• Dollar remains pinned down to start the new week
• Major central bank decisions to dominate the agenda in trading this week
• ECB’s de Guindos: Our projections show inflation will hover around 2% by end of 2025
• ECB’s Kažimír: Will almost surely wait until December for next rate cut
• Eurozone July trade balance €21.2 billion vs €22.3 billion prior
• Italy August final CPI +1.1% vs +1.1% y/y prelim
• Switzerland August producer and import prices +0.2% vs 0.0% m/m prior
• SNB total sight deposits w.e. 13 September CHF 466.8 bn vs CHF 455.9 bn prior

Markets:

• USD lags on the day
• European equities mixed; S&P 500 futures down 0.1%
• US 10-year yields down 0.5 bps to 3.643%
• Gold up 0.2% to $2,581.04
• WTI crude up 1.0% to $69.36
• Bitcoin down 0.8% to $58,663

There weren’t any headlines that really stood out on the session but that didn’t stop traders from kick starting the week with a bit of action.

It was all about positioning flows as the dollar lagged across the board, falling against the rest of the major currencies bloc. USD/JPY in particular dipped to a low of 139.57 during the session, its lowest since July last year. That before returning back to hover in and around the 140.00 mark.

The drop in the dollar comes as yields stay pressured, with 2-year Treasury yields in particular continuing to flirt with the 2023 low near 3.55%.

EUR/USD nudged higher to 1.1120 levels while GBP/USD is contesting the 1.3200 mark, up 0.5% on the day. Meanwhile, AUD/USD and NZD/USD are both up 0.6% to 0.6745 and 0.6190 respectively. That despite risk sentiment being more tentative during the session.

European indices are a little mixed after a slightly softer start, with US futures also keeping little changed overall.

In the commodities space, gold is holding up after the break to fresh record highs last week. The precious metal is up another 0.2% to $2,581 and hoping to continue that form into the Fed later this week.

It’s all about the major central bank meetings this week and the Fed is the one most anticipated. That will keep markets on edge with positioning flows set to dominate proceedings in the run up to the meeting.

For now, it looks like traders are looking for a more dovish Fed at least.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.