Dollar fails to seal the deal against the commodity currencies this week


I already outlined the technical predicament for AUD/USD earlier here. And the charts for USD/CAD and NZD/USD are also pointing to a lack of technical follow through by dollar bulls on the week.

In the case of USD/CAD, the pair did manage a push above its 200-day moving average (blue line) but is ultimately seeing that falter today. That is similar to AUD/USD as highlighted in the linked post above. For USD/CAD, the ceiling appears to be at the 50.0 Fib retracement level at 1.3538 on the week.

In any case, the fall back below the 200-day moving average of 1.3480 is the more significant development in trading today. And just like AUD/USD, the near-term bias is also shifting as price falls below the 100-hour moving average of 1.3483 currently.

Looking to NZD/USD:

There was a push below 0.6100 during the week but it fell short in breaching the 200-day moving average (blue line). That coincides with the December low, which was also defended by the key level.

As such, buyers are very much still in the game. And even though the near-term chart is favouring sellers for now, the turn in broader market sentiment and resilience among other commodity currencies could help to translate to better fortunes for the kiwi.

Either way, the fact is that buyers have a clear line in the sand to make their stand now. And that is the 200-day moving average at 0.6089.

To sum up, the dollar did make a strong case for a run higher against the commodity currencies this week. But it looks like it is falling short in sealing the deal as we wrap things up before the weekend. Or is there time for yet another twist in the story?

This article was written by Justin Low at

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