• US mortgage applications -5.1% vs -1.3% prior
• Morgan Stanley expecting slight deceleration in tomorrow’s CPI
• ECB’s Patsalides says room for rate cut but Middle East implications need assessment
• Interest rate expectations for upcoming policy decisions
• Israeli PM Netanyahu held extensive talks with senior officials on response to Iran
• Views on major FX from UBS
• ECB’s Kazaks: Rate cuts are necessary as the economy is weak
• China’s new yuan loans likely surged in September as stimulus ramps up
• Market mood a bit sour this morning
• Category 5 Hurricane Milton to hit Florida Gulf Coast tonight with 160 mph winds
• Lloyd’s of London warning on potential $14.5 trillion global economic loss
• ECB’s Kazimir: Not as convinced as media reports on October cut
• Europe’s STOXX 600 bolstered by defensive sectors amidst China uncertainty
• What are the main events for today?
• British envoy Lammy embarks on China mission to mend ties
• Geopolitical risk premium in oil market eases slightly, says Goldman Sachs
• The @Newsquawk Europe Market Open: China finance briefing, ECB and Fed speakers ahead
• China’s finance ministry to detail fiscal stimulus plans on Saturday
• Japanese machine tool orders decline in September
• German Imports Drop More Than Expected, Exports Rise
• ECB ‚very likely‘ to reduce interest rates next week, says Villeroy
• China’s finance ministry briefing set for October 12; fiscal policy adjustments revealed
• Dollar Holds Steady Pre-Fed Minutes; Kiwi Drops on Rate Cut
• India cenbank keeps rates steady at 6.50%, shifts to ’neutral‘ stance
• World Bank says China growth rate will drop next year, doubt over recent stimulus measures

It’s been another dull session as we continue to wait for the US CPI release tomorrow. The price action remains rangebound in most markets.

The only notable news was about the China’s finance ministry holding a news conference on Saturday to
provide details on fiscal stimulus measures aimed at reviving the
faltering economy.

We had also some ECB speakers continuing to talk about the October cut which is already fully priced in by the markets. On the geopolitical front, nothing has changed as Israel has not decided yet on the scope and the timing for the retailiation against Iran.

In the American session, there’s no economic data to be released but we will hear from lots of Fed speakers. Finally, we will conclude with the FOMC Meeting Minutes later in the day, but as it’s almost always the case, they won’t matter.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

US mortgage market index 277.5vs 292.3 prior

US mortgage purchase index 149.2 vs 149.3 prior

US MBA 30-year mortgage rate 6.36% vs 6.4% prior

This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Core CPI is projected at 0.26% MM and 3.2% YY

Headline CPI is projected at of 0.09% MM and 2.3 YY

The main components to watch for tomorrow:

• Housing inflation is expected to soften, with rents anticipated to decelerate, particularly due to adjustments in the Owner’s Equivalent Rent (OER) calculations and seasonal factors.

• Used car prices are expected to accelerate, which will push goods inflation into positive territory.
• Car insurance is expected to continue its downward path, with car insurance expected around 13% YY (versus the prior of 17% YY).

In terms of the possible broader economic and Fed policy impact the bank suggests that the disinflation trend aligns with the Fed’s projections, and along with the solid labor market data should support the forecast of two more 25 basis point cuts in November and December.

This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

• ECB’s Patsalides: There seems to be room for a rate cut.
• ECB’s Patsalides: But we should discuss all new data as usual.
• ECB’s Patsalides: Middle East implications should be assessed.

This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

ECB: -25 basis points of easing implied for October 17th meeting (100% probability implied for a cut)

BoC: -32 basis points of easing implied for October 23rd meeting (100% probability implied for a cut)

BoJ: 1 basis point of tightening implied for the October 31st meeting (87% probability implied for a hold)

RBA: -2 basis points of easing implied for the November 5th meeting (91% probability implied for a hold)

BoE: -21 basis points of easing implied for the November 7th meeting (84% probability implied for a cut)

Fed: -22 basis points of easing implied for the November 7th meeting (88% probability implied for a cut)

RBNZ: -45 basis points of easing implied for the November 27th meeting (100% probability implied for a cut – almost fully priced for another 50bp move)

SNB: -30 basis points of easing implied for the December 12th meeting (100% probability implied for a cut)

This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.