• It will depend on the inflation outlook
• Then, we have to diagnose the underlying dynamic, not just the overall inflation rate
• And through that, assess how quickly inflation is going to fall
• Thirdly, is how quickly these interest rate increases are restricting the economy and bringing down inflation
• For these reasons, we have no longer indicated or pre-announced what the expectation is for the next meeting or for the upcoming meetings
• The focus should be on understanding every data point that comes in
• If by May, the macro projections remain on track, then a rate hike will be appropriate
• Full transcript

That’s a comprehensive summary of the viewpoint by the ECB at the moment but the fact that most policymakers are angling the narrative to focus on core inflation does implicitly say that they are looking for another rate hike at least.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.