• There
  had been further progress on all three elements, which warranted increased
  confidence that inflation was on track to reach the ECB’s target
• More
  data and evidence were needed for the Governing Council to be sufficiently
  confident of this
• Inflation
  was expected to continue its downward trend in the coming months
• A
  bumpy profile and a trough were expected after the summer
• There
  were signs that wage growth was starting to moderate
• Members
  expressed increased confidence that inflation was on track to decline
  sustainably to the 2% inflation target in a timely manner
• Important not to be complacent, as the
  disinflationary process remained fragile
• The
  case for considering rate cuts was strengthening

This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

US challenger layoffs 90.3 vs 84.6 prior

This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

📉 AMD’s stock technical analysis: Is a 34% correction looming? 📉

• Stay Ahead of the Curve: For the savvy traders and investors looking to keep a pulse on Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), catch the most important news summaries each trading day. Stay informed on key valuation metrics, recent insider trading, and updated analyst recommendations for AMD stock at ForexLive.com

🔍 Analyzing the AMD long term… For the last 24 years:

• AMD’s stock has shown a failed breakout above the critical red resistance line, indicating potential bearish momentum ahead.
• Historical performance over the last 24 years suggests AMD’s shares might be on a path to correct towards the $125 mark.

📊 Technical indicators:

• The Volume Profile Visible Range (VPVR) indicates a significant trading activity around the $125 level, dubbed the ‚value area high‘ starting from 2020.

🔻 What does this mean?:

• A potential correction of about 34% from the current price could be in play if AMD’s stock continues to respect the long-term resistance trend.

🤔 For AMD stock investors and traders:

• It’s crucial to monitor AMD’s stock closely, especially for those holding long positions or considering entry points.
• Embrace a strategy that includes hedging or setting up stop-loss levels to mitigate potential losses during such corrections.

💡 Key takeaways for this long term AMD analysis:

• AMD has experienced a failed breakout, raising caution among investors.
• The correction target sits around $125, which is reinforced by the volume profile data.

🔗 Stay updated every trading day of AMD stock

• While the chart presents a cautious narrative, it’s important to consider other fundamental factors and market conditions that may influence AMD’s stock performance.
• Keeping abreast of AMD stock daily news, analyst opinions, and insider transactions at ForexLive.com is key to staying ahead in the trading game. Trade AMD at your own risk only.

This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.

Below is a quick rundown of what markets are expecting from tomorrow’s US jobs report:

• Headline NFP: 200k (prior 275k)
• Unemployment Rate: 3.9% (prior 3.9%)
• Average earnings MM: 0.3% (prior 0.1%)
• Average earnings YY: 4.1% (prior 4.3%)

It’s important to note that the employment data released throughout the week has been mostly better than expected or better than priors:

• ISM manufacturing employment index: 47.4 (prior 45.9)
• ISM services employment index: 48.5 (prior 48.0)
• ADP national employment: 184k vs 148k expected

That means that the whisper number for NFP tomorrow might be slightly higher than the 200k consensus estimate.

This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Yesterday,
the Nasdaq Composite finished the day positive as a big drop in the price index
in the ISM Services PMI turned the sentiment around and quelled some
inflation fears. In fact, the market stayed under pressure since the hot ISM Manufacturing PMI on Monday as the increase in the price index
renewed fears of a reacceleration in inflation. For now, the market might take
a sigh of relief, but all eyes then will turn on the US CPI report next
Wednesday.

Nasdaq Composite Technical
Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that the Nasdaq
Composite has
been diverging with
the MACD for a
long time. This is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by
pullbacks or reversals. The price recently broke out of the rising wedge and
bounced on the key 16206 level where we had also the red 21 moving average for confluence. This
is a critical support zone as a continuation to the downside should trigger a
major correction with the 14500 level as the ultimate target.

Nasdaq Composite Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the
price bounced on the 16206 level where we had also the 61.8% Fibonacci
retracement level for confluence. The buyers stepped
in with a defined risk below the Fibonacci level to position for a rally into a
new all-time high, but they will need the price to rise back above the trendline to
increase the momentum. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the
price reversing and breaking below the Fibonacci level to pile in more
aggressively into new lows.

Nasdaq Composite Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see more
closely the recent price action with the strong bounce yesterday following the
ISM Services PMI release. We can see that we have a counter-trendline that
acted as resistance lately. If the price were to break above this
counter-trendline, we can expect the buyers to increase the bullish bets into a
new all-time high. The sellers, on the other hand, will likely lean on the
counter-trendline to position for a break below the Fibonacci level with a
better risk to reward setup.

Upcoming
Events

Today we will see the latest US Jobless Claims
figures, while tomorrow we conclude the week with the US NFP report.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

At 14:00 we are expecting the march release of the ISM services PMI.

Markets will be paying additional attention to this one following the upside surprise in the manufacturing data on Monday.

With the last print, majority of measures stayed in expansion, while employment was the only sub-index that remained below 50.

I think markets will be paying particular attention to the prices paid component after the solid jump we had in manufacturing prices.

It goes without saying, but when analyzing ISM releases, don’t just focus on the headline number itself.

That usually get the first initial reaction, but markets soon digest the rest of the sub-indexes to get a better sense of how good or how bad the data was.

Make sure to include all of the components into your analysis.

This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

US mortgage applications data:

• MBA mortgage applications: -0.6% (prior -0.7%)
• Mortgage market index: 195.6 (prior 196.8)
• MBA purchase index: 145.6 (prior 145.7)
• MBA refinancing index: 4536.5 (prior 460.9)
• MBA 30-year mortgage rate: 6.91% (prior 6.93%)

Notes on mortgage application data:

Indexes are adjusted for seasonal variations. The changes in percentages for these indexes and the
difference in the mortgage rate are compared with the previous week. The
Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) survey, which has been done every week since
1990, includes more than 75% of all home loan applications in the U.S. People
who take part in this survey include mortgage bankers, commercial banks, and
savings institutions

This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Crude Oil recently broke
through the key $83 resistance following the strong US ISM Manufacturing PMI and some geopolitical risk in the
Middle East after Israel killed an Iranian general. For now, the fundamentals support
more upside for Crude Oil as we are seeing a reacceleration in economic
activity and the pickup in China’s performance seems to be gathering steam.

WTI Crude Oil Technical
Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that Crude Oil broke
through the key $83 resistance where we
had also the upper bound of the channel as an extra barrier. This breakout
should point to further gains ahead with the $89 level as the next target. If
the price were to pull back to retest the resistance now turned support, the
buyers should step in with a defined risk below it to position for a rally into
the $89 level. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price
breaking lower to invalidate the bullish setup and position for a drop into the
lower bound of the channel around the $78 level.

WTI Crude Oil Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we can find
some more confluence around
the $83 support as we can find the red 21 moving average and the
38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
If the price were to extend the pullback though, the buyers will have the trendline and the
61.8% Fibonacci retracement level as the last line of defence. Below the
trendline, the sellers will regain control and we could see a selloff back into
the $78 level.

WTI Crude Oil Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that the
latest leg higher diverged with
the MACD which
is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or
reversals. In this case, it should signal a pullback into the minor trendline
where we can also find the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level for confluence.
All these setups will be dip-buying opportunities for the buyers but depending
on the strength of the momentum and the economic data, the price might bounce
from either level. For this reason, the buyers might want to split their orders
or wait for a catalyst to pile in.

Upcoming Events

Today we have the US ADP and the US ISM Services
PMI. Tomorrow, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures while on Friday we
conclude the week with the US NFP report. Weak data is likely to weigh on Crude
Oil in the short term, while strong figures should give it a boost.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

Below is a handy table that shows what type of interest rate changes are expected for the major central banks over their next few policy decisions.

Markets have certainly come a long way in pricing out some of the aggressive cuts we saw at the start of the year.

There was a lot of chatter on Monday about the first rate cut for the Fed being pushed back to September.

I don’t think that tells the whole story though.

Yes, technically the first cut is fully priced in for September, but there is still 24 basis points of cuts implied for July, which is just a whisker away from 25.

Other pricing that I’m keeping an eye on this week is for the SNB. Markets are currently pricing a 71% probability of a cut in June.

Which means Thursday’s inflation data will be important for how that view evolves.

This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Yesterday, the Nasdaq Composite opened the day lower
but traded mostly higher into the close. The market got pressured by the strong
US ISM Manufacturing PMI report
on Monday which gave a boost to the US Dollar and Treasury yields. Inflation is
gradually becoming again the threat for further gains and the expectations for
rate cuts continue to dwindle with the market now being much less certain on a
rate cut in June. These fears might end up in some general profit-taking into
the US CPI report next week as another hot release could really spook the
market and trigger a change in the Fed’s stance.

Nasdaq Composite Technical
Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that the Nasdaq
Composite has
been diverging with
the MACD for a
long time. This is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by
pullbacks or reversals. The price yesterday broke out of the rising wedge and
bounced on the key 16206 level where we have also the red 21 moving average for confluence. This
is a critical support zone as a continuation to the downside should trigger a
major correction with the 14500 level as the ultimate target.

Nasdaq Composite Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the
price bounced on the 16206 level where we can also find the 61.8% Fibonacci
retracement level for confluence. The buyers should
step in around this level with a defined risk below it to position for a rally
into a new all-time high. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the
price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into new lows.

Nasdaq Composite Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see more
closely the recent price action with the big negative gap yesterday and the
bounce on the critical support zone.
We now have a resistance zone around the 16300 level where we can find the
confluence of the red 21 moving average and the two trendlines. This
is where the sellers are likely to step in with a defined risk above the top
trendline to position for a break of the support with a better risk to reward
setup. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking above
the top trendline to invalidate the bearish setup and increase the bullish bets
into new highs.

Upcoming
Events

Today the US ADP and the US ISM Services PMI. Tomorrow,
we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures while on Friday we conclude the
week with the US NFP report.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.