Fundamental
Overview

The USD weakened across the
board yesterday following another soft US CPI report and benign Jobless Claims figures. The market not only fully
priced in a rate cut in September but also started to price in some chances of
a back-to-back rate cut in November.

Overall, we had a
goldilocks data release with an economy that is slowing but still growing. This
should support the soft-landing narrative and be positive for the risk
sentiment.

The GBP, on the other hand,
keeps on gaining against the US Dollar mainly because of the risk-on sentiment
as the US data continues to support at least two rate cuts from the Fed without
sending recessionary signals.

On the monetary policy
front, the BoE in June left the door open for a rate cut in
August but BoE’s
Pill poured some cold water on those expectations. The next UK CPI report on
July 17th will likely decide whether the central bank will be able
to deliver the first cut in August or wait some more time.

GBPUSD
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that GBPUSD managed to get past the 1.28 handle this week on some hawkish
comments from BoE’s Pill and eventually extended the rally above the 1.29
handle following the soft US CPI report. All else being equal, the target
should now be the cycle high at 1.3140.

GBPUSD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we now have a trendline
defining the current bullish momentum. From a risk management perspective, the
buyers will have a better risk to reward setup around the trendline to position
for a continuation of the rally into the 1.3140 level next. The sellers, on the
other hand, will want to see the price breaking below the trendline to turn the
bias more bearish and pile in for a drop back into the 1.28 handle.

GBPUSD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that after some consolidation around the 1.29 handle, the price restarted
going up today as the positive risk sentiment weighs on the greenback. There’s not
much to do here from a trading perspective as chasing the move at these levels doesn’t
look good. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming
Catalysts

Today we conclude the week with the US PPI and the University of Michigan
Consumer Sentiment survey.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

• Especially concerned about negative impacts of weak yen

As per usual, they are keeping up this facade of being „unable to confirm nor deny“ the intervention move. But after the purported leak yesterday here, they know and we know that these comments are just for show.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental
Overview

The USD weakened across the
board yesterday following another soft US
CPI report and benign Jobless
Claims figures. The market not only fully priced in a rate cut in September
but also started to price in some chances of a back-to-back rate cut in
November. Overall, we had a goldilocks data release with an economy that is
slowing but still growing. This should support the soft-landing narrative and
be positive for the risk sentiment.

Even if the US Dollar
weakens against the other major currencies though, the JPY in this environment
should keep losing ground and the Japanese officials can’t do much to reverse
the trend unless the fundamentals change. Yesterday, the Japanese intervened
right after the soft US CPI report as the strategy now seems to have shifted
from buying the Yen in low liquidity times to propping it up on soft US data.

Overall, the data shouldn’t
have changed much as we will likely need weak US growth data to see some sustained
Yen strength, although it might be short lived if it’s not enough to make the
market to price in more aggressive rate cuts for the Fed on fears of a
recession. As long as we have stable global growth and positive risk sentiment,
the JPY should find it hard to maintain any strength.

USDJPY
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that USDJPY dropped all the way back to the key trendline
around the 158.00 handle and bounced off of it as the buyers piled in to buy
the dip. The sellers will want to see the price breaking below the trendline to
turn the bias more bearish and increase the bets into the 154.00 handle next.

USDJPY Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the bounce on the trendline and the support
zone around the 158.00 handle. If the price gets back there, we can expect the buyers
to defend the support and position for the continuation of the uptrend. A break
above the 160.00 handle should give the buyers even more conviction and
increase the bullish momentum into a new cycle high.

USDJPY Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have some consolidation at the moment. If the price breaks above the
159.45 level we can expect even more buying pressure coming into the market as
the intervention gets erased further. The white lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming
Catalysts

Today we conclude the week with the US PPI and the University of Michigan
Consumer Sentiment survey.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Yesterday, we got some goldilocks US data with another soft US CPI report and good US Jobless Claims. First of all, better than expected jobless claims should quell fears of a deteriorating labour market, at least in the short term. One thing to note is that the data might have been distorted by the shorter week as we had Independence Day last week. Nonetheless, the next week release should give a better picture.

The US CPI, on the other hand, surprised to the downside and it was good news across the board. Moreover, we saw further easing in the policy sensitive OER measure with the Y/Y rate easing to 5.4% and the 3-month annualised rate to 3.6%. The Cleveland Fed new tenant index is considered a leading indicator and it points to further easing in the months ahead. Below you can see the changes in various measures.

The market is now basically certain that we will get a rate cut in September and December, but it has also started to price in a third cut in November. There are some speculations that the Fed might even cut rates in July but I think that’s out of the equation. I can see the Fed cutting rate in July only if initial claims spike big in the next weeks or the stock market crashes like in 2018 signalling a possible policy mistake.

It’s highly likely though that the Fed will be dovish in July and if we get another benign CPI report in August, Fed Chair Powell will deliver a rate cut in August by pre-committing to a cut in September at the Jackson Hole Symposium. September will just be a formality, but if the data will give them even more confidence, then they will be able to ease conditions even more with a dovish SEP.

The current estimate for the Core PCE Y/Y measure is 2.4%, which would be very good news for the Fed. We will see how the estimate will change today after the US PPI data.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Headlines:

• US inflation to hog the spotlight in trading today
• What is the distribution of forecasts for the US CPI?
• The CPI importance is fading
• Dollar a touch softer awaiting the US CPI report later
• UK May monthly GDP +0.4% vs +0.2% m/m expected
• Germany June final CPI +2.2% vs +2.2% y/y prelim
• IEA sees oil demand growth slowing as China consumption eases
• German manufacturers still taking a more pessimistic view for the remainder of the year

Markets:

• EUR and GBP lead, CAD lags on the day
• European equities higher; S&P 500 futures down 0.1%
• US 10-year yields up 0.4 bps to 4.284%
• Gold up 0.4% to $2,381.19
• WTI crude up 0.4% to $82.44
• Bitcoin up 1.9% to $58,477

It was a mostly sideways session and very much expected in the build up to the US CPI report today.

The dollar is marginally softer but all bets are off until we get to the inflation numbers later. There wasn’t much in the moves as it is just a light extension of the narrow ranges earlier.

The euro and pound are up by 0.2% against the dollar at 1.0850 and 1.2870 respectively. But both are holding only within a 25 pips and 30 pips range respectively on the day.

USD/JPY is also just lightly changed, down 0.1% to 161.55 in a rather mundane session.

In terms of data, UK monthly GDP was a beat but nothing that is really too market moving on the day.

US futures remain more tepid while bond yields are also keeping more tentative. This as all eyes are on the main event coming up later.

Hopefully, it’ll kick start some action in what has otherwise been quite a dreadful week in terms of currency moves.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Michael Brown, Senior Research Strategist at Pepperstone, shared on X an interesting finding today. „The EUR overnight implied volatility sits at 8.8% into CPI later on, implying a move of +/-40 pips over the tenor. That’s the lowest level o/n implieds have traded on ‚CPI Day‘ since back in 2021“.

This is just another evidence showing us that the importance of inflation data is starting to fade and the market’s focus has shifted towards growth and the labour market. There are two main reasons for such development:

Central Bank Focus

The first one is that the Fed has been mentioning countless times that they are very focused on the labour market and that an unexpected deterioration will call for a rate cut. In fact, the only path for interest rates at the moment is downwards. If inflation stays high, the Fed will just keep rates steady, but if it continues to ease, the Fed will cut.

Business Cycle

The second reason is tied to the business cycle. In different parts of the cycle, we can see the market focusing on different things. For example, coming out of a recession, nobody cares about inflation because there’s very little pressure on it given that the economy is recovering and there’s lots of unutilised resources in the economy.

On the other hand, when we are well into an expansion, inflation starts to become the main focus as the market expects the central bank to tighten policy to slow down the economy and bring it back in balance. If the central bank keeps conditions tight for too long or it overtightens, then the economy could slip into a recession.

Right now, we are in a „slowing but growing“ phase and the Fed will need to time lots of things correctly to achieve the soft landing. If it fails to do it, the next thing we will be talking about is a hard landing.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

In my view, it is going to be a quite a task for investors to pick up on any fear from the US CPI report later. The estimate shows that we should get a softer headline reading, although core annual inflation is estimated to remain steady as in May.

If it plays out that way and the details are somewhat similar to last month, it will be easy for investors to keep arguing that the disinflation process is still playing out; albeit very gradually.

If it doesn’t, I reckon investors might react negatively at first but will then brush this aside as just being a bump in the road. That seems to be the go to story that central banks are trying to sell these days. And as long as it fits with the more bullish narrative, I foresee stocks will have no qualms with that.

The only way I can imagine equities facing a significant dent is if the main numbers are much higher than anticipated and the details also reveal a setback to last month’s report. In that sense, it’s a tall order to really get all of that in line.

Otherwise, no matter what the outcome is, I can imagine stocks spinning the narrative to however it pleases.

The S&P 500 is already up a little over 3% in July trading thus far. The move higher also has a strong seasonal backing to it, so that could yet exacerbate any continued bullish sentiment in the week(s) ahead.

There will definitely be some pushing and pulling before the month is over. However, stocks certainly do look poised to challenge the gains in February and May at this stage. It’s all on the shoulders of tech shares now, again and again.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental
Overview

The USD weakened across the
board last Friday following the soft US NFP report. The data showed some more labour
market cooling with an increase in the unemployment rate and a decrease in wage
growth. We basically have an economy that is slowing but still growing. The
market seems to be taking it as good news as it still expects a soft landing.

The EUR, on the other hand,
gained last week against the US Dollar mainly because of the risk-on sentiment
as the US data continued to support at least two rate cuts from the Fed but
didn’t send recessionary signals. On the monetary policy front, the ECB members
continue to repeat that they will wait for the data throughout summer before
deciding on a rate cut in September.

EURUSD Technical
Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that EURUSD eventually extended the rally above the 1.08 handle and it’s
now targeting the resistance
around the 1.0885 level. That’s where we can expect the sellers to step in to
position for a drop back into the 1.0812 support. The buyers, on the other
hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into
the 1.10 handle next.

EURUSD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that from a risk management perspective, the buyers will have a better risk
to reward setup around the 1.0812 support where we can also find the trendline for confluence. The sellers, on the other hand,
will want to see the price breaking lower to turn the bias more bearish and position
for a drop into the 1.0727 level next.

EURUSD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the recent price action with the bounce on the 1.0812 level
and the continuation of the uptrend. Today we get the US CPI and the US Jobless
Claims figures, so we might see a spike either into the 1.0885 resistance or
the trendline. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming
Catalysts

Today is the most important day of the week as we get the US CPI and the US
Jobless Claims figures. Tomorrow, we conclude the week with the US PPI and the
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

There is a slight extension to the narrow ranges earlier but it is looking rather one-sided. The greenback is the one dragged lower now in European morning trade, with EUR/USD pushing to a one-month high of 1.0853. The pair is now up 0.2% on the day, with other major currencies also posting roughly similar gains against the dollar.

USD/JPY is down 0.1% to 161.50 while GBP/USD is up 0.2% to 1.2878, helped by a better UK monthly GDP data here. Besides that, USD/CHF is also down 0.2% to 0.8980 and AUD/USD up 0.2% to 0.6760 on the day.

The flows here are quite isolated though, with equities and bonds not really hinting at much. S&P 500 futures remain tepid, down 0.1% on the day. Meanwhile, 10-year Treasury yields are flat at 4.280% currently.

It looks to be some positioning flows as we start to draw closer to the main event later today. It’s all about US data with the CPI report in focus alongside the weekly jobless claims.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior -2.6%
• Market index 206.1 vs 206.5 prior
• Purchase index 144.3 vs 142.9 prior
• Refinance index 532.3 vs 544.1 prior
• 30-year mortgage rate 7.00% vs 7.03% prior

Mortgage applications fell marginally in the past week as a drag in refinancing activity outweighed a slight rise in purchase activity. Overall, this continues to point to a more subdued sentiment in the housing market – which has been the case over the past year or so.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.