That’s a bit problematic for the ECB as pay growth is seen accelerating once again. That is unlikely to put off a December rate cut though as the wages data here hasn’t really translated to any significant reacceleration in consumer prices. So, the hope for policymakers is that wage pressures should fade going into next year. But we’ll see.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
The US Dollar continues to
consolidate despite the higher-than-expected inflation figures and a less
dovish Powell last week. The market’s pricing remained largely unchanged at
three rate cuts by the end of 2025.
This might be a signal that
the market is now fine with the current pricing, and we will need stronger
reasons to price out the remaining rate cuts. This could lead to some general
US Dollar weakness in the short term.
On the NZD side, the market
is pricing an 80% chance of a 50 bps cut at the upcoming meeting and a total of
142 bps of easing by the end of 2025. Inflation is back in the RBNZ’s target
range, so the central bank can focus on growth now especially with the unemployment
rate continuing to climb.
NZDUSD
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, we can
see that NZDUSD bounced from the key support
around the 0.5850 level and rallied into the major trendline
where we got some rejection as the sellers stepped back in. The buyers will
want to see the price breaking above the trendline to increase the bullish bets
into the 0.6050 resistance, while the sellers will look for a break below the
0.5850 support to target the 0.5773 low.
NZDUSD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that the price rejected the swing low level at 0.5912 near the major
trendline as the sellers stepped in with a defined risk above the trendline to
target the break below the 0.5850 support. There’s not much else we can add here
as the buyers will need a break above the trendline to gain more conviction for
further upside.
NZDUSD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have a minor support zone around the 0.5780 level. This is where we
can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the support to
position for the break above the major trendline with a better risk to reward setup.
The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase
the bearish bets into new lows. The red lines define the average daily range for today.
Upcoming
Catalysts
Tomorrow,
we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures, while on Friday we conclude the
week with the US PMIs.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
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After a bit of a pause in the last few days, the dollar is starting to flex its muscles once again. The greenback is sitting atop the major currencies bloc, now extending gains across the board on the day. USD/JPY already traded a little higher earlier but now other dollar pairs are catching up. EUR/USD is currently seen down by 0.4% to 1.0556:
The pair did break below its 100-hour moving average (red line) yesterday but it owed to risk-off flows, arguably driven by geopolitical headlines. That reversed course later in the day but now, we’re seeing steady flows to nudge the pair back below the key near-term level again.
Hold below that and sellers will reestablish a more bearish near-term bias in the pair. So, that’s a key technical development to be mindful of.
Elsewhere, USD/JPY is now up 0.7% to 155.80 while AUD/USD is down 0.4% to 0.6510 on the day. The dollar is seen firming here as bond yields are also pushing higher. 10-year Treasury yields are now up over 4 bps on the day to 4.42% on the session.
Are we starting to swing back to the post-election momentum after catching a breather?
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
Last week, despite the higher-than-expected
inflation figures and a less dovish Powell, the US Dollar couldn’t extend the
gains. The market’s pricing remained largely unchanged at three rate cuts by
the end of 2025.
This might be a signal that
the market is now fine with the current pricing, and we will need stronger
reasons to price out the remaining rate cuts. This could open the door for some
pullbacks and general US Dollar weakness.
On the GBP side, tomorrow
we get the UK CPI report. Last time, the UK inflation data missed expectations by a big
margin with services inflation dropping to 4.9% from 5.6% in the prior month.
In the meantime, we’ve got
a soft labour market report and a lower than expected GDP print. The market is currently
pricing just a 22% probability of another 25 bps cut in December, but that will
likely increase if we were to get another miss in the CPI data.
GBPUSD
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, we can
see that GBPUSD is consolidating near the major upward trendline. This is where we can expect the
buyers to step in with a defined risk below the trendline to position for a
rally into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the
price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into new lows.
GBPUSD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that the pair looks to be bottoming out here and we might see a pullback
into the major downward trendline. The buyers will want to see the price
breaking above the 1.27 handle to gain more conviction, while the sellers will
likely lean on that level to target the break below the upward trendline.
GBPUSD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that the price action has been mostly rangebound since last Thursday as
that’s when the bullish momentum in the US Dollar stalled. There’s not much we
can add here as the buyers will look for a break above the 1.27 handle, while
the sellers will target a break below the trendline. The red lines define the average daily range for today.
Upcoming
Catalysts
Tomorrow we have the UK CPI report. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless
Claims figures, while on Friday we conclude the week with the UK and US Flash
PMIs.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
Last week, despite the
higher-than-expected inflation figures and a less dovish Powell, the US Dollar
couldn’t extend the gains. The market’s pricing remained largely unchanged at
three rate cuts by the end of 2025.
This might be a signal that
the market is now fine with the current pricing, and we will need stronger
reasons to price out the remaining rate cuts. This could open the door for some
pullbacks and general US Dollar weakness.
On the CAD side, we have
the Canadian CPI tomorrow. The market is pricing a 33% chance of another 50 bps
cut at the upcoming meeting. Higher than expected readings might increase the
chances of a 25 bps move and provide a relief rally.
Conversely, lower than
expected figures will likely increase the probabilities for a 50 bps cut and
weigh a bit on the CAD although it might not trigger too much weakness at this
point.
USDCAD
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, we can
see that USDCAD eventually broke through the 2-year high and extended the rally
into the 1.41 handle. From a risk management perspective, the buyers will have
a better risk to reward setup around the previous resistance
now turned support at roughly 1.40 where we can also find a trendline
for confluence.
The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to
invalidate the breakout and position for a drop back into the 1.36 handle.
USDCAD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have another minor upward trendline defining the current bullish
momentum. If we were to get a pullback, we can expect the buyers to lean on the
trendline to position for a rally into new highs, while the sellers will look
for a break lower to target the major trendline.
USDCAD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, we
have yet another upward trendline defining the bullish momentum on this
timeframe. The buyers will keep on leaning on it to target new highs, while the
sellers will look for a break lower to target the next trendlines. The red
lines define the average daily range for today.
Upcoming
Catalysts
This
week is pretty empty on the data front with the most important releases
scheduled for the latter part of the week. On Thursday, we get the latest US
Jobless Claims figures, while on Friday we conclude the week with the US Flash PMIs.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.