Rate cuts by year-end

• Fed: 16 bps (65% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 75 bps

• ECB: 29 bps (85% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 147 bps

• BoE: 4 bps (85% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 71 bps

• BoC: 30 bps (82% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 92 bps

• RBA: 2 bps (91% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 54 bps

• RBNZ: 33 bps (67% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 87 bps

• SNB: 32 bps (72% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 70 bps

Rate hikes by year-end

• BoJ: 13 bps (53% probability of rate hike at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 48 bps

*where you see 25 bps rate cut, the rest of the probability is for a 50 bps cut

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental
Overview

The US Dollar remains the
strongest currency but overall, we haven’t got much action in the past couple
of weeks due to the lack of key catalysts and the market’s pricing remaining
largely unchanged around roughly three rate cuts by the end of 2025 despite a
series of strong US data.

This might be a signal that
we are bottoming out here and we could see a correction to the downside in the
US Dollar. This should translate in a higher GBP/USD exchange rate.

On the GBP side, last week
we got the UK CPI report with the data coming in higher than
expected. Moreover, the BoE’s members sounded a bit less dovish recently. This
has strengthened the probabilities for no change at the December meeting but
didn’t change much for the overall easing expectations in 2025.

GBPUSD
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that GBPUSD failed to sustain the break below the major trendline
and it’s now consolidating around the trendline. The buyers will likely keep on
piling in around these levels to position for a pullback into the downward
trendline. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price falling
back below the major trendline to target new lows.

GBPUSD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that the pair looks to be bottoming out here and we might see a pullback
into the major downward trendline. The first target for the buyers should be
the resistance
around the 1.27 handle where we can also find the 38.2% Fibonacci
retracement level for confluence.

GBPUSD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have a minor resistance zone around the 1.2615 level where the
price got rejected from several times in the past days. The buyers will want to
see a breakout to increase the bullish bets into new highs, while the sellers
will likely step in here to position for a drop into new lows. The red lines
define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming
Catalysts

Today we get the US PCE report and the latest US Jobless Claims figures.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

On the month itself, gold is still down around 3.5% and poised for its first monthly loss since June. And if this holds, it would be the biggest monthly loss for the precious metal this year. That says a lot about how bullish sentiment has been for gold during the last twelve to fourteen months, that only a 3% drop sounds „bad“.

The rebound last week week helped to limit the post-election stumble in gold. But buyers were dealt a setback earlier this week. I would argue some added profit-taking also had something to do with it. In any case, it dragged gold down to test the 38.2 Fib retracement level of the rebound last week before buyers stepped in. Here’s a look at the near-term chart:

The bounce today builds on the hold yesterday at the technical level above, before buyers moved on to keep price above its 200-hour moving average (blue line). But as price action is still below the 100-hour moving average (red line), the near-term bias stays more neutral for now.

As much as the pullback in gold prices this month might have been timely, the depth of the correction is hardly anything material. It’s not even putting a scratch on the armor to the gold rally this year, let alone a dent of any sorts.

The outlook for gold remains bullish and we’re moving towards a more seasonally favoured period as well for the precious metal. While positive on paper, the one-sidedness of the moves this year is the only gripe I still have with gold heading into December and January. That despite still retaining a more bullish outlook in the big picture.

Going back to today’s action, the latest bounce doesn’t mean much from a technical perspective yet. But it shows that buyers are still staying in the game and are keen to step in to maintain the bullish momentum this year. The test of the 100-day moving average earlier this month also reaffirms that.

So, we’ll see if buyers can keep this up with month-end in focus and the dollar also seeing some softer flows today.

A push back above the 100-hour moving average near $2,660 will be a key near-term test to watch. If so, buyers may look towards another run at the $2,700 mark once more going into December.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental
Overview

The US Dollar remains the
strongest currency but overall, we haven’t got much action in the past couple
of weeks due to the lack of key catalysts and the market’s pricing remaining
largely unchanged around roughly three rate cuts by the end of 2025 despite a
series of strong US data.

This might be a signal that
we are bottoming out here and we could see a correction to the downside in the
US Dollar. This should translate in a higher EUR/USD exchange rate.

On the EUR side, the
probabilities for a 50 bps cut in December rose to 63% from 26% last Friday due
to the weak Eurozone PMIs.

That might have been an
overreaction as the market pared back those expectations this week. This
morning we saw the probabilities strengthening for a 25 bps cut in December
after ECB’s
Schnabel said that she sees limited room for further rate cuts.

EURUSD Technical
Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that EURUSD erased all the losses from the Eurozone PMIs and it’s now
trading around the key 1.05 handle again. The buyers will likely pile in around
these levels to position for a pullback into the major upward trendline
around the 1.07 handle. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price
falling back below the 1.05 handle to increase the bearish bets into new lows.

EURUSD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we had a minor downward trendline defining the bearish momentum on
this timeframe. The price broke above the trendline and the 1.05 handle this
week which should give the buyers more conviction for a move to the major
trendline where we can also find the 61.8% Fibonacci
retracement level for confluence.

EURUSD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have a minor resistance
zone around the 1.0540 level where the price got rejected from several times in
the past days. This is where the sellers keep on stepping in to target new lows.
The buyers, on the other hand, will need the price to break higher to start
targeting new highs. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming
Catalysts

Today we get the US PCE report and the latest US Jobless Claims figures. Tomorrow,
we have the German inflation data, while on Friday we conclude the week with
the Eurozone Flash CPI.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior -18.3; revised to -18.4

That’s the weakest reading since May and it reaffirms the gloomier outlook surrounding the German economy as we look towards next year.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Why it’s important?

The ranges of estimates are
important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the
expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another
important input in market’s reaction is the distribution of forecasts.

In fact, although we can have a range of
estimates, most forecasts might be clustered on the upper bound of the
range, so even if the data comes out inside the range of estimates but
on the lower bound of the range, it can still create a surprise effect.

Distribution of forecasts for PCE

PCE Y/Y

• 2.4% (3%)
• 2.3% (86%) – consensus
• 2.2% (11%)

PCE M/M

• 0.4% (3%)
• 0.3% (16%)
• 0.2% (81%) – consensus

Core PCE Y/Y

• 2.8% (88%) – consensus
• 2.7% (12%)

Core PCE M/M

• 0.3% (87%) – consensus
• 0.2% (13%)

Analysis

We
can ignore the headline PCE as the market will focus on the Core
figures. We can see that there’s a pretty strong consensus for 2.8% Y/Y and 0.3% M/M readings. This shouldn’t be surprising given that forecasters can
reliably estimate the PCE once the CPI and PPI are out, so the market already
knows what to expect.

Therefore, unless we see an upside surprise, it shouldn’t affect the current market’s pricing of roughly three rate cuts by the end of 2025, and even then, it’s unlikely that we will see a big change as we will likely need a hot CPI in December to price out another rate cut.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Exxon Mobil Corp’s Upstream President Liam Mallon said at a conference in London that the Trump’s „drill, baby, drill“ will be unlikely under Trump because „the vast majority, if not everybody, is primarily focused on the economics of what they are doing“.

The US is pumping more than 13 million barrels of crude a day, exceeding
every other nation and up almost 45% in the past decade.

Click here to read the article.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Is Intel Stock a Buy or Sell? Here’s My Strategic Orientation for 2024 🎯

Hi, Itai Levitan here! 👋 If you’re looking at Intel stock (INTC) and wondering whether it’s time to buy the dip or sell the rally, here’s a flexible framework to consider. The market has its own rhythm, so this is an orientation you can adapt as you see fit. Let’s dive in!

Dip Buying: A Strategy to Watch for Potential Opportunities 🛒

When the price dips into areas I consider attractive, it may offer a great opportunity to scale into a position. Here’s one possible approach:

💡 Buy Zones:

• Level 1: 50 shares @ $18.95 (Cost: $948; 14.29% of budget)
• Level 2: 100 shares @ $18.29 (Cost: $1,829; 28.57% of budget)
• Level 3: 200 shares @ $17.57 (Cost: $3,514; 57.14% of budget)

Result? Weighted average entry price of $17.97.

🎯 Plan of Action:

• Stop Loss: $17.43 (-3% below entry).
• Take Profit: $21.21 (+18% above entry).
• Reward-to-Risk Ratio: 6:1 — a solid balance. 💪

✨ Flexibility Built In:

• If only two out of three orders are filled and price starts reversing up with an unrealized profit, you could take partial profits early instead of waiting for the full target.
• You don’t have to stick rigidly to the plan — adaptability is key!

Example Math:

• Full Position: 350 shares.
  • Total Entry Cost: $6,291.
  • If Take Profit Hits: Price reaches $21.21, resulting in a gain of $3.24 per share and a total hypothetical profit of $1,321. 🤑
  • If Stop Loss is Hit: Price drops to $17.43, resulting in a loss of $0.54 per share and a total hypothetical loss of $189.

Short Selling: An Opportunity to Watch for Higher Prices 🕵️‍♂️

If Intel’s price rises into key resistance zones, it might create shorting opportunities. Here’s a framework for scaling into a short position:

💡 Sell Zones:

• Level 1: 50 shares @ $29.08 (Cost: $1,454; 14.29% of budget)
• Level 2: 100 shares @ $30.16 (Cost: $3,016; 28.57% of budget)
• Level 3: 200 shares @ $31.08 (Cost: $6,216; 57.14% of budget)

Result? Weighted average entry price of $30.53.

🎯 Plan of Action:

• Stop Loss: $31.45 (+3% above entry).
• Take Profit: $25.04 (-18% below entry).
• Reward-to-Risk Ratio: Another 6:1.

✨ Flexibility Built In:

• Just as an exampe… Say price reaches the sell zone but fails to hit all three levels, and then starts declining, you could trail your stop loss — for example, moving it to breakeven. Meaning, you can decide to take partial profit along the way and/or move your stops (don’t do that too early cause you can get stoppd out).
• Waiting a few months for price to reach these zones? That’s okay too. Be patient and let the market come to you. Remember, we are looking here at prices that are quite far fom the current price, and we have a reason to believe others wll act in the zones identified, so patience is a must. It goes without saying that no one is promising that price will get to these zones, not to mention reverse there in your favor. There are mno promises here, only opinions of attractive reversal zone potential, with a detailed plan including a solid stop.

Example Math:

• Full Position: 350 shares.
  • Total Entry Cost: $10,686.
  • If Take Profit Hits: Price drops to $25.04, resulting in a gain of $5.50 per share and a total hypothetical profit of $1,923. 🤑
  • If Stop Loss is Hit: Price rises to $31.45, resulting in a loss of $0.92 per share and a total hypothetical loss of $321.

Why This Orientation Works 🧠

Here’s why this plan makes sense:

• Key Levels: Based on historical VWAPs, POCs, and value areas, where big players are likely to step in.
• Scaling in and out: Spreading your orders across levels gives you a smoother entry or exit.
• Adaptability: This isn’t a rigid plan — you can:
  • Adjust the position size.
  • Take profits early if the market behaves differently.
  • Trail your stop to lock in gains as price moves in your favor.

Key Takeaway ✨

This is an orientation, not a rigid roadmap. Markets are dynamic, and so should be your approach. Whether you’re looking to buy the dip or sell the rally:

• Be disciplined with your entries and exits.
• Keep your reward-to-risk ratio in mind.
• Stay flexible and ready to adjust based on how the market unfolds. Always have a stop for your swing trades or even buy and holds.
• This is only an opinion. Do your work research on INTC stock and visit ForexLive.com for additional views.

This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.

Axios reports that the AI czar will be charged with focusing both public and private resources to keep America in the AI forefront.

• The federal government has a tremendous need for AI technology, and the new czar would likely work with agency chief AI officers (which were established in President Biden’s AI executive order, and could survive Trump).
• The person also would work with DOGE ( Department of Government Efficiency) to use AI to root out waste, fraud and abuse, including entitlement fraud.
• The office would spur the massive private investment needed to expand the energy supply to keep the U.S. on the cutting edge.

Click here to read the Axios report.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

• Inflation expected to hit ECB’s target in 2025.
• Eurozone economy will grow slowly and recover gradually.
• Salary and services inflation remain persistent, maintain risk of inflation moderating more slowly than expected.
• If fresh statistics and forecast support current inflation and growth view, ECB should continue to cut rates.
• Downward direction of rates is clear and the pace depends on the data.
• We can cut in December if data and forecasts back it.
• My assessment is that we are moving towards neutral rates from restrictive rates.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.