- The Fed left interest rates unchanged as
expected with basically no change to the statement. The Dot Plot still showed
three rate cuts for 2024 and the economic projections were upgraded with growth
and inflation higher and the unemployment rate lower. - Fed Chair Powell
maintained a neutral stance as he said that it was premature to react to the
recent inflation data given possible bumps on the way to their 2% target. - The US CPI and
the US PPI beat
expectations for the second consecutive month. - The US Jobless Claims beat
expectations across the board. - The latest US Manufacturing
PMI
beat expectations while the Services PMI missed slightly. Both the measures
remain in expansion though. - The market expects the first rate cut in June.
EUR
- The ECB left interest rates unchanged as
expected at the last meeting revising inflation and growth expectations
downwards and maintaining the usual data dependent language. - The recent Eurozone CPI beat
expectations. - The labour market remains historically
tight with the unemployment rate hovering at record lows. - The latest Eurozone PMIs beat
expectations on the Services side while the Manufacturing one missed dropping
further in contraction. - The market expects the ECB to cut rates in June.
EURUSD Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, we can see that EURUSD sold off
into the weekend as the US data surprised once again to the upside. The trend
might have changed as the price continues to print lower lows and lower highs
with the moving averages being
crossed to the downside. The price bounced on the 1.08 handle as the selloff
got a bit overstretched as depicted by the distance from the blue 8 moving
average. In such instances, we can generally see a pullback into the moving
average or some consolidation before the next move.
EURUSD Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe
On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the pair
bounced on a key support around
the 1.08 handle and it’s now at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
This is where we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above
the Fibonacci level to position for a drop back into the 1.08 support targeting
a break below it. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price
breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into the 1.10 handle.
EURUSD Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, we can see more
closely the key levels marked on the chart. We now have a counter-trendline and
the red 21 moving average giving support for the buyers. If we were to get a
pullback, the buyers will likely lean on the trendline to position for a rally
into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price
breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into new lows.
Upcoming Events
Today we have the US Durable Goods Orders and the US
Consumer Confidence report. Tomorrow, we have Fed’s Waller speaking. On
Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures, while on Friday we
conclude with the US PCE and Fed Chair Powell.
This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.