ECB accounts: Plausible to be in a position to start easing policy at June meeting

  • That is if additional evidence received by then confirmed the medium-term inflation outlook embedded in the March projections
  • A few members felt sufficiently confident that the three elements of the reaction function gave grounds for a reduction in the policy rates already at the present meeting
  • The risk of undershooting the inflation target and eventually having to pay too high a price in terms of declining activity was now seen as being at least as high as the risk of acting too early and overshooting the target
  • Broad consensus to wait until the next monetary policy meeting to see further evidence of, and gain sufficient confidence in, a timely and sustained return of inflation to target
  • Members stressed the value of waiting until June for further evidence confirming, or indicating a change to, the outlook
  • Members stressed that maintaining a data-dependent approach with full optionality at every meeting was warranted
  • Data dependence meant not overly focusing on one data point, as the path many indicators took was likely to be bumpy
  • Members felt that markets had understood the ECB’s communication and reaction function and were prepared for the possibility of a rate cut at the June meeting
  • Full accounts

The most important takeaway from all this is the final bullet point. That being the ECB is prepared for a June rate cut and that they are comfortable with the idea that markets are also prepared for that. ‚Nuff said.

This article was written by Justin Low at

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