• The Fed left interest rates unchanged as expected at the last meeting with basically no
  change to the statement. The Dot Plot still showed three rate cuts for 2024 and
  the economic projections were upgraded with growth and inflation higher and the
  unemployment rate lower.
• The US CPI beat expectations for the third
  consecutive month, while the US PPI came in line with forecasts.
• The US NFP beat expectations across the board
  although the average hourly earnings came in line with forecasts.
• The US ISM Manufacturing PMI beat expectations by a big margin with
  the prices component continuing to increase, while the US ISM Services PMI missed with the price index dropping to
  the lowest level in 4 years.
• The US Retail Sales beat expectations across the board by a
  big margin with positive revisions to the prior figures.
• The market now expects the first rate cut in
  September.

NZD

• The RBNZ kept its official cash rate
  unchanged as
  expected with no change as the central bank continues to state that the OCR
  will need to remain at restrictive level for a sustained period.
• The latest New Zealand inflation data printed in line with expectations
  supporting the RBNZ’s patient stance.
• The labour market report beat expectations across the
  board with lower than expected unemployment rate and higher wage growth.
• The Manufacturing PMI improved in February remaining in
  contraction while the Services PMI increased further holding on in
  expansion.
• The market expects the first cut in
  August.

NZDUSD Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that NZDUSD is
struggling to break below the key support zone
around the 0.5870 level. This is where we can expect the buyers to pile in with
a defined risk below the zone to position for a rally into the major trendline. The
sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to
increase the bearish bets into the low at 0.5780, although they will have a
much better risk to reward setup around the trendline where they will also find
the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level
for confluence.

NZDUSD Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we got a spike
lower tonight following the news of Israeli retaliation against Iran but the
market faded the move completely as Iran downplayed the airstrikes. We can also
notice that we have a strong divergence with the
MACD which is
generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or
reversals. In this case, it might be a signal for a bigger reversal, and it
might even end up being a double bottom with the
major trendline as the target. In fact, the buyers will likely increase the
bullish bets into the major trendline if the price were to break above the
neckline at 0.5933.

NZDUSD Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see more
clearly the divergence with the MACD which has been going on since the 0.60
handle. We can also notice that we have a minor resistance zone around the 0.59
handle where we can also find the red 21 moving average for
confluence. This is where the sellers are likely to step in with a defined risk
above the level to position for a break below the key support zone. The buyers,
on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the
bullish bets into new highs.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.