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Cisco reports fourth straight quarter of declining revenue
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NZDUSD Technical Analysis – We are testing a key support zone
Fundamental
Overview
Overview
The US CPI yesterday came in line with expectations
leading to a bit of a “sell the fact” reaction in the US Dollar.
The bullish momentum picked
up a bit later though as Fed’s Logan delivered a hawkish comment saying that “models show that Fed funds could
be very close to neutral” basically implying a lot more cautious approach on
rate cuts in 2025.
The market is viewing all
of this in light of the recent US election as Trump’s policies are likely to
spur growth and potentially keep inflation above target for longer, making the
Fed’s job of bringing inflation back to target a bit harder.
NZDUSD
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, we can
see that NZDUSD is testing a key support zone around the 0.5850 level. This is where
the buyers will likely step in with a defined risk below the level to position
for a rally back into the 0.6050 resistance. The sellers, on the other hand,
will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the
0.5773 level next.
NZDUSD Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have a downward trendline
defining the bearish momentum. If we get a pullback, the sellers will likely lean
on the trendline to position for more downside, while the buyers will look for
a break higher to increase the bullish bets into new highs.
NZDUSD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have another minor downward trendline defining the bearish momentum
on this timeframe. If we were to get a pullback, the buyers will likely lean on
it to position for the break below the 0.5850 level, while the buyers will look
for a break higher to increase the bullish bets into the next major trendline. The
red lines define the average daily range for today.
Upcoming
Catalysts
Today we have the US PPI and the US Jobless Claims figures. Tomorrow, we
conclude the week with the US Retail Sales data.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
The dollar train continues to march on
All aboard now. The dollar train is marching forward on the session, stretching gains across the board. The post-election momentum continues to play out and it’s still not the time to be guessing the top just yet. EUR/USD is now down 0.5% to 1.0508 as it corroborates with the inevitable pull towards 1.0500.
As mentioned in the linked post above, this is where the real test comes in for the pair as we look towards the end of this week. EUR/USD has been more or less stuck within a range of around 1.0500 to 1.1200 since the start of 2023. So, this makes the latest downside shove a major one to watch as price reaches a critical technical juncture.
Besides that, USD/JPY is once again trading back above 156.00 to 156.20 now. Then, we have GBP/USD slumping to its lowest since July – down 0.5% to 1.2635 currently. AUD/USD is also feeling the pressure as it is down 0.5% to 0.6455 currently and poised for its lowest daily close since April.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
Weekly update on interest rate expectations
Rate cuts by year-end
- Fed: 20 bps (81% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
2025: 75 bps
- ECB: 34 bps (62% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
2025: 145 bps
- BoE: 4 bps (85% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
2025: 56 bps
- BoC: 33 bps (67% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
2025: 95 bps
- RBA: 2 bps (92% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
2025: 40 bps
- RBNZ: 55 bps (80% probability of 50 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting/20% for a 75 bps cut)
2025: 170 bps
- SNB: 32 bps (72% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
2025: 70 bps
Rate hikes by year-end
- BoJ: 13 bps (51% probability of 25 bps rate hike at the upcoming meeting)
2025: 44 bps
*where you see 25 bps rate cut, the rest of the probability is for a 50 bps cut
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
Eurozone September industrial production -2.0% vs -1.4% m/m expected
- Prior +1.8%; revised to +1.5%
Looking at the details, the drop here is largely driven by a decline in capital goods (-3.8%) and energy production (-1.5%). The former is seen declining back after a surge higher in August (+3.8%). The declines for the month are partially offset by increases in output for durable consumer goods (+0.5%) and non-durable consumer goods (+1.6%). The production for intermediate goods was flat on the month.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.