<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Interest rate futures are pricing in a roughly 96% chance for a 25 bps move for the next BOE policy meeting in March. I would say that is pretty much what one should expect especially after the February decision <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/boe-raises-bank-rate-by-50-bps-to-400-as-expected-20230202/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>here</a>. The pound may be looking upbeat with cable rising above 1.2100 so far on the session but that owes a little to a slight near-term release as noted <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/sterling-jumps-after-upbeat-uk-pmi-data-20230221/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>here</a>. In the bigger picture, I would say the data today changes nothing about the BOE outlook – for the most part.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p>On the daily chart below, we can
see that after the break of the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/“>trendline</a>, the price is having a hard time
breaking lower as the strong <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/“>support</a> at 0.6860 halted the selling
momentum. </p><p>The bearish bias remains though
as we have the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-understanding-moving-averages-20220425/“>moving
averages</a> pointing south. The USD is supported fundamentally as the market is
repricing a higher terminal rate from the Fed and no cuts for this year. This
repricing started with the very strong <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-nonfarm-payroll-517k-vs-185k-estimate-unemployment-rate-34-vs-35-estimate-20230203/“>NFP</a> report and hot economic reports
afterwards. The market is probably just waiting for some catalyst before
pushing lower. </p><p>On the 4 hour chart below, we can
see that the selling momentum waned as the price tried a breakout of the
support at 0.6860 as depicted by the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-understanding-divergence-20220429/“>divergence</a> with the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-understanding-macd-20220427/“>MACD</a>. It’s possible that we will see
first a pullback to the downward trendline before another attempt from the
sellers to break the support. </p><p>The buyers will need first to
break the trendline to the upside to start targeting higher highs and the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/“>resistance</a> at the 0.70 handle, which will
be the key spot for both sides.</p><p>On the 1 hour chart below, we can
see that there’s <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-confluence-20220318/“>confluence</a> with a 61.8% <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-using-fibonacci-retracements-20220421/“>Fibonacci
retracement</a> level at the trendline. That may be a target for
the buyers and a good spot to lean on for the sellers as they will have a
defined risk and can fold fast if the price starts breaking the trendline to
the upside. </p>

This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.

<ul><li>Prior -17</li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>UK factory output and orders fell in February, with the latter dropping to its lowest since September 2020. The balance of new orders i.e. headline reading rose slightly but remains firmly in negative territory. CBI notes that:</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>“Conditions in manufacturing remain challenging, with output disappointing and order books having thinned out since late last year. However, if growth is going to return to the sector on a sustainable basis, then manufacturers need more than the boost some will receive from lower energy prices over the winter season.“</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<ul><li>If US will conduct nuclear tests, we will do the same</li><li>We do not withdraw from the treaty, but are suspending our participation in it</li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>For some context, the strategic offensive arms treaty served to limit both Russia and the US‘ nuclear arsenals. This has been in force since 2011, or at least that is the case by name and on paper.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p>On the daily chart below, we can
see that the price failed to break the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/chart-patterns-guide-20220125/“>triangle</a> last week. The price found
sellers at the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/“>trendline</a> and the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/“>resistance</a> at 1.3520. USD/CAD is one of the
ugliest major pairs in terms of price action as it’s been ranging for a long
time now. This is a signal of uncertainty and strength of both currencies. </p><p>The USD is supported by a
repricing higher in interest rates expectations and the CAD has been doing good
thanks also to high oil prices. Buyers will need a clear breakout to the upside
to start piling in and target the top of the triangle at 1.3950. On the other
hand, sellers will need a breakout to the downside to target lower lows.</p><p>On the 4 hour chart below, we can
see more closely the rangebound price action that’s been going on for over a
month now. We have the tight range between the resistance at 1.3450 and the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/“>support</a> at 1.3350 with the high at
1.3520 and the low at 1.3265. </p><p>If the price falls back into the
range, then we should expect a further fall to the support at 1.3350. As of
now, the resistance of the range at 1.3450 turned support and may be the area
where buyers will pile in to retry another breakout of the triangle. </p><p>On the 1 hour chart below, we can
see that after bouncing from the resistance turned support at 1.3450, the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-understanding-moving-averages-20220425/“>moving
averages</a> switched to a bullish bias. This signals that the buyers are in control
for now and they should fold only if the moving averages turn bearish and the
price falls back into the range. </p><p>We have <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar“>US PMIs today</a> and given that good news is bad
news now for risk sentiment, we may see the USD being bid in case the PMIs
surprise to the upside. Anyway, the breakouts of the key technical levels
mentioned previously will give the direction.</p>

This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.