This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
The MSTR stock did nothing for almost two decades! Imagine investing in it early and waiting 20 years to get a return.
If you want to have conviction in your ideas, you need to know what moves your stocks and position for that change.
In the book “The New Market Wizards”, Stanley Druckenmiller said this in response to the question of how he evaluates stocks:
“When I first started out, I did very thorough papers covering every aspect of a stock or industry. Before I could make the presentation to the stock selection committee, I first had to submit the paper to the research director.“
„I particularly remember the time I gave him my paper on the banking industry. I felt very proud of my work. However, he read through it and said, This is useless. What makes the stock go up and down? That comment acted as a spur.“
„Thereafter, I focused my analysis on seeking to identify the factors that were strongly correlated to a stock’s price movement as opposed to looking at all the fundamentals. Frankly, even today, many analysts still don’t know what makes their particular stocks go up and down.”
His number one advice? Do not invest in the present. The present does not move stock prices. Change moves them.
MicroStrategy is basically a Bitcoin play, so you just need to know where Bitcoin is going to trade MSTR stock. No valuation analysis needed.
The catalyst for the latest rally? Trump’s victory.
This is why waiting for the right catalysts is paramount. Not only does it tell you WHEN to trade, but it also gives you an IMMEDIATE feedback on whether you are right or
wrong.
That helps with knowing when to bet more and when to get out to keep your drawdown low.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
The puzzling weakness in
the US Dollar following Trump’s victory looks more and more like it was just a
“sell the fact” reaction. The greenback is now back in the driving seat, and we
might also be seeing some pre-positioning into a potentially hot US CPI report
tomorrow.
At the latest Fed’s
decision, Fed Chair Powell said that they expect bumps on inflation and that
one or two bad data months on inflation won’t change the process. This keeps
the 25 bps cut in December in place even if we get higher inflation readings.
The market though is
forward-looking, and the rise in Treasury yields showed that the market sees
risks to the inflation outlook. Moreover, the red sweep could increase those
fears if the progress on inflation stalls, or worse, reverses.
On the GBP side, this
morning we got the UK
labour market report and although the data was mostly mixed, it leant more
on the dovish side. Overall though, it didn’t change anything for the market or
the BoE.
GBPUSD
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, we can
see that GBPUSD broke through the support
zone around the 1.2840 level and extended the drop as more sellers piled in.
The natural target should be the swing low at 1.2665 level. That’s where we can
expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the level to position
for a rally back into the 1.28 handle.
GBPUSD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
On the 4 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the break of the support which was defining the range between
the 1.2840 support and the 1.3040 resistance. If the price retests the support
now turned resistance, we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk
above the level to position for a drop into the 1.2665 level next. The buyers,
on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to position for a
rally back into the 1.3040 resistance.
GBPUSD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have a minor downward trendline defining the current bearish
momentum. The sellers will likely keep on leaning on it to position for new
lows, while the buyers will look for a break higher to pile in for a rally into
new highs. The red lines define the average daily range for today.
Upcoming
Catalysts
This week is a bit empty on the data front with the most important releases
scheduled for the latter part of the week. Tomorrow, we have the US CPI report.
On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we
conclude the week with the US Retail Sales data.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
“With the election over, small business owners will begin to feel less uncertain about future business conditions,” said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg.
“Although optimism is on the rise on Main Street, small business owners
are still facing unprecedented economic adversity. Low sales, unfilled
jobs openings, and ongoing inflationary pressures continue to challenge
our Main Streets, but owners remain hopeful as they head toward the
holiday season.”
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
Gold is down another 0.7% today as a firmer dollar and higher yields since the election looks to be weighing. Alternative flows into Trump trades such as Bitcoin and stocks are also arguably in play, with gold not quite favoured as much in that sense. But how are things playing out on the charts?
The drop today reaffirms some rejection closer to $2,700 again after a brief bounce following the election result last week. The most notable thing is that we are seeing gold hold back below the broken trendline support from August (white line). And that is keeping sellers in control, alongside a push back under both its 100 and 200-hour moving averages:
That is keeping the near-term bias more bearish now, keeping with the momentum from the US election result.
So, what’s next for gold?
The daily chart shows that the latest fall is nothing too significant but there are a couple of momentum breaks/shifts as seen above.
For sellers, a push to test the October lows near $2,600 would be the first real test of gathering more downside momentum in this latest run here. And if they manage that, then only I reckon one can argue about a deeper pullback for gold. It is one that I’ve been nagging on for a while that it’s been coming.
And if we do get such a pullback, I reckon it will be a much welcome development for the bulls and dip buyers.
The run higher this year has been nothing short of breathtaking and any pullback in the next few weeks will be rather timely I would say.
It would come right before the typical seasonal buying rush in gold that usually coincides in December and January.
In the last 20 years, January has been the best performing month for gold. Meanwhile, the precious metal is on a 7-year winning streak in December trading. As such, the seasonal consideration is a tough thing to ignore if you’re looking at gold in the next two to three months.
Given that potential, any material pullback in gold prices now might just be setting up for a stronger seasonal tailwind when we get to the months ahead. Keep that in your back pocket just in case.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
The price action
in copper remains choppy as the market continues to question Chinese economic
growth and stimulus. On the other hand, we have also Trump’s victory and fears
of a trade war.
Copper has been tightly
correlated to the Chinese stock market in recent years which just shows the strong
dependence of the commodity to the Chinese economy. That should not be
surprising given that China is responsible for more than 60% of global copper demand.
The recent data
out of China did show a little improvement even though it’s too early to draw
conclusions. On the other hand, Trump will likely focus first on tax cuts and
domestic issues rather than going berserker on tariffs.
Overall, the
picture is more bullish than bearish for the copper market but the mixed
signals will likely keep the momentum at bay until we get some key technical breakout
or strong catalyst to trigger a more sustained trend.
Copper
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, we can
see that copper bounced near the trendline
as the buyers stepped in with a defined risk below it to position for a rally
into the key 4.69 resistance.
The sellers will want to see the price breaking below the trendline to increase
the bearish bets into the next major trendline around the 3.90 level.
Copper Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have mostly a rangebound price action between the trendline and the
resistance. There’s not much we can glean from this timeframe so we need to zoom
in to see some more details.
Copper Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have a minor resistance zone around the 4.37 level. The buyers will
want to see the price breaking higher to target a rally into the 4.69
resistance, while the sellers will likely lean on it to position for a drop
back into the trendline. The red lines define the average daily range for today.
Upcoming
Catalysts
This week is a bit empty on the data front with the most important releases
scheduled for the latter part of the week. On Wednesday, we have the US CPI
report. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we
conclude the week with the US Retail Sales data.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
Hello, Itai Levitan here at ForexLive.com 👋, examining why Amazon stock could be a sell around $217. Currently priced just under $209, Amazon might see some upward momentum, but $217 is where profit-takers might jump in. If you’re a medium-term investor or swing trader, here’s why this level could be your signal to exit. Sell Amazon stock at your own risk—this is just an opinion.
🔴 A confluence of resistance levels between $215 and $222
📏 Fibonacci levels supporting the resistance
📉 Channel analysis and the third touch point
📉 Potential downside to $180: A strategic buy zone
🔎 Other factors weighing on Amazon
💡 Key takeaway for medium-term investors
Oh, and don’t forget about Jeff Bezos’s record sales this year—he’s cashed in over $13 billion of Amazon stock in 2024 alone, outpacing previous years. 📈 Whether for Blue Origin, philanthropy, or tax reasons, these sales add to the evidence that a careful approach to Amazon stock might be wise right now.
For more perspectives for investing and trading, visit ForexLive.com. And remember – buy and/or sell AMZN stock at your own risk only.
Amazon stock latest news
Last updated: November 11, 2024
Amazon Under the Microscope in India 🇮🇳
Amazon is feeling the heat in India as regulators amp up their scrutiny. India’s Competition Commission is probing Amazon’s business practices, especially its deep discounts for select sellers, questioning fair competition. With investigations also buzzing in the U.S. and Europe, these hurdles could impact Amazon’s valuation and shake investor confidence. 📉 Keep an eye on this—it could change the e-commerce landscape.
New Data Center in Pennsylvania Brings Hope 🏗️
Amazon’s building big in Pennsylvania, with a new data center on the way. This expansion promises jobs and a boost for the local economy. Investors, take note: Amazon’s strategic growth, even amidst challenges, shows potential for fresh opportunities. 📈 ForexLive traders might want to stay alert—this could have ripple effects worth exploring.
Is Amazon Still a Top Long-Term Buy? 💡
Amazon’s recent earnings were a bit underwhelming, and the stock took a hit. But here’s the good news: for long-haul investors, Amazon’s core strengths in e-commerce, cloud computing, and new ventures remain solid. This dip might be a golden ticket. Amazon’s resilience and growth chops make it a compelling buy for those thinking big picture. 📈
AMZN Stock Valuation: Just the Highlights 📈
PEG Ratio: At 2.48, Amazon’s PEG ratio might seem a bit pricey, but keep in mind it’s backed by strategic, long-term investments that drive future profitability. Think of it as paying a premium for innovation.
EPS Growth: With an impressive EPS growth estimate of 21.06% for next year and a 5-year forward rate of 18.00%, Amazon’s earning power is solid. This is a stock for those who want a growth powerhouse.
Forward P/E Ratio: Amazon’s forward P/E of 33.60 may look high, but it reflects strong expectations for earnings growth. Investors are betting on Amazon’s proven ability to keep expanding rapidly.
For those with a long-term view, Amazon’s valuation suggests it’s worth the price—an investment in continued growth.
AMZN Analyst Recommendations: The Essentials 📊
Positive Outlook: AMZN continues to earn strong ratings, with many analysts giving it ‚Buy‘ or ‚Outperform‘ recommendations. Telsey Advisory Group and Monness Crespi & Hardt recently raised their price targets, reflecting confidence in Amazon’s future growth.
Minor Downgrades but Strong Consensus: While Wells Fargo shifted its rating from ‚Overweight‘ to ‚Equal Weight,‘ the majority remain optimistic. New ‚Buy‘ and ‚Outperform‘ ratings from firms like Scotiabank and Pivotal Research Group reinforce this confidence.
Bullish Price Targets: Recent target hikes from analysts, including Loop Capital and Telsey Advisory Group, signal bullish sentiment. This trend of price target increases bodes well for long-term investors.
AMZN Insider Trading: Key Takeaways 🕵️♂️
Coordinated Sales: Recent insider sales, with key figures like Jassy and Herrington selling shares in alignment, hint at a shared view among Amazon’s top brass. For investors, this coordination could signal a need to reassess risk exposure, possibly hinting at future stock pressure.
Option Exercises Followed by Sales: Executives like CEO Andy Jassy and CFO Brian Olsavsky have frequently exercised options only to sell shares immediately. This pattern might imply a preference for liquidity over holding, a potentially bearish signal indicating cautious insider confidence.
Consistent Large-Scale Sales: The regular, high-volume sales by Executive Chair Jeff Bezos and Worldwide Stores CEO Doug Herrington suggest potential selling pressure. For investors, this repeated insider selling could be a cue to re-evaluate positions, as it may indicate executives see limited short-term upside.
For those tracking AMZN, these insider moves offer important insights—keeping caution in mind might be wise. 📉
For more sharp takes on investing and trading, swing by ForexLive.com. And remember—when it comes to buying or selling AMZN, take the plunge at your own risk! 😎📈📉
This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.
Nothing too major there and the remarks here aren’t going to soothe investors after the disappointing stimulus announcement from Friday last week.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
Crude oil continues to
display a rangebound price action as it struggles to break above the key 72.00
resistance. The Trump’s victory might be seen as bearish in the short term for
fear of the tariffs and a potential slowdown in global growth as other countries retaliate.
It’s worth remembering that
in 2016, crude oil did fall initially on Trump’s victory but eventually rallied
for more than 20% in the following three months on higher global growth
expectations.
The red sweep should see
Trump focusing more on tax cuts and domestic issues which should eventually
lift global growth expectations. If we had a divided Congress, then his first
priority could have been indeed a trade war.
Moreover, we have also central
banks easing their monetary policies and that generally leads the manufacturing
cycle, which is likely to be supportive for the crude oil market.
Crude Oil
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, we can
see that crude oil is struggling a lot breaking the key resistance around the 72.00 handle. The buyers
will want to see the price breaking higher to start targeting the major trendline
around the 78.00 handle. The sellers, on the other hand, will likely keep on
stepping in around the resistance to position for a drop into the 65.00 handle.
Crude Oil Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have a range between the 72.00 resistance and the 69.50 support.
The sellers will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish
bets into the 65.00 handle, while the buyers will likely step in around the
support to position for a rally back into the resistance.
Crude Oil Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have a minor downward trendline defining the current bearish momentum.
The sellers will likely keep on leaning on it to push into new lows, while the
buyers will look for a break higher to increase the bullish bets into the resistance.
The red lines define the average daily range for today.
Upcoming
Catalysts
This week is a bit empty on the data front with the most important releases
scheduled for the latter part of the week. On Wednesday, we have the US CPI
report. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we
conclude the week with the US Retail Sales data.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
Tuesday
The UK Unemployment
Rate is expected to tick higher to 4.1% vs. 4.0% prior. The Average Earnings
incl. Bonus is expected at 3.9% vs. 3.8% prior, while the ex-Bonus measure is
seen at 4.7% vs. 4.9% prior.
The market sees
just a 20% chance of a 25 bps cut in December and, although a weak report might
raise the probabilities a bit, the market will likely focus more on the
inflation figures with two CPI reports left before the last BoE decision for
the year.
Wednesday
The Australian Q3
Wage Price Index Y/Y is expected at 3.6% vs. 4.1% prior, while the Q/Q measure
is seen at 0.9% vs. 0.8% prior. The data is unlikely to change anything for the
RBA although lower readings would be welcomed.
The US CPI Y/Y is
expected at 2.6% vs. 2.4% prior, while the M/M measure is seen at 0.2% vs. 0.2%
prior. The Core CPI Y/Y is expected at 3.3% vs. 3.3% prior, while the M/M
figure is seen at 0.3% vs. 0.3% prior.
At the latest
Fed’s decision, Fed Chair Powell said that they expect bumps on inflation and
that one or two bad data months on inflation won’t change the process. This
keeps the 25 bps cut in December in place even if we get higher inflation
readings.
The market though
is forward-looking, and the rise in Treasury yields showed that the market sees
risks to the inflation outlook. Moreover, the red sweep could increase those
fears if the progress on inflation stalls, or worse, reverses.
Therefore, higher
inflation readings might not change the near-term monetary policy outlook, but
I personally see it changing the market’s outlook and eventually the Fed’s one.
Thursday
The Australian
Labour Market report is expected to show 25K jobs added in October vs. 64.1K in
September and the Unemployment Rate to tick higher to 4.2% vs. 4.1% prior. The
data is unlikely to change anything for the RBA but faster than expected
weakening could see the market pricing in more aggressive rate cuts in 2025,
much like it did with the RBNZ.
The US PPI Y/Y is
expected at 2.3% vs. 1.8% prior, while the M/M measure is seen at 0.2% vs. 0.0%
prior. The Core PPI Y/Y is expected at 3.0% vs. 2.8% prior, while the M/M
figure is seen at 0.3% vs. 0.2% prior.
This report will
likely be seen in light of the US CPI data releases the day before and it might
add to the angst around inflation if both come out higher than expected.
The US Jobless
Claims continues to be one of the most important releases to follow every week
as it’s a timelier indicator on the state of the labour market.
Initial Claims
remain inside the 200K-260K range created since 2022, while Continuing Claims
after an improvement in the last two months, spiked to the cycle highs in the
last couple of weeks due to distortions coming from hurricanes and strikes.
This week Initial
Claims are expected at 224K vs. 221K prior, while there’s no consensus for
Continuing Claims at the time of writing although the prior reading saw an
increase to 1892K vs. 1852K prior.
Friday
The US Retail
Sales M/M is expected at 0.3% vs. 0.4% prior, while the ex-Autos M/M measure is
seen at 0.3% vs. 0.5% prior. The focus will be on the Control Group figure
which is expected at 0.3% vs. 0.7% prior.
Consumer spending
has been stable which is something you would expect given the positive real
wage growth and resilient labour market. We’ve also been seeing a steady pickup
in the UMich Consumer
Sentiment which suggests
that consumers’ financial situation is stable/improving.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.