• US February non-farm payrolls +275K vs +200K expected
• Canada February employment change 40.7K versus 20.0K estimate
• ECB sources report: Policymakers ‚overwhelmingly‘ favor June for first rate cut
• Fed’s Williams: Inflation expectations have come down quite a bit
• US Baker Hughes weekly oil rig count -2
• New York Fed Nowcast of Q1 GDP growth rises to 2.14% from 2.12% previously
• Canada Q4 capacity utilization rate 78.7% versus 79.7% last quarter

Markets:

• Gold up $18 to $2177
• US 10-year yields down 1.3 bps to 4.08%
• WTI crude oil down $1.07 to $77.86
• S&P 500 down 33 points, or 0.6%, to 5123
• JPY leads, CAD lags

I’m always leery of a pre-NFP front run and today is an example of why. The US dollar was soft and bonds bid for 24 hours before the report. When the data rolled out it was dovish. Yes, the headline beat but unemployment rose, revisions were much lower and wage growth was surprisingly soft. The initial reaction was for more USD selling but that was the extreme of the day. In the hours that followed the dollar weakness slowly reversed, with the help of a weak stock market.

The euro climbed up to 1.0980 on the NFP headlines but slowly slid back to 1.0930, which is slightly before the data was released. It didn’t get any help from the leak saying that only a few ECB members want to cut in April.

The pound was more resilient as it finished up 50 pips on the day but still gave back 50 pips from the highs in what could have been its strongest day since December. Still, it’s the best close of the year for the pond and breaks months of consolidation. That will be something to watch in the week ahead.

USD/JPY continues to be sold on BOJ hike speculation. That will be a key topic next week ahead of the March 19 decision as the leaks continue to roll in.

USD/CAD was a tough trade today. The Canadian jobs report was strong but so much is being driven by population growth that the market isn’t impressed. Later as the risk trade and oil stumbled, so did the loonie, erasing all the jobs moves and more.

Gold hit another all-time high but as it neared $2200, some aggressive selling hit. The turn in gold coincided with heavy profit taking in some high-flying stocks, particularly chipmakers with NVDA falling to $875 at the close from a record high of $974.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Not today.

The major indices are closing lower, and also lower for the week. The declines come after both S&P and NASDAQ indices reached new all-time high intraday levels.

The final numbers are showing:

• Dow industrial average -68.68 points or -0.18% at 38722.70
• S&P index -33.67 points or -0.65% at 5123.68
• NASDAQ index -188.27 points or -1.16% at 16085.10.

The small-cap Russell 2000 also fell by -2.02 point or -0.10% at 2082.71

For the trading week

• Dow industrial average, -0.93%
• S&P index, -0.26%
• NASDAQ index, -1.17%

The Russell 2000 was the only positive with a gain of 0.304%

Nvidia fears extended close to the $1000 level reaching $974 before reversing sharply to the downside in closing at $875.35. The low for the day reached down to $865.06 for a huge range of close to $110.

Conversely Apple shares snapped a seven day decline with a gain of $1.75 or 1.04% to $170.70.

Other losers today included:

• Super Micro Computers -1.73%
• Palo Alto Networks -2.23%
• Dell -3.53%
• Meta -1.22%
• ARM holdings -6.65%
• Broadcom, -6.99%
• Intel -4.66%
• Crowdstrike -2.07%
• Costco -7.64%
• Micron -1.37%
• Taiwan Semiconductor , -1.90%

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The oil market isn’t quite sure what it wants to do. This week, OPEC extended its production cut, the Saudis raised prices and US inventories tightened. But that wasn’t enough to get oil through $80 as it tried on Monday, Wednesday and today. Despite touching above $80 on a couple days, it failed to close above and never even matched last week’s intraday high of $80.85.

That’s not a great sign for crude, though the seasonals are still positive for March and April so there’s room for optimism. It pulled back to $77.84 today after failing at $79.99 so there are clearly technical players involved. We will see if signals from the physical market next week can re-assert themselves. Otherwise, a fall below $77.50 could be trouble.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

As the Friday trading day winds down, what are the key technical levels in play for the GBPUSD heading into the new trading week.

In the video above, I outline what to watch for technically in the trading week starting March 11.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The Japanese yen has been the big mover in European trading, as USD/JPY briefly dipped below 147.00 amid more hawkish BOJ murmurs during the session. Outside of that, the market moves so far today have been relatively contained for the most part.

The dollar remains vulnerable, down against the likes of the pound and aussie. But the euro is the laggard as ECB policymakers are out in droves to possibly put an April rate cut back on the table. I’m still skeptical but well, the commentary has been surprising to say the least. Then, we have gold sitting higher again and flirting with the $2,170 level on the day.

In other markets, equities are fairly tentative while Treasury yields are sitting slightly lower on the day. 10-year yields are down another 2 bps to 4.071% and that is keeping the dollar fairly subdued in the bigger picture for now.

It’s all about US jobs report coming up next to set the tone as we look to wrap things up this week. As mentioned earlier:

This looks to be a market that is wanting a release that will validate the moves this week i.e. softer dollar, stronger risk trades. That means it is going to take quite some convincing to turn sentiment around as we look towards the weekend. And barring any material change to the Fed outlook on the hawkish side, I reckon the play will be to fade any opposite reaction to the flows we have seen in the last few days. But we’ll see.

Here are a couple of previews ahead of the main event:

• Preview: February non-farm payrolls by the numbers. Eyes on earnings
• Goldman: What to expect from the US jobs report on Friday
• Here is what to watch for an extreme surprise in Friday’s US employment report

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

USD

• The Fed left interest rates unchanged as
  expected at the last meeting and dropped the tightening bias in the statement.
• The US PCE came
  in line with expectations.
• The US ADP and
  the US Job Openings missed
  expectations, followed by weaker than expected US Jobless Claims.
• The latest US ISM
  Manufacturing PMI missed expectations by a big margin
  remaining in contraction with the US ISM Services
  PMI
  following suit but holding on in expansion.
• The US Consumer
  Confidence missed expectations across the board.
• The market expects the first rate cut in June.

AUD

• The
  RBA left interest rates unchanged as expected with the central bank
  maintaining the usual tightening bias and data dependent language.
• The
  recent Monthly CPI report missed expectations across
  the board which was a welcome development for the RBA.
• The
  latest labour market report missed expectations by a big
  margin.
• The
  wage price index surprised to the upside as wage
  growth in Australia remains strong.
• The
  latest Australian PMIs showed the Manufacturing PMI falling
  back into contraction while the Services PMI jumped back into expansion.
• The
  market expects the first rate cut in August.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that AUDUSD eventually
bounced around the key 0.65 support zone and
extended the rally into the swing high at 0.6623. A successful break above this
level should open the door for a rally into the 0.69 resistance next. We can
also notice that the price is a bit overstretched as depicted by the distance
from the blue 8 moving average. In such
instances, we can generally see a pullback into the moving average or some
consolidation before the next move.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that in case we get
a pullback, the buyers will have the first support around the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level
where they will also find the red 21 moving average for confluence. The
sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking below the
Fibonacci level to increase the bearish bets into new lows.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see more
closely the recent price action with the pair now trading inside a rising
channel with the red 21 moving average acting as dynamic support. A break to
the downside should trigger a selloff into the Fibonacci level with the sellers
piling in with more conviction.

Upcoming Events

Today we conclude the week with the US NFP report.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

• GDP +0.1% vs +0.1% y/y second estimate

This just confirms zero growth in the euro area in the last quarter, after having marginally contracted in Q3 2023. It was a very poor year to say the least for the Eurozone but at least a technical recession is avoided, by the thinnest of margins.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

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This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

It looks like we’ve broken through the first key technical hurdle for USD/JPY on the way down, as sellers are firmly pushing price below the 100-day moving average (red line) of 147.70 today. The hawkish murmurs surrounding the BOJ continue to grow, as it seems like policymakers are teeing up a move in two weeks‘ time.

The spring wage negotiations is the key factor in play at the moment and we are likely to see some news on that on 13 March next week. That will come before the BOJ meeting on 19 March, leaving some room for policymakers to deliberate ending negative rates as early as this month.

And so, the yen is continuing to run higher as such after the BOJ got the ball rolling earlier this week.

USD/JPY is now down to 147.10 and may look to dip much further from here. The 38.2 Fib retracement level offers some minor support at 146.82 next. But I’m watching the 1 February low near 146.00 and the 200-day moving average (blue line) at 146.15 as the next big support region for the pair.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

USD

• The Fed left interest rates unchanged as
  expected at the last meeting and dropped the tightening bias in the statement.
• The US PCE came
  in line with expectations.
• The US ADP and
  the US Job Openings missed
  expectations.
• The latest US ISM
  Manufacturing PMI missed expectations by a big margin
  remaining in contraction with the US ISM Services
  PMI
  following suit but holding on in expansion.
• The US Consumer
  Confidence missed expectations across the board.
• The market expects the first rate cut in June.

EUR

• The ECB left interest rates unchanged as
  expected at the last meeting maintaining the usual data dependent language.
• The Eurozone CPI beat
  expectations.
• The labour market remains historically
  tight with the unemployment rate hovering at record lows.
• The latest Eurozone PMIs beat
  expectations on the Services side with the measure jumping back into expansion
  while the Manufacturing one missed dragged lower by Germany’s performance.
• The market expects the ECB to cut rates in June.

EURUSD Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that EURUSD probed
above the 1.09 handle yesterday but failed to sustain the breakout as the
sellers stepped in with a defined risk above it to position for a drop into the
1.0723 support. The
trend for now remains bullish as the price continues to make higher highs and
higher lows with the moving averages being
crossed to the upside. The buyers will want to see the price breaking higher to
invalidate the bearish setup and start targeting the 1.10 handle.

EURUSD Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that from a risk
management perspective, the buyers will have a much better risk to reward setup
around the trendline where
they will also find the confluence of the
61.8% Fibonacci retracement level
and the daily 21 moving average. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to
see the price breaking below the trendline to invalidate the bullish setup and
increase the bearish bets into the 1.0723 support.

EURUSD Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that the
buyers have another strong support zone around the 1.0870 where we can find the
confluence of the previous resistance turned
support, the minor trendline, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement
level and the 4-hour 21 moving average. This is where we can expect the buyers
to step in with a defined risk below the trendline to position for a break
above the 1.09 level and target the 1.10 handle. The sellers, on the other
hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to invalidate this bullish
setup and position for a drop into the major trendline.

Upcoming Events

Today we have the ECB rate decision and the US
Jobless Claims figures, while tomorrow we conclude the week with the US NFP
report.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.