The global asset that dominated the conversation in much of 2023 and particularly in Q4 was the 10-year Treasury note. However after a tumultuous year, it finishes nearly unchanged.

The 10-year closed 2022 at 3.83% and it closes today at 3.87%. In the meantime it fell as low as 3.25% on the spring regional US banking crisis and as high as 5.02% on the October debt rout.

The yearly chart paints a doji star, which is an indication of further volatility ahead.

Other changes on the bond curve:

• Two year yields down 11.3 bps on the year
• 30-year yields up 9 bps on the year

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Someone has a Canadian dollar order that needs to be filled before the turn of the year.

The loonie is soaring today on steady bids despite a deterioration in risk sentiment. There’s no data out of Canada and the oil market isn’t doing much today so this is purely a flow-driven move. We’re seeing some other ones as well, which is what you would expect at this time of year.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

At this time last year, everyone was fretting about a 2023 recession. That’s the kind of setup that led to a 55% rally in the Nasdaq (with some help from AI) and a 24% rally in the S&P 500.

How does the market feel going into 2024?

Recession calls have disappeared, stocks are up nine weeks in a row and there’s the Fear & Greed Index.

My base case is that we see rotation from megacap tech into broader indexes or value early in the year but there’s a compelling case that there are trillions of dollars on the sidelines that will flow into stocks in 2024.

‚Extreme greed‘ is never a good sign but there has been an extreme change in the fundamentals, with yields dropping, the Fed signalling a pivot and inflation looking like it’s dead.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.