US:
- The Fed left interest rates unchanged as
expected. - The macroeconomic projections were revised higher
as the economy showed much stronger resilience than expected and the Dot Plot
showed that the majority of members still expects another rate hike by the end
of the year with less rate cuts in 2024. - Fed Chair Powell
reaffirmed their data dependency but added that they will proceed carefully as
they are trying to find the optimal level of rates. Powell also added that the
soft landing is not the base case at the moment, although they are aiming for
it. - The latest US CPI came
in line with expectations, so the market’s pricing remained roughly the same. - The labour market
displayed signs of softening although it remains fairly solid as seen also
yesterday with the strong beat in Jobless Claims. - The market doesn’t expect the Fed to hike again at
the moment.
New Zealand:
- The RBNZ kept its official cash rate unchanged at the
last meeting while stating that it will remain at the restrictive level for the
foreseeable future to ensure that inflation comes down back to target. - The recent New Zealand inflation and employment data surprised to the upside but
the PMIs continue to slide further into contraction. - The wage growth has also missed
expectations and it’s something that the central banks are watching closely. - The recent New Zealand Retail Sales beat expectations although the data
remains deeply negative. - The RBNZ is expected to keep the
cash rate steady at the next meeting.
NZDUSD Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, we can see that NZDUSD has
finally pulled back all the way up to the 0.5987 resistance where it
sold off from following the more hawkish than expected FOMC dot plot. The price
action remains choppy, but the sellers should start coming back into the market
with strength unless the price breaks above the resistance invalidating the
bearish setup.
NZDUSD Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe
On the 4 hour chart, we can see more closely the
strong selloff from the resistance. The price is currently pulling back. Things
are messy at the moment as there’s no clear divergence between central banks as
they are all moving to the sidelines and watching the tightening to day
filtering through the economies.
NZDUSD Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we
have a minor resistance at the previous swing high with the 50% Fibonacci
retracement level for confluence. This
is where the sellers should step in with a defined risk above the level and
target another selloff into the 0.5860 support. More conservative sellers might
want to wait for the price to break below the counter-trendline to
pile in and extend the fall into the support.
Upcoming Events
Today the biggest event
will be the Flash PMIs for the US.
This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.