<p>China’s parliamentary committees meet in the week ahead, beginning on Sunday in an event that will outline key government policies and targets. Chief among them will be a GDP growth estimate, which government advisors currently recommend at 4.5-5.5%. The consensus from economists is 4.9% but there’s some <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-increasingly-ambitious-with-2023-growth-target-may-aim-up-6-sources-2023-03-02/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“nofollow“>chatter </a>about 6%.</p><p>The two swing factors are 1) pent up demand from the reopening 2) the damaged property sector. </p><p>The government is expected to widen its annual budget deficit to around 3% of gross domestic product this year and issue about 4 trillion yuan in special bonds to support investment spending, according to Reuters sources. Some of that is already priced into markets so risks could run both ways but I see more upside than downside, given China’s (recent) penchant for over-promising and due to the new leadership looking to solidify its authority.</p><p>Spots to watch will be Chinese equities, commodities and commodity currencies. AUD/USD showed some life on Friday but was unable to get above the weekly high.</p><p>For more, here’s a <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.reuters.com/world/china/what-look-china-kicks-off-its-annual-session-parliament-2023-03-02/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“nofollow“>factbox on the NPC</a>.</p>

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.