- What’s priced in for the Fed outlook ahead of the CPI data today?
- UK July monthly GDP -0.5% vs -0.2% m/m expected
- Eurozone July industrial production -1.1% vs -0.7% m/m expected
- German government to downgrade GDP forecast for the year, sees contraction of 0.3%
- German economy ministry says current indicators point to weak Q3
- PBOC says will support prices to rise moderately
- China says it has not issued a ban on purchase and/or use of iPhones
- Japan’s Matsuno confirms he will remain as chief Cabinet secretary after the reshuffle
- Putin does not rule out military cooperation with North Korea amid Kim Jong Un’s visit
Markets:
- NZD leads, AUD lags on the day
- European equities lower; S&P 500 futures down 0.1%
- US 10-year yields up 4.4 bps to 4.308%
- Gold down 0.1% to $1,911.24
- WTI crude up 0.6% to $89.41
- Bitcoin up 0.5% to $26,191
It was a slow session as markets are caught in a bind waiting on the US CPI data to come later.
The dollar was steadier throughout, holding light gains against the major currencies bloc mostly. The ranges for the day are still leaving a lot to be desired though, as traders are awaiting the inflation numbers before firming up any convictions.
GBP/USD did see a slight drop from 1.2485 to a low of 1.2441 during the session, after the UK economy contracted by more-than-expected in July. But price is seen bouncing back to 1.2470 now as we await the main event later today.
Higher bond yields are also something to be wary about, with both European and US bond yields rising. The former is helped by escalating odds of a ECB rate hike for tomorrow while the latter is seeing 10-year yields seeking a potential breakout above 4.30% ahead of the CPI data.
Meanwhile, stocks remain more tepid with European indices posting losses in following the drop in US equities yesterday.
It’s now all about the US CPI data, so let’s see what that has to offer and how it will shape things up before more US data and the ECB decision tomorrow.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.