Friday, the Dow Jones pulled back as a hot US PPI report
weighed on the market. In fact, the Treasury yields rose, and the rate cuts
expectations got trimmed some more as fears of stickier inflation started to
creeping in. The Fed members though keep on dismissing the latest figures as
something expected and continue to repeat that the disinflationary trend
remains intact. This suggests that the Fed is not even considering rate hikes
and in the worst-case scenario could just delay rate cuts. The market might
continue to like this as long as the economic data remains good. Today the
market will be closed for the Presidents Day and will resume trading tomorrow.
Dow Jones Technical
Analysis – Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, we can see that the Dow Jones broke
below the trendline and
bounced on the red 21 moving average to end
up back around the highs. The divergence with the
MACD
generally signals a weakening momentum which is often followed by pullbacks or
reversals. In this case, the targets for the sellers should be the 37777 support and the
37066 swing low. The buyers will need the price to break the all-time high to
invalidate the bearish setup and position for even higher highs.
Dow Jones Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we
also had the 50% Fibonacci
retracement level for confluence around
the daily red 21 moving average. The price is now around the highs, and this is
where the sellers are likely to pile in with a defined risk above the all-time
high to position for a drop into the 37777 support.
Dow Jones Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we
have a support zone around the 38500 level where we can find the Fibonacci
retracement levels and the red 21 moving average. This is where we can expect
the buyers to pile in with a defined risk below the zone to position for a
rally into a new all-time high. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to
see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the 37777 level.
Upcoming Events
This week is basically empty on the data front with just
the release of the FOMC Meeting Minutes on Wednesday followed by the US Jobless
Claims and the US PMIs on Thursday.
This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.