• Sees 10-year Treasury yields at 3.7% by the end of 2024
• The pain coming from higher rates has been postponed
• It will come next year and in 2025
• Markets are overlooking the risk of a ‚bad surprise‘ on inflation
• Does not think that markets are prepared for inflation to change course

That is certainly something to watch out for and as far as curveballs go, this is one that markets should be bracing for in case. And it is one reason that perhaps would work in the dollar’s favour to counter the argument that we’re now poised for an imminent demise in the currency heading into next year.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Copper broke out of the
triangle in the first part of the week and triggered a rally into the next
resistance defined by a trendline. The recent positive Chinese activity data
could have been the catalyst for the breakout which triggered momentum buyers
to join the bullish wave. Overall, the picture is still murky, and the global
growth outlook is more likely to weaken with the central banks keeping monetary
conditions tight.

Copper Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that Copper broke
out of the triangle in the
first part of the week and rallied into the trendline formed
with the fakeout from last August. The price got rejected at the first try as
the rally was a bit overstretched and needed a bit of a pullback. We can expect
the sellers to keep leaning on this trendline to position for a drop back into
the 3.55 support.

Copper Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that after the
rejection the price bounced on the upward trendline where there was also the
50% Fibonacci retracement level
for confluence. The
buyers will want to see the price breaking above the major downward trendline
to increase the bullish bets into the 3.90 level. The sellers, on the other
hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets
into the 3.55 support.

Copper Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see more
closely the current price action. We will likely see some consolidation inside
these key levels with market participants waiting for a breakout. The playbook
looks clear though: a break to the upside is likely to lead to a rally into the
3.90 level, while a break to the downside should trigger a correction at least
into the 3.75 support.

Upcoming Events

Today the US will be on holiday for Thanksgiving Day
and therefore the liquidity in the market will be thinner. Tomorrow, we
conclude the week with the US PMIs where weaker data is likely to put some
pressure on Copper, while strong figures should support it in the short-term.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

And that is pared back from around the middle of next year before this. So, what changed? I detailed some thoughts earlier in my post about GBP/USD:

„For one, there are a couple of things to be mindful of with the UK headlines today. With regards to the PMI data, the economy looks to be in better shape than feared in Q4 and that will give the BOE more breathing room on rates. Besides that, the data also highlights more stubborn inflation pressures and that will see the central bank stick with a more hawkish rhetoric for as long as they can get away with it. And if the economy continues to hold up, who is to say that we might not see another rate hike? Other than that, we also had Ofgem announce a higher price cap on energy prices and that will feed into inflation pressures too in the bigger picture.“

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The pound is finding comfort from the better-than-expected UK PMI data earlier here, with GBP/USD now rising up by 0.5% to 1.2550 levels. The thing to note about the rise today is that perhaps buyers are looking to be able to shake off key resistance around 1.2500 with the 100-day moving average (red line) also resting nearby.

That has kept price action more contained so far this week but we might just finally get a breakout today after the better data. The question is, can the break hold and is the data significant enough to warrant that?

I reckon that it just might. For one, there are a couple of things to be mindful of with the UK headlines today. With regards to the PMI data, the economy looks to be in better shape than feared in Q4 and that will give the BOE more breathing room on rates. Besides that, the data also highlights more stubborn inflation pressures and that will see the central bank stick with a more hawkish rhetoric for as long as they can get away with it. And if the economy continues to hold up, who is to say that we might not see another rate hike?

Other than that, we had Ofgem announce a higher price cap on energy prices and that will feed into inflation pressures too in the bigger picture.

So, these are decent developments that could turn the picture around for the pound; in the sense that it is going to keep a firmer BOE outlook on rates at least. And that might be enough for cable to contest a move higher amid a technical break, as the dollar remains weak across the board as well.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

USD

• The Fed left interest rates unchanged as
  expected at the last meeting with basically no change to the statement.
• Fed Chair Powell stressed
  once again that they are proceeding carefully as the full effects of policy
  tightening have yet to be felt.
• The recent US CPI missed
  expectations across the board bringing the expectations for rate cuts
  forward. 
• The labour market is
  starting to show weakness as Continuing Claims are now
  rising at a fast pace and the recent NFP report
  missed across the board, but yesterday the US Jobless Claims beat
  forecasts giving the USD a short-term boost.
• The latest US ISM
  Manufacturing PMI missed expectations by a big margin,
  followed by a disappointing ISM Services PMI,
  although the latter remained in expansion.
• The recent US Retail Sales beat
  expectations, while the US PPI missed
  forecasts by a big margin.
• The recent Fedspeak has been leaning on
  the hawkish side, but last week’s inflation report pretty much confirmed that
  the Fed might be done for the cycle.
• The market doesn’t
  expect the Fed to hike anymore.

CAD

• The BoC left interest rates at 5.00% as expected at the last meeting but
  remains prepared to raise rates further if needed.
• BoC Governor Macklem delivered a less hawkish speech in
  the press conference compared to his previous remarks.
• The recent Canadian CPI missed expectations across the
  board and the underlying inflation measures eased, which was a welcome
  development for the BoC.
• On the labour market side, the latest report missed expectations
  across the board with negative figures in full-time employment and slowing wage
  growth, which is going to be another positive outcome for the central bank.
• The market doesn’t expect the BoC to
  hike anymore.

USDCAD Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that USDCAD has
finally reached the key trendline around
the 1.3650 level. This is where we can expect the buyers to step in more
aggressively with a defined risk below the trendline to position for a rally
back into the highs and eyeing a break to the upside. The sellers, on the other
hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets
into the 1.34 handle.

USDCAD Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have some
key support and
resistance zones. The buyers should pile in at the support zone around the
1.3650 level with a defined risk below it. If we see a bounce, the sellers will
lean on the resistance zone around the 1.3750 level where we will also find the
downward trendline for confluence.

USDCAD Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see more
closely the bullish setup around the major trendline and the support zone at
1.3650. A break below this zone should invalidate the bullish setup and
increase the bearish momentum into the 1.34 handle. On the other hand, a break
above the resistance zone and the trendline should increase the bullish
momentum as the buyers will add even more to their upside bets and the sellers
will likely fold.

Upcoming Events

Today the US will be on holiday for Thanksgiving Day
and therefore the liquidity in the market will be thinner. Tomorrow, we
conclude the week with the Canadian Retail Sales and the US PMIs.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

Peer-to-Peer Transactions

One of the primary uses of Bitcoin is for peer-to-peer
transactions. Unlike traditional banking systems, which involve intermediaries
such as banks or financial institutions, Bitcoin allows users to transact
directly with each other. This eliminates the need for third-party involvement,
reducing transaction costs and increasing efficiency.

International Payments

Bitcoin can be used for international payments, enabling
fast and low-cost transactions across borders. Traditional methods of sending
money internationally often involve high fees and lengthy processing times.
Bitcoin’s decentralized nature and borderless nature make it an attractive
option for individuals and businesses seeking fast and affordable cross-border
payments.

E-commerce

Many online merchants now accept Bitcoin as a form of
payment. By integrating Bitcoin into their payment systems, these merchants can
tap into a global customer base and provide an additional payment option for
their customers. Bitcoin transactions are irreversible, reducing the risk of
chargebacks for merchants. Furthermore, Bitcoin’s pseudonymous and secure
nature can help protect customers‘ privacy and personal information during
online transactions.

Investment and Speculation

Bitcoin has gained significant attention as an investment
asset. Many individuals buy and hold Bitcoin as a long-term investment,
speculating on its potential future value. The decentralized nature of Bitcoin
and its limited supply contribute to its appeal as a store of value.
Additionally, Bitcoin’s price volatility presents opportunities for traders to
profit from short-term price movements.

Remittances

Bitcoin has become increasingly popular for remittances,
allowing individuals to send money back home to their families in a
cost-effective manner. Traditional money transfer services often charge high
fees and have cumbersome processes. Bitcoin provides a more accessible
alternative, enabling faster and cheaper cross-border money transfers.

Micropayments

Bitcoin’s divisibility makes it suitable for micropayments,
which are small transactions that traditional payment systems struggle to
handle due to excessive fees. With Bitcoin, users can send tiny amounts of
value quickly and efficiently, unlocking new possibilities for content
creators, artists, and online service providers. This opens up revenue streams
that were previously uneconomical or inaccessible.

Financial Inclusion

Bitcoin has the potential to provide financial services to
the unbanked and underbanked populations worldwide. With a smartphone and
internet access, anyone can participate in the Bitcoin network and access basic
financial services without relying on traditional banking infrastructure. This
could empower individuals in developing countries and enable them to engage in
global commerce.

In conclusion, Bitcoin’s usage extends beyond being solely a
digital currency. Its decentralized nature, low transaction costs, and
accessibility make it appealing for peer-to-peer transactions, international
payments, e-commerce, investment, remittances, micropayments, and promoting
financial inclusion. As the adoption of cryptocurrencies continues to grow,
Bitcoin is likely to play an increasingly
significant role in shaping the future of digital finance.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

Understanding investor psychology is crucial because it
helps explain why financial markets are not always efficient and why bubbles
and market crashes occur. By recognizing the various behavioral biases that
investors exhibit, researchers and practitioners can develop strategies to take
advantage of these biases or minimize their impact on investment decisions.

One of the key findings in behavioral finance is that
investors tend to be overconfident in their abilities. This overconfidence bias
leads investors to believe that they can consistently outperform the market and
make accurate predictions about future stock prices. However, numerous studies
have shown that individual investors, on average, underperform compared to the
overall market. This phenomenon can be attributed to overtrading, chasing
trends, and excessive risk-taking driven by overconfidence.

Another important bias identified in behavioral finance is
loss aversion. Investors tend to feel the pain of losses more strongly than the
pleasure of gains, which leads them to make irrational decisions. Loss aversion
can result in selling winning stocks too early to secure profits while holding
onto losing stocks in the hope of a rebound. These behaviors can lead to
suboptimal portfolio performance and missed opportunities for diversification.

The availability bias is another factor that affects
investor decision-making. This bias occurs when individuals rely heavily on
readily available information when making investment choices. For example,
investors may fixate on recent news or media reports and base their investment
decisions solely on that information, without considering its relevance or
accuracy. The availability bias can lead to herd behavior in financial markets,
where investors follow the crowd instead of conducting thorough analysis.

Cognitive errors, such as anchoring and confirmation bias,
also play a significant role in shaping investor behavior. Anchoring refers to
the tendency to rely too heavily on initial information when making subsequent
judgments. For instance, an investor may anchor their decision-making process
based on the stock’s price at which they initially bought it, rather than
reassessing its current value. Confirmation bias occurs when individuals seek
out and interpret information that confirms their existing beliefs while
ignoring contradicting evidence. This bias can lead to tunnel vision and hinder
objective decision-making.

Understanding these behavioral biases can help investors
make more informed decisions and avoid some of the pitfalls associated with
irrational behavior. By acknowledging the influence of emotions, biases, and
cognitive errors on investment choices, individuals can develop strategies to
counteract these effects. Techniques such as diversification, adopting a
long-term perspective, and seeking unbiased information can help investors
mitigate the impact of behavioral biases.

In conclusion, behavioral finance provides valuable insights
into the factors that shape investor psychology. By recognizing and
understanding the various biases and cognitive errors that investors exhibit,
we can gain a deeper understanding of why financial markets behave the way they
do. Armed with this knowledge, investors can make more rational decisions and improve their overall investment
performance.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

Kaspa –
Fast, Safe, and Decentralized – The cradle of a true peer-to-peer blockchain
payment system

Kaspa is
not just any blockchain; it stands as a groundbreaking achievement in the world
of decentralized technology. Boasting the title of the fastest open-source
blockchain, Kaspa is designed to meet the needs of the modern world. Its unique
architecture, the world’s first blockDAG, permits parallel blocks and instant
transaction confirmation, all underpinned by a robust proof-of-work engine with
rapid single-second block intervals.

Kaspa
has been crafted by industry pioneers and is driven by a community-led ethos.
It prioritizes speed, scalability, and decentralization, making it a standout
option in the blockchain landscape.

As the
Bitcoin network grapples with overwhelming unconfirmed transactions and surging
fees, Kaspa emerges as a compelling alternative, offering near-instant
transaction confirmations and the ability to handle significant
throughput.  

Kaspa’s
commitment to a robust proof-of-work engine ensures that it’s secure and
reliable, while its blockDAG structure allows for unmatched scalability and
transaction efficiency. The single-second block intervals set a new standard
for blockchain speed and responsiveness.

Moreover,
Kaspa is evaluating the adoption of Smart Contracts with the technology known
as Rollups (RU), designed to improve the speed and efficiency of blockchain
transactions. With smart contract support, Kaspa unlocks a new realm of
numerous future possibilities and payment solutions.

2nd-anniversary
celebration – $1 million USD worth of $KAS Airdrop Campaign + KASBOTS NFT

To
celebrate Kaspa’s 2nd birthday and the launch of the 1 Million Airdrop Campaign
with Coinpal.io, OKX, ICERiver, IGV, and Rhubarb Media on OKX Cryptopedia, all
people are invited to partake in this remarkable event. This is not just a
celebration of Kaspa’s journey but also a recognition of its role in shaping
the future of blockchain technology.

Where: Participants need to visit
the OKX Wallet Mobile App and go to the Cryptopedia X Kaspa season event to
start participating.

How: Participants need to
complete the tasks and gain the exquisite KASbots NFTs at no cost!! And
then have the opportunity to receive the 1 million USD worth of $KAS
Airdrop. 

Please
note that DAGKnight is a rare category/ lottery ticket, for participants who
mint it will have the opportunity to receive special rewards!

The 1
Million Airdrop Campaign represents a unique, limited-time opportunity,
inviting participants to join in this extraordinary celebration.

Happy
Birthday Kaspa! Let’s begin the celebration party!!

About
Kaspa

Kaspa (https://kaspa.org/) is a
pioneering open-source, decentralized, and fully scalable Layer-1 blockchain
network. Its revolutionary architecture, featuring the world’s first blockDAG,
delivers parallel blocks and instant transaction confirmations with rapid
single-second block intervals. Developed by industry leaders and guided by a
community-driven approach, Kaspa offers unparalleled speed, scalability, and
decentralization in the blockchain world.

About
Coinpal.io

Coinpal is the
crypto payment service provider holding both Electronic Money Institution (EMI)
and exchange licenses from the European Union, aiming to be the bridge to
connect both premium merchant partners and the blockchain community to enable
more payment usage scenarios to use their tokens as a payment method for both
online and offline to empower crypto payments, and enrich the blockchain
communities.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

USD/JPY ended four days of selling yesterday with a doji star and now a retracement is underway. The pair is up 44 pips to 148.83.

It traded as high as 149.34 earlier but has since sagged. The mood in markets is quiet ahead of the US holiday but also moderately negative. US equity futures are down about 0.2% and oil prices off by nearly $1.

Yen crosses are broadly higher today but have only recouped a fraction of their recent losses.

Looking ahead, eyes will be on the Bank of Japan and the possibility for yen-supportive policy changes like ending yield-curve control or beginning a cycle of rate hikes. Officials have signaled a plan to patiently lift rates starting in the spring but it will depend on how economic data evolves. For now, they also have some respite on the currency side with the US dollar softening on expectations of a dovish Fed turn. That, however, could swing with upcoming US economic data, including today’s weekly jobless claims report.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

• Order book balance -35 vs -26 prior
• Output balance for the past three months -17 vs -6
• Output price expectations +11 vs +7 prior

The latest UK manufacturing data point to a stagflationary environment with orders down the most in nearly three years and prices rising. Factories are struggling with weak demand due to high interest rates.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.