<ul><li>Fiscal policy shouldn’t force monetary policy to do more</li><li>ECB does not target an exchange rate (when asked about EUR/USD moving to 1.20)</li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Some token remarks by Lagarde to start things off. Nothing that we haven’t heard of already as of late from the ECB.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>There isn’t much in terms of headlines driving the move but perhaps the bond market is one that is worth paying attention to with 10-year Treasury yields now up 3.8 bps to 3.431%, sitting at the highs for the day. That is underpinning yen pairs at the moment, with USD/JPY in particular moving back up to retest its 200-hour moving average (blue line):</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Other major currencies are still sitting within their earlier ranges, so this is very much just a yen move for the time being.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Keep below the 200-hour moving average and the near-term bias stays more neutral but push back above and buyers will capture some form of near-term control at least. That said, there are bigger resistance levels to contend with as highlighted <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/dollar-holds-more-mixed-so-far-in-european-trading-20230120/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>here</a>.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The post-BOJ volatility is still something that traders are dealing with and we have BOJ governor Kuroda (alongside ECB president Lagarde) speaking in a panel at Davos coming up.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>When asked on why the ECB is failing to convinced the market about its resolve to raise rates at a quicker pace, Lagarde said that „I would advise market participants to revise their positions“. (h/t @ LiveSquawk)</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The added pushback here is weighing further on the market mood with equities down at the lows for the day. European indices are down slightly over 1% and S&P 500 futures are down 29 points, or 0.7%, at the moment. 10-year German bund yields are also up roughly 7 bps on the day now to 2.07%:</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<ul><li>We will stay the course with rate hikes</li><li>Inflation expectations are not de-anchoring</li><li>We have to avoid the case of that happening</li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The euro briefly hit the highs for the day on the remarks above, with EUR/USD moving up to 1.0838 before settling back down to 1.0815 now – still up 0.2% on the day though. The slight jump comes as we see euro area bond yields also nudge higher on the day. 10-year German bund yields are up 4 bps to 2.03% currently.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p>The market has been trading on a
risk on mood in the past few weeks taking bad news as good news, with the Dow Jones benefiting.</p><p>The beat in the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-december-non-farm-payrolls-223k-vs-200k-expected-20230106/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>NFP</a> and the miss in the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/ism-december-us-services-496-vs-550-expected-20230106/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>ISM
Services PMI</a> reports sparked a rally that managed to break out
of the Christmas holidays range. Moreover, the lack of comments on monetary
policy or recent set of economic data from <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/powell-we-need-to-stick-to-our-mandate-20230110/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>Fed
Chair Powell</a> gave the market the confidence to keep on reaching
new highs. </p><p>Yesterday though, the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-december-retail-sales-11-vs-08-expected-20230118/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>Retail
Sales</a> data showed a big miss to expectations and the
previous numbers were revised downward. The still high inflation,
rising interest rates and recession fears are all big headwinds for the
consumer and this is starting to be clearer by the day. The market sold off
after the news and even fell back into the Christmas range. Maybe, the bad
news is indeed bad news now?</p><p>DOW JONES Technical Analysis</p><p>In the daily chart above, we can
see how the market broke out of the Christmas range and the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>resistance</a> zone at 33450-33650 and kept on
rallying to new highs. The lack of additional catalysts and weakening momentum
to the upside started to weigh on price action. </p><p>Eventually, the big miss in
retail sales report pushed the market lower and the price is now back again
below the previous broken resistance. If the bearish sentiment continues,
the targets will be the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>support</a> level at 31761 and the October
low at 28650.</p><p>In the 1-hour chart above, we
can see all the recent major catalysts that sparked the rally and the breakout
of the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/“>resistance</a> zone. As the momentum to the upside
started to dwindle the market pulled back a bit waiting for another catalyst. But
the big miss in retail sales data made the market to sell off and return back
into the previous range. </p><p>Zooming in to the 15 minutes
chart, we can see that at the moment the selling momentum is getting exhausted
as depicted by the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/chart-patterns-guide-20220125/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>falling
broadening wedge</a> pattern and the price <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-understanding-divergence-20220429/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>divergence</a> with the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-understanding-relative-strength-index-rsi-20220426/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>RSI</a> indicator. </p><p>We should see a pullback into the
resistance area at 33450-33650 before looking for a continuation to the
downside.
Alternatively, the market may again break to the upside and restart the bullish
trend. This might happen if jobless claims beat again expectations. </p>

This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Here’s a snapshot of the equities space at the moment:</p><ul><li>Eurostoxx -0.9%</li><li>Germany DAX -0.9%</li><li>France CAC 40 -0.8%</li><li>UK FTSE -0.6%</li><li>S&P 500 futures -0.4%</li><li>Nasdaq futures -0.4%</li><li>Dow futures -0.4%</li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>While European indices are seeing modest losses (also in part to catching up to the drop in Wall Street yesterday), US futures aren’t faring any better. S&P 500 futures are down 16 points, or 0.4%, now.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>This continues from the sour mood yesterday with the technical picture not offering much comfort as highlighted earlier <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/a-failed-breakout-is-the-last-thing-that-stocks-need-right-now-20230119/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>here</a>.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The softer risk tones are weighing on the antipodeans in particular, with the aussie and kiwi both down by roughly 0.9% on the day. AUD/USD is down at the lows around 0.6880, with the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/audusd-begins-to-lose-altitude-after-failure-to-keep-above-07000-20230119/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>failed breakout above 0.7000</a> perhaps marking a bit of a turning point in the short-term.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p class=“MsoNormal“>Setting the standard for excellence in the fintech and financial services industry, the UF AWARDS count among the most coveted accolades that a B2B or B2C brand can attain. Winning an UF Award shines new light on the merits of industry players competing for the same target market. The UF AWARDS MEA are no exception. </p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Crowning the best brokers and the best B2B fintech companies in the Middle East and Africa, they distinguish those industry leaders who continue to innovate and reinvent themselves to keep up with the industry’s transformational pace.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Organised to the finest detail by Ultimate Fintech, the UF AWARDS MEA 2023 Ceremony concluded this year’s edition of the iFX EXPO Dubai. On the 18th of January, the exclusive ceremony congregated the best of fintech and financial services under the roof of the Orange Feels Bar – Hotel Indigo Dubai Downtown to applaud the best B2B and B2C brands in the Middle East and Africa.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>From the dozens of companies competing for an UF Award this year, only a few <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://ultimatefintech.com/winning/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>winners</a> emerged. And these winners are….?</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Broker Awards</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Best Multi-Asset Broker – MEA: Exness</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Most Transparent Broker – MEA: Vantage</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Best CFD Broker – MEA: AAAFx</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Best ECN/STP Broker- MEA: Fxview</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Best IB/Affiliate Programme – MEA: Exness</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Best Trading Experience – MEA: Vantage</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Best Education Tools – MEA: YaMarkets</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Best Forex Spreads – MEA: Tickmill</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Most Innovative Broker – Africa: Kwakol Markets</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Best Broker – Africa: JustMarkets</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Most Trusted Broker – Middle East: MultiBank Group</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Best Broker – Middle East: OneRoyal</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>B2B Awards</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Best Trading Platform – MEA: Match-Trader Platform</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Best Social Trading Solution – MEA: ZuluTrade</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Best Multi-Asset Liquidity Provider – MEA: Match-Prime Liquidity</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Best Connectivity Provider – MEA: oneZero</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Best Bridge Provider – MEA: Centroid Solutions</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Best Technology Provider – MEA: Your Bourse</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Best Risk Management Solution – MEA: Centroid Solutions</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Best Client Onboarding Solution – MEA – Shufti Pro</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Best Crypto Solution for Payments – MEA: Match2Pay</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Best All-In-One Brokerage Solution – MEA: Quadcode</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Best RegTech Reporting Solution – MEA: Shufti Pro</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Best Trader Retention Tool – MEA: Solitics</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Fastest Growing Technology Provider – MEA – PLUGIT</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Most Outstanding Innovator in Crypto Payments – MEA: Capital Wallet</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Best Fintech AI Solution – MEA: Shufti Pro</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Best Payment Service Provider – Africa: Swiffy</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Ultimate Fintech would like to thank everyone who participated in the UF AWARDS MEA 2023 and, of course, “Congratulations!” to the worthy winners.</p>

This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Just be mindful that the sources cited are claiming that these are non-finalised figures, noting that the report is set to show the German economy narrowly escaping a recession with a growth of 0.2% in 2023. The forecast for 2024 shows a growth of 1.8%. Adding to that, inflation is expected to be at 6.0% in 2023 and 2.8% in 2024.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The full report will be presented next week on 25 January in any case. But as always when it comes to these sort of forecasts, it’s not so much about the numbers. This first draft will act as a benchmark for which the revisions later in the year will reflect economic and market sentiment relative to how expectations were set at the start of the year.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The euro was dented yesterday after a report came out suggesting that there might just be <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/ecb-sources-50-bps-at-the-next-meeting-and-then-25-bps-afterwards-20230117/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>one more 50 bps rate hike on the cards</a> left for the ECB. But it is recovering well now with the dollar feeling the heat in European trading, as we see EUR/USD rise up to 1.0860 levels at the moment:</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The push higher closes in on the highs at the start of the week as the bullish breakout in <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/terms/e/eur-usd/“ class=“terms__main-term“ id=“a68cd323-8af1-4ecb-a8dd-0aa83e90da63″ target=“_blank“>EUR/USD</a> continues to stay intact. The softer dollar today is but another contributing factor to the technical momentum as of late, which is better depicted through the weekly chart below.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>As seen above, there is scope for the upside push to extend towards the 50.0 Fib retracement level of the downswing from 2021 through to September last year, sitting at around 1.0942. That will be a key point to watch before added resistance comes into play at 1.1000 next.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The euro sentiment today is also helped by Villeroy’s earlier <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/ecbs-villeroy-too-early-to-speculate-about-what-we-will-do-in-march-20230118/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>comments</a>, reaffirming that Lagarde’s earlier rate guidance still stands.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<ul><li>Core CPI +5.2% vs +5.2% y/y prelim</li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>No change to the initial estimates but just keep in mind that while headline annual inflation did drop in the euro area, core inflation continues to pose a problem for the region. That’s indicative of price pressures seeping into the more prominent parts of the economy, not just in fuel and energy prices.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.