That is the highest level in four months and carries on from the surging run since October. And this is in part fueling the dollar gains on the day with EUR/USD now down nearly 2% at 1.0715 and USD/JPY up 1.7% to 154.15 currently.

Trump’s domestic policies are largely aimed at boosting growth, spending and with regards to foreign trade, tariffs and trade conflicts are going to stir up some added drama. All of which markets are anticipating to feed into higher inflationary pressures in due time.

That is partly why there’s so much angst in bonds now but also if Trump digs into the fiscal checkbook i.e. more borrowing, it does put upward pressure on yields as well.

It’s still too early to judge the exact nature and magnitude of how Trump’s presidency will impact the above issues. But for traders, the considerations are definitely there already as evident in the bond market reaction we’re seeing.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The Associated Press has made their call and we’re seeing everyone else chime in with CBS, Fox, and CNN all making their calls as well. Even Edison Research and FiveThirtyEight are also now calling it for Trump. What is impressive is that it looks to be a clean sweep of all the swing states. That will see Trump end with 312 votes against Harris‘ 226 votes.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Gold is trading lower today
as Trump got elected President of the US. The Republicans won the Senate, and
they just need the House now to get a red sweep.

That is the most bearish
scenario for gold in the short-term as it would make the tax cuts easier to
pass which should lead to higher growth and less rate cuts expectations. As of
now, the probabilities are in favour of the Republicans.

Given the above and the
strong US data we keep on getting, the Fed might start to change its stance,
and we could see a much earlier than expected pause in 2025.

Gold
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that gold bounced near the major trendline as the buyers stepped in to
position for a rally into a new all-time high. The sellers, on the other hand,
will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into new
lows.

Gold Technical Analysis
– 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we now have a minor downward trendline defining the current bearish
momentum on this timeframe. The sellers will likely lean on the trendline to
position for the break below the major trendline. The buyers, on the other
hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets
into new highs.

Gold Technical Analysis
– 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that the price bounced from the lower bound of the average daily range for today. We can also see that we
have a pretty strong resistance zone around the 2730 level now.

The sellers will likely
pile in around the resistance and the trendline to keep pushing
into new lows, while the buyers will look for a breakout to the upside to
invalidate the bearish setup and increase the bullish bets into a new all-time
high.

Upcoming Catalysts

Tomorrow we have the US Jobless Claims and the FOMC Policy Decision. On Friday,
we conclude the week with the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report.

See the video below

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior +0.6%

Looking at the details, most of the drop comes from energy prices (-1.9%). If you strip that out, producer prices were actually flat on the month in September. Breaking down the other components, there were rises in prices for durable consumer goods (+0.2%) and non-durable consumer goods (+0.2%). That is slightly offset by a drop in prices for capital goods (-0.1%) with intermediate goods keeping flat.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The NYT projection has Republicans with 194 seats and Democrats with 173 seats at the moment. And among the key ‚competitive‘ districts here, there are still 45 left to officially report. That said, some of the votes are likely to be called imminently. So, let’s take a look at some important details that have surfaced so far.

Among the more tightly ‚competitive‘ districts, Iowa 3 has been called for the Republicans while New Mexico 2 and New York 19 has been called for Democrats. Those should not be listed as any upsets, if you cross check that with this piece here (h/t @ admcrlsn):

The way I’d read sentiment on the House race now is to use the NYT list of ‚competitive‘ districts identified for each party to win. And then to cross reference that individually to the tilt/lean bias in the above image to get a better sense of any „upsets“.

Taking the above into consideration, the standout result at the moment is Pennsylvania 8. It is supposed to be slightly Democratic leaning but Robert Bresnahan (R) is leading by 2 points against incumbent Matt Cartwright (D) with >95% of votes in. Nebraska 2 is the other one also showing a similar story, with Don Bacon (R) leading by 1.8 points over Tony Vargas (D) also with >95% of votes in.

In the supposed toss up category, Iowa 1 is one spot to watch with Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) leading by just 0.1 points over Christina Bohannan (D) with >95% of votes in.

The rest are still seeing lacking in vote count to really draw too much conclusions for the time being. But besides the three highlighted i.e. Pennsylvania 8, Nebraska 2, Iowa 1, everything else is playing out as it should.

And if it stays that way, Republicans might just pip it in the end especially if they can secure the toss ups. But for now, it’s still a little premature to be calling any favourites yet.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.