Goldman Sachs maintains its recommendation for a short position in EUR/CAD with a target of 1.42 and a stop at 1.50. The rationale behind this trade is largely based on the resilience of the U.S. economy and the potential for upside in the Bank of Canada’s monetary policy.

Key Points:

• Strategic Focus: Goldman Sachs is focused on tactical, relative value opportunities that are likely to be resilient against further volatility in the U.S. dollar.

• Pair Selection: EUR/CAD is the preferred G10 currency pair for this strategy.

• Resilient U.S. Economy: The U.S. economy continues to show resilience despite various market uncertainties. This strengthens the CAD as it is closely tied to the U.S. economy due to trade relations.

• Bank of Canada’s Upside: There is scope for the Bank of Canada (BoC) to tighten its monetary policy further, which would benefit the Canadian Dollar (CAD).

• Target and Stop: The firm is targeting a move towards 1.42 in the EUR/CAD pair, with a stop at 1.50. This implies a negative view on the Euro relative to the Canadian Dollar for the period ahead.

Implications:

For Traders:

• Trade Structure: Those interested in following Goldman’s guidance might consider entering a short position in EUR/CAD, keeping an eye on the target and stop levels.

• Risk Management: Traders should be cautious of the risks involved, especially considering the various global macroeconomic factors that can affect currency valuations.

For Policymakers:

• Monetary Policy: The positioning suggests an expectation that the BoC may be more hawkish in its monetary policy compared to the European Central Bank (ECB), which may influence rate decisions.

Conclusion:

According to Goldman Sachs, the EUR/CAD pair offers a high-conviction short opportunity mainly based on the strong U.S. economy and the potential for hawkish monetary policy from the Bank of Canada. Traders interested in tactical, relative value plays might find this analysis and the subsequent trade idea valuable. However, it is crucial to consider risk factors and keep an eye on macroeconomic indicators that may affect the trade.

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This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.