the market continued to trade on the soft-landing narrative. In fact, despite
the slightly higher than expected US CPI figures,
the US Jobless Claims improved
further and the US PPI data
missed forecasts. Moreover, the Fedspeak has been generally neutral with no
strong pushback against the market’s rate cuts expectations. Today, the market
will be closed for MLK Day, but we will have some important events throughout
the week.
Dow Jones Technical
Analysis – Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, we can see that the Dow Jones recently
bounced on the red 21 moving average and managed
to print a new all-time high. The sellers stepped in to position for a
correction into the 37066 level, but they will need a break below the moving
average to further increase their bearish bets. The buyers, on the other hand,
are likely to lean again on the moving average to position for a rally into
another all-time high.
Dow Jones Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the
trendline that’s
been defining the uptrend since last November got breached recently. We can
also notice that the price is diverging even
more with the MACD after
posting a new all-time high last week. This is generally a sign of weakening
momentum often followed by pullbacks or reversals. In this case, it might be
another bearish confluence for
the sellers.
Dow Jones Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, we can see more
closely the current price action and the divergence with the MACD. We can also notice
that the price had a hard time breaking above the 37777 high with multiple
rejections and eventually a pullback. The sellers will want to see the price
breaking below the swing low around the 37425 level to increase the bearish
bets, while the buyers will likely lean on the swing low level to try another
breakout.
Upcoming Events
Tomorrow, all eyes will be on Fed’s Waller as the
market will be eager to see if he decides to pushback against the aggressive
rate cuts expectations. On Wednesday, we will get the US Retail Sales report
while on Thursday we will see the latest US Jobless Claims figures. Finally, on
Friday, we conclude the week with the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
survey.
This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.