On both charts, BMO highlights the slowing trend.

On a 6-month moving
average basis, this dragged the household survey’s payrolls growth to just 32k,
and even the establishment survey’s 6-month moving average has slipped to
effectively its lowest level since the pandemic. It’s no secret that labor is the
benchmark lagging indicator, and as such, the trend in hiring holds marginally
more weight than the outright level for monetary policymakers.

The latest jobs report is due Friday, December 8.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

• Powell: FOMC is ‚moving forward carefully‘ as risks around rates becoming more balanced
• Powell Q&A: Inflation is still well-above target but moving in the right direction
• US November ISM manufacturing PMI 46.7 vs 47.6 expected
• Canada November employment +24.9K vs +15.0K expected
• Gold touches an all-time high at $2075
• Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow 1.2% vs 1.8% prior
• Baker Hughes US oil rig count 505 vs 500 prior
• Fed’s Goolsbee: Inflation is coming down exactly as we want
• US October construction spending +0.6% vs +0.4% expected
• US S&P Global manufacturing PMI final for November 49.4 vs 49.4 prelim
• Canada November S&P Global manufacturing PMI 47.7 vs 48.6 prior

Markets:

• S&P 500 up 27 points, or 0.6%, to 4603
• Gold up $35 to $2071
• WTI crude oil down $1.70 to $74.26
• US 10-year yields down 13.3 bps to 4.56%
• AUD leads, EUR lags

Welcome to the new month, same as the old month.

The mood was to buy everything and sell oil, same as it was for all of November. It started out as a quiet one and a good Canadian jobs report moved the loonie into the poll position with it only up 30 pips on the day. From there though, a softer US ISM manufacturing report helped to kick off a wave of USD selling, particularly in USD/JPY.

In addition, stocks began to rip. Powell spoke similarly to Daly and Williams yesterday, which was mildly hawkish but in time the market ignored it and priced in even more rate cuts next year. Fed funds futures are now at 133 bps next year and 70% for the first one in March. That’s aggressive to say the least.

But the bigger picture theme is that we’re going back to the world of low rates and low inflation, not some kind of sticky, 1970s redux. That’s a major change and it’s what is driving everything.

Adding to that was another slump in oil, most of which came after Baker Hughes data showed the US adding more rigs. There’s a creeping feeling that we’re headed for another battle for market share because OPEC isn’t going to cut production again. That could be a big deflationary impulse, at least initially.

The euro didn’t benefit from the USD selling because inflation numbers in Europe are cratering, along with yields. The euro was particularly soft into the London fix, which points to flows and it staged a 50 pips recovery later to finish almost flat but still at the bottom of the pile beside the US dollar.

AUD is going to be one to watch in the year ahead. It was tops today and the housing market there just hasn’t cracked. That could keep the rate hiking cycle going longer but note that Chinese ETF FXI also hit at 52-week low today so maybe that’s an upside risk? Sentiment about China surely couldn’t get much worse.

Have a great weekend.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

• S&P 500 +0.6%
• DJIA +0.8%
• Nasdaq Comp +0.6%
• Russell 2000 +2.9%
• Toronto TSX Comp +1.0%

This is the fifth straight week of gains, sentiment is bubbly and Jim Cramer is bullish.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Oil fell sharply today in the past two hours. The catalyst: US oil drilling rigs rose by 5 in the latest Baker Hughes weekly count. OPEC+ now has around 5 million barrels per day of spare capacity and there’s no sign yet of US production growth falling (let alone declining). There had been hopes that demand growth next year would absorb OPEC spare capacity but even OPEC is only forecasting 2.5 million barrels per day in demand growth; so it would take another year like that to tighten the market.

In the meantime though, US production continues to expand, with some help from Canada, Guyana, Iran and Venezuela.

Worse is that this is very likely to be the limit of OPEC discipline. There won’t be another cut and there’s the very real possibility of a war for market share next year and a free-for-all, leading to oil in the $40s.

Now that would be great for the inflation picture but would put most private oil companies into a money-losing position. You would think that threat would discipline them, but here we are with rigs growing.

So the market is starting to price in a real mess in oil next year, or at least the risk of that.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

US 2s are down 15.6 bps to 4.55% and Fed funds futures are pricing in 132 bps of cuts next year. Pricing for the first cut on March 20 is now at 73%.

It’s tough to square this with a series of Fed officials saying they’re still more likely to hike rates and that it’s too early to abandon the hawkish bias. If you are to take them at their word, we shouldn’t even be talking about cuts until H2.

And that’s how markets used to work but it’s changed. Ten or 15 years ago, the market parsed Fed comments and then leaned one way or another.

Today, markets expect Fed officials to know exactly what’s priced in via the Fed funds futures market. Instead of watching what Fed officials say, it’s all about what they don’t say. The market has been pricing in cuts and waiting for the Fed to pushback, instead, it was Waller this week (a hawk) came out and said there are good arguments that if inflation continues falling for several more months that you could lower the policy rate.

That led to the market pricing in even more easing and still, no Fed official offered a hard pushback and Barkin address markets directly saying:

„Market bets on 4 rate cuts next year might be based on expectations for soft landing. I hope they are right“

The market is running with that now the Fed is headed into a blackout until December 13.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

It’s a rare occasion that we get to see the Fed chair be the one to be last on the agenda before the blackout period goes into effect. But ahead of this month’s FOMC meeting, this will be one of those times. As such, Powell will have the chance to set to record straight on whether he agrees or disagrees with what has been priced in about the Fed outlook. It is definitely going to be an interesting one and we could see some late market moves today all before the weekend: What to know ahead of Fed chair Powell’s appearance later in the day?

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• The Fed left interest rates unchanged as expected
  at the last meeting with basically no change to the statement.
• Fed Chair Powell stressed once again that they are
  proceeding carefully as the full effects of policy tightening have yet to be
  felt.
• The US Core PCE yesterday came in line
  with forecasts with the disinflationary progress continuing steady.
• The labour market is starting to show weakness as Continuing
  Claims are now rising at a fast pace and the recent NFP report missed across
  the board.
• The latest US PMIs came basically in line
  with expectations with a miss in the Manufacturing index and a beat in the
  Services measure.
• The US Consumer Confidence this week beat
  expectations although the details about the labour market continued to weaken.
• The hawkish Fed members recently shifted
  their stance to a more neutral position.
• The market doesn’t expect the Fed to hike anymore.

JPY

• The BoJ kept its monetary policy basically
  unchanged at the last meeting but formally widened the YCC to 1% on the 10-year
  JGBs stating that it will be a reference cap.
• Governor Ueda repeated once again
  that they won’t hesitate to take easing measures if needed and that they are
  not foreseeing sustainable price increases.
• The Japanese CPIlast week showed that inflation pressures are easing
  although they remain well above the BoJ’s 2% target.
• The latest Unemployment Rate ticked
  lower with the labour market remaining strong.
• The recent Japanese Manufacturing
  PMI fell further into contraction, but the Services PMI ticked higher remaining
  in expansion.
• The latest Japanese wage data beat
  expectations. As a reminder the BoJ is focusing on wage growth to decide
  whether to tweak its monetary policy.
• The market expects the BoJ to keep
  interest rates unchanged at the next meeting as well.

USDJPY Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see
that USDJPY managed to fall into the key
trendline around the 146.50 level where it bounced as the sellers might want to
wait for a stronger catalyst before going for the breakout. A break below the
trendline, and especially below the 145.00 handle, will be strong bearish
signals and will likely confirm the top in the pair with the cycle lows being
targeted next.

USDJPY
Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the latest leg
lower into the key upward trendline diverged with the MACD. This is generally a
sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or reversals. The
sellers should step in around the downward trendline with a defined risk above
it to position for a drop back into the major trendline and target a breakout.
The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to
invalidate the bearish setup and position for a rally back into the 150.00
handle.

USDJPY Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see more
closely the current price action around the trendline. What happens here will
likely decide where the pair goes next. A break to the upside should trigger a
rally into the 150.00 handle, while a rejection and a break below the 147.60
level will make things even more interesting as the sellers will target a breakout.

Upcoming Events

Today, the main event will
be the release of the US ISM Manufacturing PMI which missed expectations by a
big margin the last time. A strong report is likely to give another boost to
the US Dollar while weak figures could weigh on the greenback in the short term.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

Powell will be making two appearances today but at a similar event at the Spelman College. They are late ones and even more so on a Friday, as he is slated to speak at 1600 GMT and then at 1900 GMT. Here’s the agenda:

The first chat will center around „the challenges of the post-Covid economy“ before the roundtable discussion kicks off later in the day.

Given the setting, it looks like there could be room for Powell to be questioned on the Fed outlook and the key thing to watch out for now will be his remarks on interest rates. And that will be even more crucial now especially after Fed governor Waller’s remarks earlier this week here.

Will Powell double down on that or will he push back against what Waller had mentioned when it comes to rate cuts and the timing of easing monetary policy? That is the main thing to keep an eye out for.

It is also important to get a sense of what markets have priced in going into Powell’s appearance later today. Right now, there is roughly 115 bps worth of rate cuts priced in for the Fed for next year alone. The first rate cut is priced in for May right now and personally, I think we’re at the limit already in terms of pricing in added dovishness for the Fed.

The current pricing suggests that we are going to see rate cuts come within six months and that is nowhere near what the Fed had suggested with their earlier talk of higher rates for longer. So, are traders getting it wrong or is the Fed eventually going to cave in? I guess we’ll see.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Tesla Inc. (TSLA) remains a highly watched stock in the market, with its daily price movements offering significant insights for investors. Equipped with an updated chart featuring detailed price labels, this analysis will integrate these specific price points to offer a refined perspective for both swing traders and long-term holders considering their positions in TSLA. For those interested in other stocks hub page, check out our ddaily updates stocks page and choose a stock symbol that may interest you,

Swing Trader Analysis for TSLA STOCK: KEY PRICE LEVELS

• Resistance Retreat: TSLA’s price pulling back from the 1st upper VWAP line at $240.88, after a bearish candle, indicates a short-term resistance area.
• Downward Journey: The price decrease from the VAH line at $252.75 suggests a potential trajectory towards the POC line at $235.59.
• Support Levels: Should the downtrend persist, the next support is at the VWAP line at $228.6, followed by the VAL line at $220.73.

Price Forecast for Tesla Swing Traders: Key Support and Resistance to Monitor

• Immediate Resistance for TSLA stock: The 2nd and 3rd upper VWAP lines at $252.80 and $264.73, respectively, serve as crucial short-term ceilings.
• Potential Support Reversal for TSLA stock: The POC at $235.59 may provide a rebound point, while the lower VWAP lines at $217.04 and $205.11 offer subsequent support levels.

Long-Term Investor Insights: Strategic Price Points for Tesla stock

• Evaluating Entry and Exit: The current pullback near the upper VWAP lines suggests a re-evaluation of entry points, with the POC at $235.59 acting as a potential accumulation zone.
• Monitoring Lower Supports: The VAL at $220.73 and the lower VWAP bands ($217.04, $205.11, and $193.19) are critical for determining long-term support strength.

Conclusion: Strategic Investment Decisions Ahead for TSLA Traders and Investors

The detailed daily chart of TSLA presents specific price levels that are instrumental for traders and investors. Swing traders can leverage the resistance and support labels to make precise moves, while long-term investors may find these levels helpful for assessing the stock’s value and making informed decisions. Understanding these price points, in conjunction with TSLA’s market activity, is vital for navigating investment strategies effectively.

This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.

• The Fed left interest rates unchanged as expected
  at the last meeting with basically no change to the statement.
• Fed Chair Powell stressed once again that they are
  proceeding carefully as the full effects of policy tightening have yet to be
  felt.
• The US Core PCE yesterday came in line
  with forecasts with the disinflationary progress continuing steady.
• The labour market is starting to show weakness as Continuing
  Claims are now rising at a fast pace and the recent NFP report missed across
  the board.
• The latest US PMIs came basically in line
  with expectations with a miss in the Manufacturing index and a beat in the
  Services measure.
• The US Consumer Confidence this week beat
  expectations although the details about the labour market continued to weaken.
• The hawkish Fed members recently shifted
  their stance to a more neutral position.
• The market doesn’t expect the Fed to hike anymore.

GBP

• The BoE kept interest rates
  unchanged as expected at the last meeting.
• The central bank is leaning towards
  keeping interest rates “higher for longer”, although it keeps a door open for
  further tightening if inflationary pressures were to be more persistent.
• The BoE members continue to repeat
  that they will keep rates high for long enough to get inflation back to target.
• The latest employment report beat
  expectations with wage growth remaining at elevated levels.
• The UK CPI missed expectations
  across the board, which was a welcome development for the BoE.
• The UK PMIs last week beat
  expectations on both the Manufacturing and Services measures, with the Services
  sector crawling back in expansion.
• The latest UK Retail Sales missed
  expectations across the board by a big margin as consumer spending remains
  weak.
• The market doesn’t expect the BoE to
  hike anymore.

GBPUSD Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that GBPUSD recently
broke through the key resistance around the 1.26 handle where we had also the
50% Fibonacci retracement level for confluence. The pair managed to extend the
rally to the 1.12750 level where it got rejected from the 61.8% Fibonacci
retracement level of the entire fall from the cycle high. The sellers will now
want to see the price falling back below the 1.26 handle to pile in and target
new lows.

GBPUSD Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the pair has
been diverging with the MACD for quite some time as it approached the key
resistance level. This is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed
by pullbacks or reversals. In this case, the buyers are likely to lean on the
trendline and the previous resistance that now might act as support. The
sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to
position for a drop into new lows.

GBPUSD Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see more
closely the bullish setup around the trendline and the support level. What
happens here will likely decide where the pair will go in the next few weeks. A
bounce and a break above the 1.2670 level should confirm another rally, while a
break below the trendline and the support is likely to trigger a selloff into
the 1.24 handle.

Upcoming Events

Today, the main event will
be the release of the US ISM Manufacturing PMI which missed expectations by a
big margin the last time. A strong report is likely to give another boost to
the US Dollar while weak figures could weigh on the greenback in the short term.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.