WTI crude is holding at key support still as seen above, although price did break below its 200-day moiving average (blue line) earlier in the week. Sellers are looking to push the agenda but buyers have been stubborn around the support region around $93.50 on the daily chart.

OPEC+ is said to be considering an output increase of around 100k to 400k bpd today but really, does it matter? In June, compliance for the bloc was 320% so this is really nothing as compared to what they cannot pump out at the moment. The fact of the matter is that the bloc just cannot produce more.

I’m still an oil bull as the backdrop of declining inventories (also at very low levels) and waning supply conditions are still massive tailwinds for the commodity. But recession risks are a key headwind to deal with and that won’t go away any time soon either.

There is a strong case for oil to push back well above the $100’s but sometimes, you have to respect the charts.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.