MUFG: EUR/USD outlook amid French elections and June NFP print

0
(0)

MUFG discusses the potential impact of the French elections and the June NFP print on EUR/USD. The focus is on the risk premium already priced into EUR/USD and how the election results could influence further movements.

Key Points:

  1. Current Situation:

    • Stabilization: EUR/USD has stabilized around the 1.0700 level after initially dropping by two big figures following the announcement of snap elections in France.
    • Risk Premium: MUFG estimates a 1.0% risk premium is currently priced into EUR/USD.
  2. First Round of Elections:

    • Impact of Results: The first round of the French elections on Sunday will provide a clearer picture of the support for right and left parties.
    • Potential Outcomes:
      • Strong Performance by RN & NPF: If right-wing parties like National Rally (RN) and left-wing parties like New Popular Front (NPF) perform strongly, EUR/USD could move closer to the 1.0500 level.
      • Surprise from Centrists: If centrist parties or Les Republicains perform better than expected, this could lead to spread narrowing and modest EUR gains.
  3. Next Week’s NFP Print:

    • Economic Data: The June Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) print will also be a key event to watch, potentially adding to EUR/USD volatility depending on the results.

Conclusion:

MUFG highlights that the French elections and the June NFP print will be crucial events for EUR/USD. Strong performances by RN & NPF could push EUR/USD towards 1.0500, while better-than-expected results from centrists could support modest EUR gains. The current 1.0% risk premium suggests that markets are already pricing in some degree of political risk, but the actual election results will likely dictate the direction of EUR/USD in the coming week.

For bank trade ideas, check out eFX Plus. For a limited time, get a 7 day free trial, basic for $79 per month and premium at $109 per month. Get it here.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Go to Forexlive

Wie hilfreich war dieser Beitrag?

Klicke auf die Sterne um zu bewerten!

Durchschnittliche Bewertung 0 / 5. Anzahl Bewertungen: 0

Bisher keine Bewertungen! Sei der Erste, der diesen Beitrag bewertet.

Es tut uns leid, dass der Beitrag für dich nicht hilfreich war!

Lasse uns diesen Beitrag verbessern!

Wie können wir diesen Beitrag verbessern?