• Monday: Eurozone Retail Sales. (China on holiday)
• Tuesday: Japan Average Cash Earnings, RBA Meeting Minutes,
  US NFIB Small Business Optimism Index.
• Wednesday: RBNZ Policy Decision, FOMC Meeting Minutes.
• Thursday: Japan PPI, ECB Meeting Minutes, US CPI, US
  Jobless Claims, New Zealand Manufacturing PMI.
• Friday: UK GDP, Canada Labour Market report, US PPI, US
  University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, BoC Business Outlook Survey.

Tuesday

The Japanese
Average Cash Earnings Y/Y is expected at 3.1% vs. 3.6% prior. Wage growth has
turned positive lately in Japan and that’s something the BoJ always wanted to
see to meet their inflation target sustainably. The data shouldn’t change much for the
central bank for now as they want to wait some more to assess the developments
in prices and financial markets following the August rout.

Wednesday

The RBNZ is
expected to cut the OCR by 50 bps and bring it to 4.75%. The reason for such
expectations come from the unemployment rate being at the highest level in 3
years, the core inflation rate being inside the target range and high frequency
data continuing to show weakness. Moreover, Governor Orr in the last press
conference said that they considered a range of moves in the last policy
decision and that included a 50 bps cut.

Thursday

The US CPI Y/Y is
expected at 2.3% vs. 2.5% prior, while the M/M figure is seen at 0.1% vs. 0.2%
prior. The Core CPI Y/Y is expected at 3.2% vs. 3.2% prior, while the M/M
reading is seen at 0.2% vs. 0.3% prior.

The last US labour
market report came out much better than expected and the market’s pricing for a
50 bps cut in November evaporated quickly. The market is now finally in line
with the Fed’s projection of 50 bps of easing by year-end.

Fed’s Waller
mentioned that they could go faster on rate cuts if the labour market data
worsened, or if the inflation data continued to come in softer than everybody
expected. He also added that a fresh pickup in inflation could also cause the
Fed to pause its cutting.

Given the recent
NFP report, even if the CPI misses slightly, I don’t think they would consider
a 50 bps cut in November anyway. That could be a debate for the December
meeting if inflation data continues to come below expectations.

The US Jobless
Claims continues to be one of the most important releases to follow every week
as it’s a timelier indicator on the state of the labour market.

Initial Claims
remain inside the 200K-260K range created since 2022, while Continuing Claims
after rising sustainably during the summer improved considerably in the last
weeks.

This week Initial
Claims are expected at 230K vs. 225K prior, while there’s no consensus for
Continuing Claims at the time of writing although the prior release showed a
decrease to 1826K.

Friday

The Canadian
Labour Market report is expected to show 28K jobs added in September vs. 22.1K
in August and the Unemployment Rate to increase to 6.7% vs. 6.6% prior. The
market is pricing an 83% probability for a 25 bps cut at the upcoming meeting
but since inflation continues to surprise to the downside, a weak report will
likely raise the chances for a 50 bps cut.

The US PPI Y/Y is
expected at 1.6% vs. 1.7% prior, while the M/M figures is seen at 0.1% vs. 0.2%
prior. The Core PPI Y/Y is expected at 2.7% vs. 2.4% prior, while the M/M
reading is seen at 0.2% vs. 0.3% prior.

Again, the data is
unlikely to get the Fed to debate a 50 bps cut at the November meeting even if
it misses. The risk now is for inflation to get stuck at a higher level or even surprise to the upside.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Hello traders and investors! This is Itai Levitan, an experienced market analyst at ForexLive.com, tracking crude oil for you today as well as what I am looking at. Let’s dive into the insights you need to make informed trading decisions. 🌊

Recent Rally Highlights 🚀

Strong Uptrend: Crude oil prices have surged by approximately 14% in less than four days, which signals significant bullish momentum. This sharp rally reflects market dynamics, particularly supply constraints, Iran’s ballistic missile attack on Israel (will there be an Israel response on Iran?) and heightened demand.
Personal Experience Tip: I see a lot of retail traders looking at the rally with FOMO. In my experience, such rapid price movements often suggest that traders may be pricing in unexpected news or geopolitical developments but pros should focus more on where to enter, more than where oil is going. The key is the entry point. Now you’re ready for my Crude Oil price forecast video.

Technical Patterns: From the above video showing crude oil technical analysis as well as my predictions, I am starting out from the broaer view on the weekly chart, where I’ve identified:

• Three perfect touchpoints along the bottom trendline, showcasing a consistent support level.
• A triangle pattern formed by the top red resistance line with significant touchpoints, suggesting potential breakout scenarios.

Key Technical Levels to Watch 🔍

Potential Retracement Zones:

• $73.30 Level: This level aligns with the red trendline retest and notable volume profile levels. Historically, such alignments can indicate strong support.
• $72.00 Zone: Between $71.90 and $72.10, this range has served as a strategic entry point in previous market cycles.

Resistance Areas:

• First Zone: Between $76.50 and $77.50, marked by the purple VWAP line from a key high. According to technical studies by John Murphy, VWAP often acts as a dynamic support or resistance zone, especially in volatile markets.
• Second Zone: Near $78.50, just below the August open at $78.59, this area could present a significant barrier as it represents prior high liquidity zones.

Trading Strategy Insights 🧠

Risk Management:

Placing stop-loss orders is essential to managing potential downside risks. In case support levels like $72.00 fail, it’s crucial to re-evaluate your strategy. Consider setting stop-loss orders just below the trendline, ensuring you’re protected from unexpected reversals.

Profit Targets:

• Partial Profit-Taking: Securing profits between $76.50 and $77.50 can mitigate risk, while monitoring the price near $78.50 for full profit potential. Historically, major resistance zones can cause significant retracements, so taking some off the table helps manage exposure.
• Market Participation: Swing traders could capitalize on the broader market momentum, while day traders should keep adjusting their strategies to accommodate shorter timeframes.

From my own trading experience, patience in waiting for optimal entry points tends to improve risk-to-reward ratios, especially in trending markets like crude oil.

Final Thoughts 💭

While the bullish trend in crude oil is currently strong, entry timing is crucial due to recent rapid price movements. Keep a close eye on the highlighted levels, and stay adaptable to changes in market dynamics, including geopolitical tensions, economic reports, or unexpected supply disruptions.

I have covered my own opinion for the short term crude oil price prediction. You should always do your own research and for those that want to look at a higher timeframe and fundamentals, you can check out the International Energy Agency on oil, as fluctuations in global supply chains remain a key factor influencing short-term price movements.

As always, trade wisely, stay informed, and manage your risks!

For more insights and real-time updates, visit ForexLive.com. Have a successful trading week! 📊🌟

This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.

• Saudi Aramco raised the official selling price of its key Arab Light crude to Asia by 90 cents, bringing it to a $2.20 per barrel premium over the regional benchmark
• vs. expected 65 cents / bbl
• cut the price of all grades to Europe and the US though

Saudi Aramco is the state owned oil producer.

—

The oil price jumped last week in response to a ratcheting higher of conflict in the Middle East.

Chart from ForexLive free charting, access it here

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

In the week leading up to the holiday beginning Chinese authorities announced an array of economic stimulus measures. SOme of the measures were aimed specifically at the property sector, such as:

• reductions in down-payment ratios
• reductions in mortgage rates
• an easing in property buying restrictions

China’s state broadcaster CCTV reported a statement from the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development on Saturday saying that the measures are having success. The statement cited the number of people visiting houses and sales offices, as a reflection of buying intentions, along with increased participation in sales promotions.

—

The data these officials are citing is not sales, but I think we can give them some benefit of some doubt of increased activity. I’ll be waiting for more solid data. Chinese equity markets have not been waiting for more solid data, they recorded historic gains in the week leading to the holidays and Hong Kong markets, which reopened on Wednesday last week, have added gains also.

I’m not in front of my regular PC to post a chart, so here’s a quick one from CNBC. Shanghai Composite over the past year. You can see the extent of the rally in the last week of September.

Chinese markets reopen on Tuesday, October 8.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.