This according to the NPC Standing Committee, as announced yesterday. For now, the agenda is said to encompass „reviewing the government work report, and examining the report on the implementation of the annual plan on national economic and social development for 2024 and the draft plan on national economic and social development for 2025“.

Adding to that, there will be the usual budget deliberations for both the central government and local councils.

This is typically China’s biggest political event as it will not only set out their goals and targets for the year, but also outline their resolve in achieving them. This will see all lawmakers and politicians gather in Beijing to sort out these economic and social issues.

The political event tends to last for about two weeks. However, do expect plenty of commentary to follow when we get things started in early March next year.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Bitcoin Price Update and Forecast:

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) appears poised to cross the $100,000 mark again as current price action aligns with bullish technical indicators on the daily chart. Here’s a quick breakdown:

1. Donchian Channel Basis Acting as a Magnet:The basis of the Donchian Channel sits at $100,252, which is currently acting as a price magnet. This behavior is reasonable because the basis (halfway point between the recent high and low) often represents equilibrium where buyers and sellers converge. Markets naturally gravitate toward this „mean“ before deciding on the next significant move, and with Bitcoin’s price steadily climbing, the basis is drawing it upward.

2. RSI Trending Bullish:The RSI (Relative Strength Index) at 54 is comfortably above the 50-neutral line, indicating mild bullish momentum. Notably, it has been rising for the past three days, signaling strengthening buying pressure. While not yet overbought, the RSI hints at further room for upside.

3. Momentum and Price Structure:Recent candles show a sequence of higher lows, reinforcing the short-term bullish structure. If the $100,252 level is breached decisively, it could act as a springboard for a move toward the recent highs near $108,000.

Outlook:

• Primary Target: Breaching $100,252 should open the door for a test of higher levels, with $105,000 and $108,000as key resistance zones.
• Support to Watch: A failure to sustain above $99,000 could lead to consolidation near $96,000.

Overall, with the RSI rising and the Donchian Channel basis acting as a magnet, Bitcoin seems well-positioned for another push above $100,000. Keep an eye on how price interacts with the basis for confirmation of the next directional move. There are many ways to perform technical analysis and none of this is a crystal ball so always do your own research and invest or trade bitcoin at your own risk only. Visit ForexLive.com for additional views.

This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.

• Expects Japan to further progress towards 2% inflation in stable, sustainable manner
• Uncertainty surrounding economy, price outlook is high
• Must avoid returning to deflation or low inflation environment
• As Japan transitions towards sustained achievement of 2% inflation, BOJ will support the economy by keeping rates below the neutral level
• But as economic, price developments continue to improve, BOJ must raise rates accordingly
• Leaving accommodative policy for too long could lead to sharp increase in interest rates
• That in turn will be negative for long-lasting economic growth
• It would be desirable for BOJ to guide policy so that it does not reach zero lower bound again

Just some token remarks there by Ueda but he’s not giving anything away on the January decision this time. But his remarks last week here will definitely still be echoing into the new year. So, do keep that in mind when taking stock of the BOJ when markets get back on the saddle in January.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

In other China news:

• China has passed a law introducing a value added tax. Will take effect on January 1 2026 according to Xinhua …. another year away
• Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) on March 4
• China’s National People’s Congress will be held March 5, 2025

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

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This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

The shortened US equity market session on Christmas Eve is often a formality but Santa Claus delivered this year. The 0.7% rally yesterday in the S&P 500 was followed with 0.8% today and the post-Fed rout has now been largely erased.

• S&P 500 +1.1%
• Nasdaq Comp +1.4% (led by +6% for TSLA)
• Russell 2000 +0.8%
• DJIA +0.9%
• Toronto TSX Comp +0.3%

US and Canadian markets are both completely closed on Christmas. The US market will re-open on Boxing Day while Canadian markets remain closed until December 27.

The ‚Santa Claus rally‘ period is traditionally after Christmas and before new years, so we have that to look forward to.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for Q4 growth comes in unchanged at 3.1%.

In their own words:

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2024 is 3.1 percent on December 24, unchanged from December 20 after rounding. After both the advance durable manufacturing report and the new home sales release from the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 1.2 percent to 1.3 percent.

The next GDPNow update is Thursday, January 2. Please see the „Release Dates“ tab below for a list of upcoming release

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The stock market will close at 1pm ET (1800 GMT) while the bond market will close at 2pm ET (1900 GMT) later today. It’s the festive period after all and holiday thin liquidity just means it is tough to make sense of price movements during this time. For those interested, here’s how the S&P 500 has performed on Christmas Eve in the past:

• 2018: -2.71%
• 2019: -0.02%
• 2020: +0.35%
• 2021*: +0.62%
• 2022*: +0.59%
• 2023*: +0.17%

*23 December was the last official trading day before Christmas Day

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

For the longest of time now, the pair has been caught within a 1,000 pips range over the last eight years. And that’s just the extremes in certain years. Most of the time, the pair has nestled within a much tighter range during this period. But with the over 4% decline this year, there is a chance for sellers to finally break the mould.

The pair is once again running into a test of the 0.8300 handle and has been testing waters below that in December trading. The last real attempt to break below that came back in 2022 but that was defended by the 200-month moving average (blue line) at the time. This time around, sellers have already broken below that as well as the 100-month moving average (red line). That suggests a stronger downside bias for the pair on any major technical break now.

The March 2022 low is seen at 0.8202 but a firm monthly close under 0.8300 may yet be enough to set up a platform for sellers to take a run towards the downside and break this eight-year range in the pair.

From a fundamental perspective, the conditions are also lining up accordingly – at least as we look towards the start of next year.

The ECB looks poised to keep cutting rates as the euro area economy is in the dumps. And that is not to mention the prospects of a trade conflict with the US amid Trump’s tariffs. That will keep the pressure on the ECB to stick with their current rate cut path.

As for the BOE, they are still keeping a more gradual approach. And that means some rate cuts with a pause every now and then perhaps. Inflation has come down but not as much as they’d hope and the economy isn’t exactly pushed to the brink just yet. We are seeing things slow down in 2H 2024 but policymakers are not yet thrown into the frying pan for now.

That being said, if the UK economy does face stronger headwinds next year, that might change the picture and weigh further on the pound. After all, traders are only pricing in just a little over two rate cuts by the BOE for next year currently. As such, a step up there could weigh on sterling and provide some support for EUR/GBP.

I reckon that’s the only condition that might play into a positive bounce for EUR/GBP at the moment. Otherwise with EUR/USD slated for parity, it might be tough to fight a weaker euro outlook alongside a technical downside break to start the new year. So, definitely one of the more interesting charts to watch out for in major FX as we look towards 2025.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Let’s dive straight into it with the first meeting date and what market players are pricing in for that.

• Fed: 29 January (~91% probability of no change, ~9% probability of a 25 bps rate cut)
• ECB: 30 January (~99% probability of a 25 bps rate cut, ~1% probability of no change)
• BOJ: 24 January (~54% probability of no change, ~46% probability of a 25 bps rate hike)
• BOE: 6 February (~59% probability of no change, ~41% probability of a 25 bps rate cut)
• SNB: 20 March (~78% probability of a 25 bps rate cut, ~22% probability of a 50 bps rate cut)
• BOC: 29 January (~63% probability of a 25 bps rate cut, ~37% probability of no change)
• RBA: 18 February (~50% probability of a 25 bps rate cut, ~50% probability of no change)
• RBNZ: 19 February (~59% probability of a 50 bps rate cut, ~41% probability of a 25 bps rate cut)

As for the year itself, these are what the rates market is pricing in for the coming 12 months:

• Fed: -36 bps
• ECB: -111 bps
• BOJ: +45 bps
• BOE: -55 bps
• SNB: -53 bps
• BOC: -54 bps
• RBA: -74 bps
• RBNZ: -112 bps

As a reminder, take these with a pinch of salt. It’s all a fluid situation and these odds and pricing can shift quite dynamically in the first half of the year especially.

This time last year, traders were pricing in six rate cuts by the Fed for 2024 with the first one priced in for March. We then swung as much to pricing in just one rate cut during the middle of the year before going back to settle around two to three. At the end of the day, the Fed did cut rates by three times this year but the one in September was a 50 bps move.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.