Debt ceiling drama returns: Yellen warns of mid-January deadline 0 (0)

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen fired off a warning shot to Congress today, flagging a critical debt ceiling timeline that could rattle markets in early 2025.

  • Debt ceiling reinstates Jan 2
  • Default risk window: Jan 14-23
  • Treasury to deploy ‚extraordinary measures‘ if needed

The timing adds another layer of complexity to an already heated political environment following the presidential inauguration. Markets have largely shrugged off previous debt ceiling standoffs, but the compressed timeline could spark volatility.

„Extraordinary measures“ – Treasury’s emergency toolkit – will kick in if Congress fails to act, but these are temporary fixes, for perhaps 4-6 weeks. The real test will be whether the new Congress can navigate the political minefield around raising the ceiling, especially as Trump wants it eliminated.

It will be worth watching how the new administration’s relationship with Congress impacts the speed of negotiations — we will see who are the real fiscal hawks.

The market also assumes that Trump isn’t serious about bringing down the deficit, something this round of negotiations could reject or reinforce.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Go to Forexlive

At the close: Nasdaq leads US stocks lower 0 (0)

Closing changes:

  • S&P 500 -1.1%
  • Nasdaq Comp -1.5%
  • DJIA -0.8%
  • Russell 2000 -1.6%
  • Toronto TSX Comp -0.2%

On the week:

  • S&P 500 +0.7%
  • Nasdaq Comp +0.8%
  • DJIA +0.4%
  • Russell 2000 +0.1%
  • Toronto TSX Comp +0.8%

We get two more days of trading before the scoreboard resets at zero.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Go to Forexlive

WTI crude oil settles nearly $1 higher as weekly inventory data shows tightness 0 (0)

WTI crude oil settled 98-cents higher today to $70.43.

Oil traded up to $88 early last year but has been treading water near $70 for months. The opening level of the year was $71.65 so it’s on track for a small decline this year.

Today’s EIA US oil inventory data:

  • Crude -4237K vs -1867K expected
  • Gasoline +1630K vs -1080K expected
  • Distillates -1694 vs -313K expected
  • Refinery utilization +0.7% vs -0.4% expected

Global inventories are tighter than some of the commentary suggests but OPEC+ is holding back plenty of spare capacity. A key question early next year surrounds US policy towards Iran and whether Trump will try to eliminate Iranian barrels from the global market. China is the main buyer at the moment so that may prove to be a tall task.

Technically, it’s a waiting game to see if $65 holds but if it can through the next few months the spring seasonal tailwinds should help.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Go to Forexlive

Investizo is Among the First CFD Brokers to Introduce 1:200 Leverage for Crypto Trading 0 (0)

CFD
broker Investizo has announced an improvement in trading conditions: now the
company’s clients can trade cryptocurrencies with 1:200 leverage. This is one
of the first offerings of its kind in the industry.

The
updated leverage is available for more than 30 popular cryptocurrency pairs
such as BTCUSDT, ETHUSDT, LTCUSDT, XRPUSDT and others. This offering aims to
empower traders. It enables them to make the most of the high volatility of the
cryptocurrency market and apply a wider range of trading strategies.

In September
this year, Investizo made significant changes to its trading conditions. At
that time, the company announced an increase in leverage for trading currency
pairs on the Forex market from 1:1000 to 1:2000. This allowed traders with
small capital to significantly increase the volume of operations, which is
especially important for those who are looking for opportunities to scale their
strategies.

The increase
in leverage for cryptocurrency pairs was another step in the company’s overall
strategy to meet the growing needs of its clients. Investizo emphasizes
providing solutions that help traders better cope with the volatility of
financial markets and capitalize on new opportunities.

What opportunities does 1:200
leverage offer traders?

1:200
leverage is a tool that can significantly increase the profitability potential
of transactions. Leverage gives traders the ability to control large positions
with relatively small starting capital. For example, a trader with $1,000 can
manage positions worth up to $200,000.

Also, thanks
to the new leverage, traders are able to diversify their investment portfolios
to include cryptocurrency assets without having to invest significant amounts
of money. This is especially important when the cryptocurrency market is highly
dynamic.

However, it
should be noted that such a solution is suitable primarily for experienced
traders, as it carries increased risks against the background of the
cryptocurrency market’s high volatility.

About Investizo

Since 2019,
Investizo has been providing a wide range of trading services that are aimed
not only at traders but also at investors and affiliates. The company offers:

· Forex trading,
cryptocurrencies, indices, stocks, equities, metals, and more.

· A unique customized
affiliate program that provides remuneration from 70% of the spread or markup.

· Social trading
platform, including PAMM services and copy-trading.

Investizo
strives to offer innovative solutions to meet the needs of market participants,
constantly improving its services and providing the necessary tools to succeed
in the fast-paced world of online trading.

How can you take advantage of
Investizo’s new 1:200 leverage?

To take
advantage of the new offer, traders can visit Investizo’s official website to
familiarize themselves with the trading conditions. Registration takes only a
few minutes, after which you will be able to start trading immediately. The
company also provides the opportunity to open a demo account to test its
trading solutions risk-free.

For more
information, please visit Investizo’s website: www.investizo.com

Note:
Trading cryptocurrencies with high leverage carries a high level of risk. Make
sure you understand the risks involved.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

Go to Forexlive

USDJPY dip holds above the 100 hour MA 0 (0)

The USDJPY moved lower in the US session but after getting within 11 pips of the rising 100 hour MA. THe price has since bounced back to 157.84 currently as the buyers remain in firm control. THe last time the price tested the 100 hour MA was back on December 17 adn Deceember 18 before the FOMC rate decision. That decision helped to subsequently push the price higher .

Yesterday a new high going back to July 17 was reached. The price also moved into a swing area on the daily chart between 157.66 and 158.86. The area is wide but it is home to a number of swing level. If the buyers are to take even more control and potenially make a run to the high for the year at 161.94, getting and staying above that level is required.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Go to Forexlive

AltimaCRM Takes Centre Stage at iFX EXPO Dubai 2025 0 (0)

AltimaCRM by Intivion Technologies, one of the most
innovative Forex CRM solutions on the market, will be attending the upcoming
iFX EXPO Dubai 2025. Held on January 14-16 at the Dubai World Trade Centre,
AltimaCRM will be showcasing its cutting-edge management tools to a global
audience of brokers, prop firms, trading platform providers, and more. Attendees
looking for scalable CRM solutions for Forex brokers can book a meeting to explore AltimaCRM or head over
to Booth #30 during the event.

Intivion already
has over 300 integrations including but not limited MT5, MT4, TradingView and
Trading Central, striking several key partnerships and integrations with
platform and trading providers. Meet face-to-face, schedule a demo with the
industry’s best Forex CRM, or see what AltimaCRM can offer your online trading business
this January in Dubai.

AltimaCRM’s
Advanced Solutions on Full Display at iFX EXPO Dubai 2025

As one of
the most versatile CRMs for Forex brokers, AltimaCRM specialises in a wide
range of functionality. This includes harnessing the latest CRM automation,
enabling record setting Forex lead conversions, effortless management, and
scalability. Of course, all Forex brokers are looking for a CRM that offers the
best sales automation and retention tools, so what makes AltimaCRM unique?

AltimaCRM
is the core CRM platform any broker needs to streamline operations and
enhance profitability. With AltimaCRM’s flexible and versatile interface, users
can optimise their retention data, helping prioritise the most pertinent data
for any retention team. Using centralised data, team members can synergise with
each other and achieve the best results.

Success
starts with centralised communication for Forex brokers and 2025 will be no
different. This is why AltimaCRM was engineered specifically to improve every
element of a broker’s operations. Using friction-free connectivity and leading Forex
compliance CRM tools, brokers can say goodbye to data silos by managing
thousands of leads across various platforms for actionable real-time insights
and data.

Leverage instant
end-to-end automation helps aggregate data and reporting across the entire
spectrum of business functions, resulting in optimal sales performance. Put
AltimaCRM to work for your brokerage and customise any Forex customer journey
through refined touchpoints and a personalised client experience.

Prop Trading CRM Integration

AltimaCRM’s
recent integration with Brokeree’s Prop Pulse system now supports the latest
proprietary trading services. Users can take advantage of several key features,
including the launch of their own proprietary trading services, complete with
tools to start and manage prop trading operations effortlessly.

Prop
Pulse’s synergy with AltimaCRM is on full display, allowing for a completely unified
solution for all prop trading needs and a seamless customer journey. Users can create
multi-step challenges, with structured programs to assess individual traders.
When it comes to prop trading capabilities, AltimaCRM has got you covered
giving you everything you need in managing prop trading operations.

Scale
Any Operation with AltimaIB

For brokers
and introducing brokers seeking powerful tools to both manage and grow
affiliate programs, AltimaIB is the best way to accelerate any business growth.
Launch a Forex partnership program with ease that is built to scale over time.

Any
long-term operation needs the best partners and AltimaIB can help recruit them.
Disrupt traditional partnerships through innovative solutions to help identify
and attract high-performing affiliates. Put AltimaIB to work for you with
customisable commission structures that are designed to manage and incentivise
affiliates.

This
solution can help optimise any revenue stream with tailored tools brokers need.
Whether this is done by boosting capabilities for affiliate reporting or simply
accelerating business growth, see why more brokers trust AltimaIB.

Supercharge
Your Sales Team with AltimaVoIP

Sales teams
deserve the best tools to help train for success. With AltimaVOIP, customer
service is supercharged with state-of-the-art communication tools that help
maximise forex brokers’ customer service and sales potential.

This is
achieved through seamless VoIP integration with any tech stack or operation,
helping eliminate pain points before they even start and fostering smooth
communication. Brokers can train their team with real-time call tracking,
monitoring, and quality assurance.

With
AltimaVoIP, Forex brokers can set the standard for customer service, not only
setting a new industry standard in quality, but equipping any agents or team
with the tools they need to deliver.

Are you
interested in advanced Forex CRM solutions for compliance and lead conversion? Learn
how AltimaCRM or Intivion’s diverse product lineup can take your customer
experience and business to the next level. Find out more by scheduling a demo with the team or by visiting Booth 30#
at iFX EXPO Dubai 2025 this January!

About
Intivion Technologies

Intivion
Technologies
is a bespoke provider of advanced Forex Trading CRM solutions and capabilities
for brokers. As a one stop technology solutions partner for over 15 years, the
company provides an agile tool suite for any broker operation via its flagship
product AltimaCRM. This solution represents the industry’s best performing
forex CRM that more brokers trust to deliver the results they need.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

Go to Forexlive

Can gold count on its best month of the year to start 2025 trading? 0 (0)

It’s a bit of a tricky one this time around with gold prices rising by over 27% already in 2024. Things have cooled off in November and December so far but that arguably owes much to the US election result, which in turn has also impacted the Fed outlook somewhat for next year. A surging dollar has helped to keep things in check, for now at least.

With gold poised to snap its December hot streak (there is still time to recover that of course), is January – typically gold’s best performing month – also under threat?

The recent seasonal pattern also suggests that January is the best month for gold over the past decade. However, that hasn’t quite been the case in the post-pandemic era. One can argue that in part, there is some frontrunning in the buying in December. But is it perhaps to do with China also struggling during this period? After all, there is always the thought of that gold rush coming through ahead of the Lunar New Year celebrations.

That being said, China itself has been a big fan of gold in the last 12 months. That in spite of what the central buying data might suggest.

Looking to next month, there are a couple of things that could set gold back to start the new year. The big one of course is market players still having the fresh memory of a more hawkish Fed from last week. That has put the dollar in a decent spot and we could see broader markets pick up from that momentum at the turn of the year.

The other is that gold has suffered a bit from a technical perspective in the past week. We saw price dip below is 100-day moving average for the first time in over a year but gold buyers did salvage that in recent sessions. The key level is seen at $2,616 currently and price is trading above that at around $2,635 today. That said, it’s tough to look into things when liquidity conditions are thin but this will definitely be a spot to watch when we resume normality next week.

If buyers can maintain the technical control, that will be a positive boost for gold to stick with the January trend.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Go to Forexlive

January still in play for the BOJ? 0 (0)

At the end of the day, policymakers can and will spin the narrative to however they see fit with their decision. And with the BOJ these days, the leaked reports leading up to their meeting seem to be the more important part of the narrative.

The latest inflation numbers from Japan’s capital here today might just keep things in play at the balance. But any such thinking runs in contradiction with the message from BOJ governor Ueda itself here last week.

That being said, he was careful to have not explicitly ruled out a January move. However, he did cast plenty of doubt on that and tried to suggest that they’d be more comfortable in waiting until March perhaps.

The Japanese yen is slightly higher today after the data but again, we’re still caught in holiday-thin trading. So, I wouldn’t look too much into that. If traders have to phase out the odds for a BOJ rate hike next month, there will some scaling back to do for the yen. That considering traders are pricing the decision to be nearly a coin flip for now.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Go to Forexlive

What’s at stake for the dollar in 2025? 0 (0)

At this stage last year, we were talking about how the Fed might cut rates by around six times in 2024. This time around, we’re talking about how they might not even get to two rate cuts in 2025. As thing stand, traders are pricing in just ~36 bps of rate cuts for next year as seen here.

And among those central banks that are slated to continue cutting interest rates, the Fed is the one that market players are seeing with the highest probability of cutting the least. How the times have changed.

The dollar long con looks to be brought forward. But what has changed?

The biggest thing of course is the US election result. Trump’s win has definitely altered the landscape with threats of large scale tariffs against US trade partners and tax cuts. That has thrown a spanner in the works of the Fed, who are still hoping to get inflation back towards 2%.

The disinflation process has proven to be a bit bumpy also as of late, albeit still largely running its course. However, the muddied outlook now makes it tough to envisage a smooth and clear path back towards the 2% target. Not least with the US consumer still running hot, despite a softening labour market.

So, the real risk for the dollar now ties back to the economy and how Trump’s policies might impact all of that. The outlook now hinges on the notion that Trump will eventually get his way in executing his campaign pledges. And that’s reflected in the more hawkish Fed pricing by markets and arguably also among policymakers at the latest FOMC meeting.

As such, the reaction function suggests that any tail risk that materially leads to a different scenario other than that will be bad for the dollar. That being these few couple of situations:

  1. The economy turns out to be much softer in 2025, with labour market slack gathering pace
  2. The disinflation process stays the course and resumes a quicker pace again in the new year
  3. Trump tariffs are not as forceful and high octane as anticipated, leading to less inflation fears
  4. Trump tax cuts hit a bit of a snag and gives markets more time to digest the whole situation

I would argue that right now, emotions are still running high particularly after the latest Fed policy decision. The dot plots and Powell’s remarks suggest a pause in January, which might extend further depending on economic developments.

That’s giving the dollar a tailwind going into the turn of the year. But as we saw with how things played out this year, this sort of tailwind can eventually dissipate and turn the other way around. At some point in the middle of 2024, we were talking about just one rate cut by the Fed for the year as opposed to the six priced in during December 2023.

So, that is pretty much where we’re at. It’s a case of markets having a rough idea of what may transpire in 2025 but nothing is a given. In trading, the journey is just as important as the destination at the end of the day.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Go to Forexlive

ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: USD/JPY pulls back from above 158.00 0 (0)

In
US time on Thursday USD/JPY traded to circa 158.09,
its
highest
since mid-July this
year. The pair pulled back toward 157.50 during the session here,
responding to:

  • December
    inflation
    in Tokyo accelerated for a second month, the government temporarily
    phased out utility subsidies;
  • the
    ‘Summary of opinions’ from the Bank of Japan December meeting
    (when the bank maintained its policy rate at 0.25%) showed the policy
    board members remaining optimistic in its assessment that the
    economy and inflation are moving in line with its projections –
    amidst caveats of course – supporting market expectations for a
    near-term rate hike, perhaps as soon as the January 23-24, 2025 meeting.

JPY
crosses slid also. EUR/JPY’s slide was cushioned somewhat by a
drift down a few points for EUR/USD. There were no fresh notable news items for the euro.

From
China
today
we had data showing that industrial
profits extended
their
decline to a fourth straight month, dropping 7.3%. The
flip side, if you prefer a brighter take, is that the fall was slower than the
10% drop in October. The YTD figure worsened, to -4.7% in
January-November from -4.3% in the January-October period.

Regional equities rose, following a lead from higher Wall Street.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Go to Forexlive