APPL stock outlook: Time to sell and watch for VWAP reaction at $205

Apple Inc. (AAPL) has long been a shining star in the stock market, winning the hearts of investors and traders alike. But even the best stocks need a breather, and recent price action hints that now might be the time to shift gears. Don’t worry—this doesn’t mean giving up on AAPL. It’s about being smart, taking some chips off the table, and watching for that perfect moment to jump back in. Let’s dive into why selling a portion of your AAPL holdings and waiting for a potential reaction at the $205 VWAP could be a solid move. Further lower, we have the $200 round number where a lot of liquadity is waiting with pre-set and will-be-set orders by traders, should the stock price declines to that zone. And we have the 196’ish level which is the top of the previous long consolidation zone. Dip seekers may want to cast a net of buys at $190 to $206 for patient stock accumilation and dip buying, as they average out an entry price at apx $200 or even slightly lower.

Why sell Apple stocks or take partial profits on AAPL now?

If you’ve been riding AAPL’s upward trend, congrats—you’ve earned it. But let’s not ignore the signs pointing to consolidation after a big run. For over a year, AAPL has bounced within a 17% range, creating a pretty clear trading zone. Resistance near $235 has once again triggered some profit-taking, adding to the current dip. This isn’t unusual; it’s actually quite healthy for a stock to pause and recalibrate. So, taking partial profits now could protect some gains and free up capital for a potential buy at a more attractive price.

Key VWAP level at $205 – the sweet spot to watch

Now, here’s where things get interesting. The volume-weighted average price (VWAP) near $205 has acted as a solid support in past consolidations. It’s a place where buyers often return to show their strength. If AAPL does drift down to this level, it’s time to pay attention. A bounce here could signal that it’s game on for another climb, while a break below might mean more downside is coming. Either way, $205 is the line in the sand.

What to keep an eye on

1. Price reaction at $205: If AAPL makes its way to $205, how it reacts could be a big clue. A strong bounce could mean buyers are stepping up, setting the stage for a rebound. But if it breaks below this level with conviction, it might be wise to hold off before buying back in.

2. Volume and momentum: Watch the volume as AAPL approaches $205. Heavy volume that pushes the stock back up can be a sign of renewed buying interest. But if volume surges and the price keeps slipping, that’s a caution flag.

3. Overall market sentiment: Let’s not forget that AAPL doesn’t move in a vacuum. Keep an eye on the tech sector and the broader market. A strong tech rally could support AAPL, while market-wide jitters might make any dip more pronounced.

I am a stubborn holder of Apple stock and you can’t time the market.

You can’t time the market but you can mitigate risk by lowering your position size. Here’s the comforting part—AAPL remains a stellar long-term pick. Taking partial profits now isn’t about losing faith; it’s about being strategic. Waiting for the stock to approach $205 and observing its behavior there can set you up for an even better re-entry point. Be prepared for some volatility and be ready to act based on what unfolds at this pivotal level.

In the end, stepping back to reassess and possibly buy back at a lower price can be the smart, patient move. The VWAP’s history as a support level makes it the perfect spot for a potential showdown. Whether it holds or breaks will determine the next chapter for AAPL—and you’ll be ready.

AAPL stock news: Quick takeaways you need to know

Last Updated: November 03, 2024

• Apple’s new AI Push to offset iPhone sales
  Apple is rolling out new AI products to help cushion potential drops in iPhone sales. This move showcases their commitment to staying innovative and diversifying their tech lineup. Analysts are optimistic, suggesting this could boost market sentiment and strengthen Apple’s long-term growth prospects, even amid economic uncertainties.
• Berkshire Hathaway trims Apple stake
  Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway reduced its Apple holdings significantly in Q4 2022, cutting its position by over 33%, equivalent to $16 billion. Despite this, Berkshire still holds $54.7 billion worth of AAPL shares, signaling cautious confidence. The strategic shift raised eyebrows but also highlights Buffett’s rebalancing strategy to mitigate risk while maintaining a significant stake.
• Cash pile grows at Berkshire
  Following the reduction in its Apple stake, Berkshire’s cash reserves swelled to $131 billion. This suggests that Buffett is gearing up for potential acquisitions or new investments. Traders should watch closely for Buffett’s next moves, as these could impact both Apple’s stock and broader market trends.
• Bottom line for Apple investors
  While Berkshire’s sell-off might cause short-term concern, Apple’s diversification into AI and sustained tech dominance keep it a strong long-term pick. Stay vigilant and consider taking partial profits to mitigate risk, especially as new buying opportunities could emerge if AAPL dips further.

AAPL stock valuation: Key points at a glance

• Strong P/FCF ratio: AAPL’s Price-to-Free Cash Flow ratio of 30.73 highlights a solid cash position, appealing for long-term investors due to its potential for reinvestment and shareholder returns.
• Robust market cap: With a market capitalization of $3.34 trillion, Apple’s valuation underscores its strong financial standing and growth potential, supported by projected EPS growth of 21.31% this year and 12.14% next year.
• Forward P/E advantage: Apple’s Forward P/E of 26.95, lower than its current P/E of 36.72, suggests anticipated earnings growth, indicating shares may be undervalued.
• Analyst sentiment: Despite recent downgrades by some firms, the general consensus remains positive, with buy and overweight ratings from major analysts like JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley, reflecting confidence in Apple’s outlook.

AAPL stock analyst recommendations:

• Sure, Jefferies and KeyBanc Capital Markets recently handed out some downgrades, but don’t hit the panic button just yet—most analysts are still quite optimistic. Heavy hitters like JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley are keeping the faith with repeated buy and overweight ratings, suggesting that Apple’s stock isn’t losing its shine.
• Several firms, including Monness Crespi & Hardt and JP Morgan, have been bumping up their price targets significantly. Translation? They’re seeing big potential for Apple’s performance in the market. Investors should keep an eye on these bold moves—they’re like breadcrumbs leading to confidence in Apple’s future growth.
• The wave of upgrades and renewed buy ratings from players like Loop Capital and DA Davidson, who’ve upped their price targets by a good margin, shows analysts are doubling down on their positive outlook. It’s a trend that screams “confidence,” perfectly in line with searches for ‘AAPL analyst recommendation’ and reinforcing a bullish vibe for Apple’s prospects.

AAPL stock insider trading insights:

• Executive sell-offs: CEO Tim Cook and CFO Luca Maestri recently sold shares worth $50 million and $13.4 million, respectively, potentially signaling caution.

• Strategic implications: Continued sales by financial and legal executives, such as the Principal Accounting Officer and General Counsel, could be a cue for investors to review their positions carefully.

Overall, while AAPL remains strong, recent insider activity and valuation metrics call for a balanced, informed approach.

Always sell or buy Apple stock at your own risk only. Visit ForexLive.com for additional, original views for stock investors and traders.

This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.

• Monday: Japan on holiday.
• Tuesday: China Caixin Services PMI, RBA Policy Decision,
  Canada Services PMI, US ISM Services PMI, BoC Meeting Minutes, New Zealand
  Labour Market report, US Presidential Election.
• Wednesday: Eurozone PPI.
• Thursday: Japan Average Cash Earnings, Eurozone Retail
  Sales, BoE Policy Decision, US Jobless Claims, FOMC Policy Decision.
• Friday: Canada Labour Market report, US University of
  Michigan Consumer Sentiment.

Tuesday

The RBA is
expected to keep the Cash Rate unchanged at 4.35%. The latest data has been
pretty strong with the Australian labour
market report beating
expectations by a big margin and the underlying
inflation figures
remaining high. Although the data didn’t change much in terms of interest rate
expectations, it still supports the RBA’s patient stance.

The US ISM
Services PMI is expected at 53.8 vs. 54.9 prior. This survey hasn’t been giving
any clear signal in the past couple of years as it’s just been ranging since
2022.

Nonetheless, the
services sector showed resilience in these years, and it looks like it’s been
picking up steam in the recent quarters.

The S&P Global
Services PMI noted that “demand
has strengthened, as signalled by new order inflows hitting the highest for
nearly one-and-a-half years, albeit with both output and sales growth limited
to the services economy.”

And added “businesses
nevertheless remain cautious about hiring, leading to a third month of modest
payroll reductions. Firms are worried in particular about uncertainty caused by
the Presidential Election.”

Therefore,
everything hinges on the US Presidential Election.

The New Zealand
Labour Market report is expected to show a contraction of -0.5% in Q3 vs. 0.4%
in Q2 and the Unemployment Rate to jump to 5.0% vs. 4.6% prior. The Labour Cost
Index Y/Y is expected at 3.4% vs. 3.6% prior, while the Q/Q measure is seen at 0.7%
vs. 0.9% prior.

As a reminder, the
RBNZ cut interest rates by 50 bps at the last meeting and the market expects
another 50 bps cut at the upcoming meeting. In 2025, the market sees four more
25 bps cuts.

The US
Presidential Election is the main event of the week. Nothing else will really
matter. This week will be divided into three phases: the pre-election noise,
the election and the post-election trading. For the US Dollar, a red sweep is
likely the most bullish scenario, while a blue sweep is the most bearish. Newsquawk
prepared a nice and comprehensive Election Guide here.
Definitely check that out!

Thursday

The Japanese
Average Cash Earnings Y/Y is expected at 2.8% vs. 3.0% prior. Wage growth
adjusted for inflation has turned positive lately, which is a good sign for the
BoJ. Nonetheless, the central bank is in no hurry to hike rates and it’s
unlikely that we will see a hike anytime soon.

The BoE is
expected to cut interest rates by 25 bps and bring the Bank Rate to 4.75%. The
UK data recently has been consistently missing expectations and we saw the
central bank’s most watched services inflation measure dropping to 4.9% vs.
5.6% prior.

Further out, the
market scaled back the expectations for a back-to-back cut in December after
the UK budget announcement but if the data continues to soften, we could see
the market increasing the probabilities for a move in December from the current
20% chance.

The US Jobless
Claims continues to be one of the most important releases to follow every week
as it’s a timelier indicator on the state of the labour market.

Initial Claims
remain inside the 200K-260K range created since 2022, while Continuing Claims
after an improvement in the last two months, spiked to the cycle highs in the
last couple of weeks due to distortions coming from hurricanes and strikes.

These distortions
are fading out as Initial Claims dropped back to the lower bound of the range
and Continuing Claims seem to be turning around.

This week Initial
Claims are expected at 223K vs. 216K prior, while there’s no consensus for Continuing
Claims at the time of writing although the prior reading saw a dip to 1862K vs.
1888K prior.

The FOMC is
expected to cut interest rates by 25 bps bringing the FFR to 4.50-4.75%. The
economic data has been consistently showing strength in the US economy with
even some acceleration following the latest rate cut.

This led the
market to price out the aggressive rate cuts expectations which now sees the
Fed pausing earlier in 2025 with 3 cuts priced in vs. 4 according to the Fed’s
projections.

It goes without
saying that the market’s expectations will be influenced by the US Presidential
Election result, so the monetary policy outlook will be shaped by that.

In case we get a
red sweep, we can expect the Fed to change its stance and although they will
likely cut by 25 bps in December anyway, the December cut could be a hawkish
one. The market, on the other hand, could be even more aggressive in pricing
out the rate cuts.

Friday

The Canadian
Labour Market report is expected to show 33.2K jobs added in October vs. 46.7K
in September and the Unemployment Rate to tick higher to 6.6% vs. 6.5% prior.
As a reminder, the BoC has switched its focus from inflation to growth now, so
they will keep on cutting rates with the market seeing 33% chance of another 50
bps cut in December and four more 25 bps cuts in 2025.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Bitcoin price forecast: on track for another ATH test, but watch these levels

If you’re riding the Bitcoin wave, hang tight—things are getting interesting. As BTC/USD keeps testing significant levels, traders and investors are on edge, waiting to see if Bitcoin has what it takes to revisit its all-time high (ATH). With technical analysis pointing to both promising and cautionary signals, here’s what you need to know.

BTCUSD price resistance at $73,794 – the ATH retest zone

The big question on everyone’s mind: will Bitcoin push back to its ATH of $73,794? This level is more than just a psychological milestone—it’s a test of Bitcoin’s strength after a rollercoaster year. If BTC manages to push through this ceiling, we could see a fresh wave of enthusiasm among the bulls. But breaking an ATH is never easy, so keep your eyes on volume and momentum as price approaches this key marker.

The line in the sand between bitcoin bulls and bears at $65,500 – bulls should set a stop there

Before getting too excited about ATHs, remember the support at $65,500. This level has held up as a reliable safety net, where buyers seem ready to jump back in when the price wavers. As long as Bitcoin stays above $65,500, the path to testing higher levels remains intact. A dip below, though, could signal a deeper retracement and shake out the less committed bulls.

Potential slide if support breaks

What if $65,500 doesn’t hold? In that case, brace yourself for a potential pullback toward lower supports—we could be talking about the $60,000 range and later even to $53,000. A break at this $65,500 level would put pressure on Bitcoin and may set off a round of profit-taking and panic selling. It’s crucial to watch how the price behaves at this junction. But for now, I am still on bullish on BTC and looking forward to another retest of the ATH zone – just slightly below or just slightly above $73,794.

Always trade bitcoin at your own risk only. Return to ForexLive.com for additional, original perspectives..

This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.