<p>On the daily chart below, we can
see that the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/“>resistance</a> at 4175 is still holding and the
buyers are having a hard time breaking it. You can feel the battle between
buyers and sellers as recently the soft-landing narrative changed into the no-landing
one where the Fed may have not done enough to depress growth and return
inflation back to the 2% target. </p><p>After the “wow” <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-nonfarm-payroll-517k-vs-185k-estimate-unemployment-rate-34-vs-35-estimate-20230203/“>NFP</a> report, we saw the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-january-cpi-64-yy-vs-62-expected-20230214/“>US
CPI</a> data
coming within expectations but those expectations were high with M/M readings
too high for a return to 2%. The disinflationary trend seemed also to have
slowed. </p><p>Yesterday we also got a big beat
in <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-january-retail-sales-30-vs-18-expected-20230215/“>Retail
Sales</a>, which is another bad signal for the Fed and may require a higher
terminal rate than they projected in December 2022. </p><p>In the 4
hour chart below, we can see that the constant knocking on the 4175 door
coupled with the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/“>trendline</a> may form an <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/chart-patterns-guide-20220125/“>ascending
triangle</a> pattern. </p><p>The price
can break on either side of the triangle, as the buyers may have the strength
to break higher and lead to higher momentum or not enough strength exhausting them
and lead to a sell off as they cover positions and the sellers exacerbate the
downward momentum. </p><p>In the 1 hour chart below, we can
see more closely the recent catalysts and the market not doing much other than
chopping around. The price is basically in no man’s land and the best strategy
would be to wait for a clear breakout. </p><p>Today we will get the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar“>US Jobless Claims</a> data and although it’s likely
that we will see another round of choppiness after some volatility, big
surprises should move the market. </p><p>A big miss would again signal the
strength of the labour market, but a big beat would be less expected and
probably lead the market to speculate on weakening labour market going forward.
</p>
see that the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/“>resistance</a> at 4175 is still holding and the
buyers are having a hard time breaking it. You can feel the battle between
buyers and sellers as recently the soft-landing narrative changed into the no-landing
one where the Fed may have not done enough to depress growth and return
inflation back to the 2% target. </p><p>After the “wow” <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-nonfarm-payroll-517k-vs-185k-estimate-unemployment-rate-34-vs-35-estimate-20230203/“>NFP</a> report, we saw the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-january-cpi-64-yy-vs-62-expected-20230214/“>US
CPI</a> data
coming within expectations but those expectations were high with M/M readings
too high for a return to 2%. The disinflationary trend seemed also to have
slowed. </p><p>Yesterday we also got a big beat
in <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-january-retail-sales-30-vs-18-expected-20230215/“>Retail
Sales</a>, which is another bad signal for the Fed and may require a higher
terminal rate than they projected in December 2022. </p><p>In the 4
hour chart below, we can see that the constant knocking on the 4175 door
coupled with the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/“>trendline</a> may form an <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/chart-patterns-guide-20220125/“>ascending
triangle</a> pattern. </p><p>The price
can break on either side of the triangle, as the buyers may have the strength
to break higher and lead to higher momentum or not enough strength exhausting them
and lead to a sell off as they cover positions and the sellers exacerbate the
downward momentum. </p><p>In the 1 hour chart below, we can
see more closely the recent catalysts and the market not doing much other than
chopping around. The price is basically in no man’s land and the best strategy
would be to wait for a clear breakout. </p><p>Today we will get the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar“>US Jobless Claims</a> data and although it’s likely
that we will see another round of choppiness after some volatility, big
surprises should move the market. </p><p>A big miss would again signal the
strength of the labour market, but a big beat would be less expected and
probably lead the market to speculate on weakening labour market going forward.
</p>
This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.