures up 0.1%
• US 10-year yields flat at 3.721%
• Gold down 0.1% to $1,921.59
• WTI crude down 1.8% to $68.15
• Bitcoin up 1.7% to $30,668

It was a relatively quiet session as there wasn’t any economic data for market players to work with. But we did hear from some ECB speakers, and they continued to push through with a more hawkish rhetoric as they reaffirmed the rate hike for July.

That more or less is akin to brushing aside the poor economic data since Friday and that is seeing the euro gain some modest ground on the day. EUR/USD is up 0.4% to 1.0945 but the rest of the major currencies bloc is looking more subdued.

USD/JPY and GBP/USD are keeping in narrow ranges with the former flat at 143.55 with the latter up just 0.1% to 1.2725 currently.

EUR/JPY though is among the standout today as it jumps up to above 157.00 to its highest since 2008.

Meanwhile, the aussie and kiwi were initially upbeat in Asia, after China decided to intervene to prop up the yuan today. AUD/USD was up to around 0.6720 in the handover to Europe but is now trading just up 0.2% at 0.6680.

This comes as risk tones are also keeping more stale after a bit of an optimistic start. It looked like markets were wanting to take a bit of a breather but European stocks are now trading mixed with some major indices sitting lower. Treasury yields have also pared their early advance and that hints at more caution ahead of US trading again.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

In case you missed the headlines from yesterday and today:

• ECB’s Kazaks: Market bets on rate cuts in early 2024 are wrong
• ECB’s de Cos: We will raise interest rates again in July
• ECB’s Simkus: At least one more rate hike required
• ECB’s Simkus: Should not rule out the option of a September rate hike
• ECB’s Lagarde: Inflation remains too high

Given the circumstances, it is not too surprising to see policymakers brush off the weaker economic performance towards the end of Q2. They have already signaled a rate hike for July, so there is no backing down now.

If you recall, the euro fell on Friday after the poor PMI figures for June here. And as the ECB brushes off those risks, we are seeing the single currency regather some poise this week. EUR/USD is up 0.4% to 1.0945 currently, also helped out by a calmer market mood and a marginally softer dollar.

But if you want a clear signal of policy conviction, you only have to look towards EUR/JPY as the divergence between the ECB and BOJ has sent the pair higher again to fresh highs since 2008:

This also comes as yen bulls have grown increasingly frustrated awaiting a pivot under the Ueda regime, which hasn’t come whatsoever since April.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Over the past week, many central
bank speakers have shared their perspectives. The prevailing consensus remains
unchanged: a wait-and-see approach is favoured to gauge the necessity of
further tightening. While the majority of the FOMC expects two additional rate
hikes this year, they consistently highlight that such decisions are subject to
the data. The latest data from last week leans towards a hike though as the housing market indicators surprised to the upside, the US Jobless Claims remained pretty stable, and the US Services PMI beat forecasts.

Naturally, the upcoming
release of the NFP and CPI reports will have a pivotal role in shaping future
actions but as long as we keep seeing positive data, it is likely that the
market’s current expectation of a rate increase by the Fed in July will be
realized. On a different note, the BoC surprised with a rate hike at the last meeting citing
stubbornly high inflation with the market expecting another hike from the BoC
all else being equal.

USDCAD Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that after breaking
below the key 1.3225 support, USDCAD
kept on falling with the 1.30 handle being the likely target for the sellers.
The trend has been really strong as the price couldn’t even probe above the
short-term blue 8 moving average. The
trend is clearly bearish, so it’s a tricky environment for the buyers. In fact,
they should have much more conviction if the price rises above the 1.3225 level
again.

USDCAD Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe

On the 4
hour chart, we can see that the price has been diverging with the
MACD for a
long time. This is generally a sign of a weakening momentum often followed by
pullbacks or reversals. In fact, USDCAD kept on pulling back into the trendline and
continuing its downtrend. We can expect the price to pull back again into the
trendline soon which will be another opportunity for the sellers to re-enter
the market or an opportunity for the buyers to ride a reversal in case the
price breaks above the trendline.

USDCAD Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that the
last pullback got rejected at the 1.3225 support turned resistance and the
61.8% Fibonacci
retracement level. Today we have the Canadian CPI and
if we see a miss, we should see USDCAD rally towards the trendline and possibly
even higher. On the other hand, if we see a beat, we may see another push to
the downside.

This week is a
bit bare on the data front but today we have the Canadian CPI that may have a
big impact on the pair depending on the outcome. Later in the week we have the
US Jobless Claims on Thursday and the US PCE scheduled for Friday. We will also
hear again from many central bank members.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

There was a report yesterday stating that OPEC were had invited Guyana, one of the more faster growing oil producers globally at the moment, to join its cartel. However, that was swiftly denied by the country itself:

„We were not formally invited to join OPEC. That is not something we are interested in. We have been invited, however, to participate in OPEC meetings.“

I guess there might be some words lost in translation but for now, it is clear that there is no change to the status quo just yet.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The blackout period ended last week, and we started to
hear comments from several Fed members. The prevailing sentiment remains is the
one of patience and relying on data to determine the appropriate extent of further
tightening. While the majority anticipates two additional rate hikes this year,
they consistently emphasize that such decision will be determined by the
incoming data.

The data we’ve seen last week leans towards supporting
a rate hike, as the housing market data exceeded
expectations, the US Jobless Claims remained
solid, and the US Services PMI beat
forecasts. The forthcoming NFP and CPI reports will undeniably play a crucial
role in shaping the future expectations, however, if we continue to get good
data, we can expect the Fed to raise rates in July, which is also the current
market’s expectation.

Gold Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that after breaking
out of the key 1934 support, Gold
has bounced on the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level
and pulled back into the broken support turned resistance. The
sellers may lean on this resistance zone and pile in for more downside, but
another even better spot for shorts is the trendline where we
can also find the red 21 moving average. The
buyers would need a break above the trendline to gain the conviction for
further upside and target the 1984 level.

Gold Technical Analysis – 4
hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have a divergence with the
MACD which is
generally a sign of weakening momentum followed by pullbacks or reversals. In
this case, the pullback should come into the trendline where we can also find
the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level for further confluence. A break
above the trendline would open the door for a rally into the 1984 resistance.

Gold Technical Analysis – 1
hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that the
moving averages on this timeframe are crossed to the upside as the momentum
turned bullish after the bounce on the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. We
can notice that the buyers are leaning on the red 21 moving average and the
first target should be the trendline. More conservative sellers may want to see
the price make a new lower low breaking the 1915 level before piling in and
extend the fall to a new low.

This week
is pretty empty on the data front as we only have the US Jobless Claims and the
US PCE reports scheduled for the end of the week. However, we will hear again from
many Fed officials but since we have not seen any crucial economic indicator
yet, it is unlikely that they will provide signals regarding the next course of
action.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

Headlines:

• Germany June Ifo business climate index 88.4 vs 90.7 expected
• Ifo economist says storm clouds are forming for the German economy
• Stocks pare gains right after the European market open
• German inflation to slow further in coming months – Bundesbank
• Japan chief Cabinet secretary Matsuno says closely watching FX moves
• SNB total sight deposits w.e. 23 June CHF 508.0 bn vs CHF 510.6 bn prior

Markets:

• CHF leads, GBP lags on the day
• European equities mixed; S&P 500 futures down 0.1%
• US 10-year yields down 5.5 bps to 3.685%
• Gold up 0.5% to $1,931.72
• WTI crude up 0.3% to $69.39
• Bitcoin down 1.9% to $30,320

It was a quiet session for the most part but risk tones continue to stay on the more cautious side after last week’s selling in equities.

The bid in bonds is what is notable today and that dragged stocks lower after a bit of a breather in Asia trading. A softer German Ifo report isn’t helping with the mood, as recession risks are starting to rise again in Europe.

There was also the typical verbal jawboning by Japanese officials on the yen, but USD/JPY is still keeping above 143.00 even if it is down 0.4% to 143.15 currently. The price action there is largely to do with the bond market though I would say, as 10-year Treasury yields are down heavily to start the week.

Meanwhile, the dollar itself is mostly mixed as it keeps little changed against the euro and pound. The franc is gaining some modest ground though, arguably due to safety flows while the kiwi is also holding higher with AUD/NZD accelerating its downside move from last week towards 1.0800 next.

As mentioned earlier in the session, there is something to consider for risk/equities this week:

„But can it (the calmer mood) last? The question last week was whether growth worries or the run up to quarter-end being reasons to have dragged equities lower. If it is the former, things haven’t really changed. If it is the latter, there’s going to be added focus this week as we gear towards Friday. That might make any rebound or slight relief like the one we’re seeing now rather tentative at best.“

Besides that, the news from Russia over the weekend isn’t really impacting markets all too much but it is worth keeping a watchful eye just in case.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.