For those who have seen my daily posts/videos on the GBPUSD (any of them), the pair has been trading in an up-and-down trading range going back to December 14. That range is between 1.2600 and 1.2800.

Today, the price moved sharply lower after the stronger US jobs report, and the price move to a lower swing area between 1.2602 to 1.26137. The low price today reached 1.26147 – just above the high of that swing area – and has bounced. The bounce has taken the price up to around 1.2640.

What next?

There is some resistance at 1.2647 area. If that level holds, then we should see a move back down to retest the low extreme target.

If it moves below 1.2602, the next key target comes in at the 200-day MA at 1.25607. The price of the GBPUSD has not traded below the 200 day MA since November. On a test, I would expect buyers to lean on the first look (with stops on a break below).

If the price does move above 1.2647, there could be some disappointment on the failure to get outside of the range. Be aware.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.