Goldman Sachs has raised its forecast for USD/JPY to 155 (from 145) (3 month horizon)

Goldman Sachs forecasts for USD/JPY:

  • 3 months 155 (the prior forecast for 3 months out was 145)
  • 6 months 150 (prior 142)
  • 12 months 145 (prior 140)

These are from a GS note sent to client on Friday.

GS cite a “benign macro risk environment“ for its bearish view on yen. GS analysts also say they don’t expect rate cuts from the Federal Reserve to lift the yen:

  • „If anything, the anticipation of adjustment cuts has reduced the probability of the recession risks that tend to activate the yen’s safe-haven appeal.”

Over the past many, many months Goldman Sachs have been a stand out amongst analysts in not expecting a US recession, the firm has consistently had its recession probability forecast well under consensus.

USD/JPY update as of Friday afternoon, US time:

ps. Join in on Monday morning Asia time / Sunday evening US time when Asian markets react to this from Bostic:

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at

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