If you’ve been glued to yours screens waiting for that USD/JPY push towards 150.00 again, it must be a real snoozer over the last 1.5 hours. Here’s the minute price action in the pair and it shows a roughly 8-10 pips range:

At this stage, it’s all about anticipating the things that will or might come next in markets. We know what those are but we don’t know what the bigger picture reaction that may be. Let’s take stock of the the key focus points right now.

1. The bond market. 10-year Treasury yields are down slightly today to 4.95% but it’s all about the trigger at 5% and if that will have broader market spillovers to follow. Or perhaps we could hit stops and see a retracement of sorts first, before revisiting that in the near future.
2. The Israel-Hamas conflict. And now we can sort of add in tensions at the Israel-Lebanon border as Hezbollah starts to interfere as well. There’s so much uncertainty breeding in the region and that is keeping commodities entertained. Gold is up alongside oil but broader markets are not too heavily impacted yet. However, there’s still the potential flight to safety before the weekend to consider.
3. USD/JPY and Tokyo intervention. According to some charts, we clipped the 150.00 mark earlier and that saw a brief drop to 149.73 (or perhaps lower on some charts) before getting bought back up. That to me reads as stops being triggered rather than any Japanese meddling but if we do catch a bid back above the figure level, could Tokyo step in again? There’s only one way to find out.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

US:

• The Fed left interest rates unchanged as expected at the last meeting.
• The macroeconomic projections were revised higher,
  and the Dot Plot showed that the FOMC still expects another rate hike by the
  end of the year with less rate cuts projected in 2024.
• Fed Chair Powell reaffirmed their data dependency but added that
  they will proceed carefully.
• The US CPI last week beat expectations on the
  headline figures, but the core measures came in line with forecasts and the
  market’s pricing barely changed.
• The labour market remains fairly solid as seen once again yesterday
  with the beat inJobless Claims, although continuing claims missed for a second
  time in a row.
• The US PMIs
  recently showed that the US economy remains pretty resilient.
• The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report last Friday missed across the
  board with the inflation expectations figures spiking back up.
• The US Retail Sales this week beat expectations by a big
  margin with positive revisions to the prior figures.
• The Fed members continue to cite elevated long-term
  yields as a reason to proceed carefully and will likely pause in November as
  well.
• Fed Chair Powell yesterday highlighted the rise in long term yields
  as well and the need to “proceed carefully”.
• The market doesn’t expect the Fed to hike anymore.

New Zealand:

• The RBNZ kept its official cash rate
  unchanged while
  stating that demand growth continues to ease and it’s expected to decline
  further with monetary conditions remaining restrictive.
• The New Zealand inflation data this week missed expectations
  supporting the RBNZ’s stance.
• The employment data surprised to the upside
  recently.
• The wage growth has also missed
  expectations and it’s something that the central banks are watching closely.
• The recent New Zealand Retail Sales beat expectations although the data
  remains deeply negative.
• The Manufacturing PMI continues to slide further into
  contraction, but the Services PMI jumped back into expansion.
• The RBNZ is expected to keep the
  cash rate steady at the next meeting as well.

NZDUSD Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that the NZDUSD pair
managed to eventually break the low following the miss in the New Zealand CPI
and the strong US data. The bearish momentum continues to be weak, but the bias
remains skewed to the downside. The recent drop got a bit overstretched as
depicted by the distance from the blue 8 moving average. In such
instances, we can generally see a pullback into the moving average or some
consolidation before the next move.

NZDUSD Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have a good
resistance now
around the 0.5860 level where we can find the confluence with the
trendline, the
38.2% Fibonacci retracement level
and the red 21 moving average. This is where we can expect the sellers to keep
piling in with a defined risk above the trendline to target new lows. The
buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to
invalidate the bearish setup and target a rally back into the 0.60 handle.

NZDUSD Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see more
closely the key levels to watch out for. From a risk management perspective,
the best spot for the sellers was the resistance around the 0.5860 level. Late
sellers may want to wait for the price to take out the low before joining the
trend but with a worse risk to reward setup. The buyers, on the other hand,
should wait for the break above the trendline before considering new longs.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

Headlines:

• 5%.. Ready or not? Here we go..
• Dollar keeps more mixed so far on the day
• Japan’s Kanda: It will become ’noise‘ if we announce every FX intervention
• Japan’s Kanda: It is normal not to announce FX intervention immediately after it is done
• Japan’s largest labour union says aiming for 5% wage hike or more next spring
• BOJ raises economic assessment for 6 of Japan’s 9 regions in latest Sakura report
• France October business confidence 98 vs 100 prior
• Switzerland September trade balance CHF 6.32 billion vs CHF 4.05 billion prior

Markets:

• EUR leads, NZD lags on the day
• European equities lower; S&P 500 futures down 0.1%
• US 10-year yields up 6.2 bps to 4.979%
• Gold up 0.2% to $1,950.77
• WTI crude down 1.0% to $87.46
• Bitcoin up 0.6% to $28,438

It was a slower session in general as markets are waiting with bated breath for 10-year Treasury yields to hit the 5% mark. It has been the case since the handover from Asia trading, with 10-year yields hovering around 4.95% to 4.97% mostly during the session.

Despite that, the dollar is failing to take much of a hint as it trades more mixed across the board. USD/JPY is still unable to muster enough power to retest the 150.00 mark again amid Tokyo intervention fears. Meanwhile, EUR/USD is actually up 0.2% to 1.0557 although the range for the day is still rather limited.

GBP/USD is down 0.2% to 1.2115 while AUD/USD is down 0.4% to 0.6310 after a softer Australian jobs report earlier today.

In other markets, stocks are also keeping more defensive with US futures slightly lower. Meanwhile, European indices are down across the board as they build on the drop from Wall Street yesterday.

Looking to commodities, gold continues to keep steady and ignore the bond market developments as it keeps around $1,950. Meanwhile, oil is tracking lower and looks to erase its weekly gains as the back and forth continues.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

If there is one word to describe price action in the dollar this week, sideways would be the best I reckon. The greenback is trading more mixed once again today, keeping an advance against the aussie and kiwi while sitting lower against the euro and franc. Meanwhile, the pound is a touch softer while the yen is mildly higher as USD/JPY continues to consolidate below 150.00:

Apart from a hiccup here, Tokyo intervention fears is still keeping the pair down despite a surge higher in Treasury yields this week. 10-year yields are closing in on the 5% mark but still, we are in the same spot as we were at the end of last week for USD/JPY.

EUR/USD on the other hand continues to hold in between 1.0500 and 1.0600 on the week, struggling to cement any dollar strength arising from higher yields. That might be the clearest indication that if and when yields retrace – which could happen upon touching 5% – then we might see a decent unwinding in dollar longs.

For now, all eyes remain on the bond market and we’ll see if there will be any further reaction to US data later today with the weekly jobless claims and Philly Fed manufacturing index coming up.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

US:

• The Fed left interest rates unchanged as expected at the last meeting.
• The macroeconomic projections were revised higher,
  and the Dot Plot showed that the FOMC still expects another rate hike by the
  end of the year with less rate cuts projected in 2024.
• Fed Chair Powell reaffirmed their data dependency but added that
  they will proceed carefully.
• The US CPI last week beat expectations on the
  headline figures, but the core measures came in line with forecasts and the
  market’s pricing barely changed.
• The labour market remains fairly solid as seen once again last week
  with the beat in Jobless Claims, although continuing claims surprisingly missed.
• The US PMIs
  recently showed that the US economy remains pretty resilient.
• The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report last Friday missed across the
  board with the inflation expectations figures spiking back up.
• The US Retail Sales this week beat expectations by a big
  margin with positive revisions to the prior figures.
• The Fed members continue to cite elevated long-term
  yields as a reason to proceed carefully and will likely pause in November as
  well.
• The market doesn’t expect the Fed to hike anymore.

UK:

• The BoE kept interest rates unchanged at the last meeting.
• The central bank is leaning more
  towards keeping interest rates “higher for longer”, although it kept a door
  open for further tightening if inflationary pressures were to be more
  persistent.
• The latest employment report showed a slowdown in wage growth
  and some job losses in September which could point to a softening labour
  market.
• The UK CPI yesterday slightly beat expectations but given
  the softening in the labour market it’s unlikely to change the BoE’s stance.
• The latest UK PMIs showed further contraction, especially in the
  Services sector.
• The market doesn’t expect the BoE to
  hike anymore.

GBPUSD Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that the GBPUSD pair
rejected the key resistance around
the 1.2310 level where we had also the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level
and the trendline for confluence. The
slight beat in the UK CPI hasn’t led to a rally in the pound as the market
doesn’t see it as game-changing. The bearish bias remains intact as the UK
labour market is starting to weaken while the US jobs data continues to
surprise to the upside.

GBPUSD Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the pair broke
out of the range between the 1.2120 support and the 1.2220 resistance. This
remains a sellers’ market, so the buyers should wait for some key upside
breakout. The sellers, on the other hand, should step in at every pullback and
target a break below the previous lows.

GBPUSD Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see more
closely the recent breakout with the price rejecting the red 21 moving average before
making new lows. The bearish momentum looks to be strong but the sellers will
have a much better risk to reward setup if the price pulls back into the broken
support turned resistance where we can find the trendline and the red 21 moving
average for confluence. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the
price breaking above the trendline and the resistance to invalidate the bearish
setup and start targeting the resistance around the 1.2220 level.

Upcoming Events

Today we will get the latest US Jobless Claims
report and the market will want to see if the miss in Continuing Claims last
week was just a blip or the start of a trend. Later in the day, we will also
hear from Fed Chair Powell where the market will be focused on any hint about
the near-term policy outlook. Tomorrow, we will also see the latest UK Retail
Sales data.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

OKX, a leading
crypto exchange and Web3 technology company, today announced that futures
spreads trading volumes on its Liquid Marketplace, a spot OTC, futures spreads
and options liquidity network, reached a record monthly high of US$1.54 billion
in September 2023. This achievement represents 62%* of the institutional market
share for futures spreads for the month.

Since
the July 2023 launch of Nitro Spreads, a venue under OKX’s Liquid Marketplace
for institutional traders to execute basis, futures spreads and funding rate
arbitrage strategies, OKX’s cumulative futures spreads volumes led the market
from August 28 to October 11 in 2023.

OKX’s
volumes on futures spreads also excelled during ‚high-water mark‘ volume days,
with OKX futures spreads notional volumes exceeding the 100 million USDT mark
on four occasions within the date range (on September 12, September 19,
September 28 and October 10 in 2023).

These
trading volume milestones solidify OKX’s Liquid Marketplace as the go-to venue
for institutional traders looking to take advantage of superior liquidity for a
range of trades, including futures spreads, spot OTC basis and options.

OKX
Chief Commercial Officer Lennix Lai said: „The latest futures spread
volume figures confirm that OKX Liquid Marketplace is a diverse ecosystem of
counterparties pursuing a range of trading strategies and indicates that it is
a trading venue of choice for institutional traders. We have worked hard to
develop the products, liquidity and intuitive trading features traders demand
in an intensely competitive market environment. We will continue to listen to
our traders and adapt the platform to their needs going forward to further grow
our customer base.“

Since
its launch in July 2023, OKX announced on October 6 that Nitro Spreads has
surpassed a cumulative trading volume of over 2 billion USDT.

Nitro
Spreads is a venue for institutional traders to execute advanced strategies and
facilitate delta rolls efficiently on OKX’s Liquid Marketplace. With the
ability to execute both legs of a trade via a central orderbook, Nitro Spreads
minimizes leg risk between markets and provides institutional traders with
enhanced capital efficiency. Before execution, traders can also select a
guaranteed spread for a trade, mitigating unexpected price slippage. Trades are
then matched and settled immediately.

About
OKX

OKX is a
leading global crypto exchange and innovative Web3 company. Trusted by more
than 50 million global users, OKX is known for being the fastest and most
reliable crypto trading app for traders everywhere.

As a top
partner of English Premier League champions Manchester City FC, McLaren Formula
1, Olympian Scotty James, and F1 driver Daniel Ricciardo, OKX aims to
supercharge the fan experience with new engagement opportunities. OKX is also
the top partner of the Tribeca Festival as part of an initiative to bring more
creators into web3.

The OKX
Wallet is the platform’s latest offering for people looking to explore the
world of NFTs and the metaverse while trading GameFi and DeFi tokens.

OKX is
committed to transparency and security and publishes its Proof of Reserves on a
monthly basis.

To learn
more about OKX, download our app or visit: okx.com

Disclaimer: This
announcement is provided for informational purposes only. It is not intended to
provide any investment, tax, or legal advice, nor should it be considered an
offer to purchase, sell, hold or offer any services relating to digital assets.
Digital assets, including stablecoins, involve a high degree of risk, can
fluctuate greatly, and can even become worthless. Leveraged trading in digital
assets magnifies both potential gains and potential losses and could result in
the loss of your entire investment. Past performance is not indicative of
future results. You should carefully consider whether trading or holding
digital assets is suitable for you in light of your financial condition,
particularly if considering the use of leverage.You are solely responsible for
your trading strategies and decisions, and OKX is not responsible for any
potential losses. Not all products and promotions are available in all regions
including the U.S.A., U.K., Crimea, Cuba, Donetsk, Iran, Luhansk, North Korea,
Syria Malta, Australia, Bangladesh, Bolivia, The Bahamas, Canada, Malaysia,
Hong Kong, France, and Singapore. For more details, please refer to the OKX
Terms of Use and Risk & Compliance Disclosure.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

One of Us, the
trailblazing platform that supports football talents to become stars, is
excited to unveil the launch of its branded coin with XDB CHAIN, the Blockchain
for Brands.

This
launch marks a key milestone for One of Us and its incredible community of
talents and fans as it embarks on a transformative journey to enable
web3-powered interactions. The overarching mission is to redefine the paradigm
of talent discovery and management within the football industry through the
remarkable power of blockchain technology. The visionary approach of One of Us
aspires to usher in an era of amplified participation from the global football
community during the talent discovery phase, promising unparalleled rewards.
Therefore, every football aficionado worldwide can now assume the mantle of a
talent scout, nurturing the potential of future football stars.

This
exhilarating odyssey promises to enthrall millions of vibrant fans and
thousands of prodigious players spanning the globe. This coin grants the owner
exclusive access to the platform asset’s rights and it is ingeniously fashioned
with a „reward model“. This model confers tangible real-world
advantages upon players through the medium of the token itself.

To give
a broader context the extraordinary potential of this initiative, let’s take
for example Gabriele Natale, the most recent One of Us winner, who now proudly
joins the colors of the FC Genoa football team. The One of Us coin unlocks
exclusive rewards and benefits connected to the success of the One of Us
platform and its talents, like Gabriele Natale. Stay tuned for a cascade of
forthcoming announcements, featuring an illustrious roster of retail partners,
including major football clubs, converging within the dynamic of One of Us
ecosystem.

XDB
CHAIN, the Blockchain for Brands, boasts a thriving community that has
surpassed the remarkable milestone of 100,000 dedicated members and has lately
introduced the launch of multiple BCOs, namely branded coins, fostering a
growing ecosystem of brands and users. With over 70,000 subscribers already
rallying under the One of Us banner, the seamless integration of XDB CHAIN’s
web3 wallet promises to usher in an era of swift mass adoption and vibrant
community engagement, targeting millions of users worldwide.

Daniele
Mensi, CEO of XDB FOUNDATION: „I am eagerly looking forward to witnessing the
fruits of last month’s work to position XDB CHAIN within the football industry.
I am confident One Of Us community and Partners hold limitless promise for both
football and blockchain worldwide”Diego Donati CEO of F ONE – One Of Us: “We
are thrilled to launch together with XDB CHAIN an innovative tool that allows
fans to help the growth of new talents in football’s world, allowing everyone
to believe in both „underdog“ athletes discovered by One Of Us and
selected professionals while enjoying unique rewards. We believe that this
collaboration puts the opportunity in the hands of football fans to make a
significant impact in the football industry.”

This
historic launch stands as a beacon at the confluence of the football and
blockchain realms, heralding an epoch of boundless possibilities and
unparalleled rewards to those contributing to the success.

About
XDB CHAIN

As XDB CHAIN (https://digitalbits.io/), the entire project and
its community stand poised to propel the blockchain industry into a new era to
embrace novel use cases, nurture collaborative communities, and boldly push the
boundaries of what technology can achieve. This is just an invitation to join
XDB CHAIN on this journey into the future of Blockchain for Brands empowering
The Consumers of Tomorrow.

About
One Of Us

ONE OF US is a
soccer-focused community and app that reaches out to the world of amateur and
amateur athletes, designed for those who dream of becoming a footballer in the
professional world. Our mission is to become the social elevator of the
football world by offering, thanks to technology accessible to all,
guaranteeing every year the chance to sign at least one contract as a
professional footballer, rewarding talent regardless of gender, age, economic
and social condition.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

Headlines:

• Gold ratchets higher, seeks break of key technical levels
• US president Biden arrives in Israel
• Biden: US will make sure Israel has what it needs to defend itself
• OPEC+ not planning extraordinary meeting after Iran calls for Israel oil embargo – report
• Xi-Putin meeting: Close political coordination is necessary in current difficult times
• Fed’s Harker: Pause on rate hikes should be extended
• ECB’s Visco: Inflation not yet consistent with monetary, price stability
• UK September CPI +6.7% vs +6.6% y/y expected
• Eurozone September final CPI +4.3% vs +4.3% y/y prelim
• US MBA mortgage applications w.e. 13 October -6.9% vs +0.6% prior
• Japan tourism recovers to near pre-Covid levels
• Nomura revises China 2023 GDP growth forecast slightly higher
• Citi raises China 2023 GDP growth forecast to 5.3% from 5.0% previously
• UBS, Morgan Stanley join the chorus in raising China GDP growth forecast for the year

Markets:

• CHF leads, EUR lags on the day
• European equities lower; S&P 500 futures down 0.4%
• US 10-year yields down 3 bps to 4.817%
• Gold up 1.1% to $1,945.52
• WTI crude up 2.7% to $89.02
• Bitcoin down 0.2% to $28,405

The arrival of US president Biden is Israel is not really relieving tensions in the region, at least not yet, as commodities continue to respond to the heightened uncertainty. Gold is shooting higher as it climbs to a four-week high of $1,947 after a solid jump higher since Asia trading.

Oil is the other key beneficiary with WTI crude up nearly 3% on the day to $89, also building on gains since Asia trading.

But outside of the commodities space, the market moves were more measured. Equities are feeling heavy again with US futures down 0.4% while European indices are dragged down as well, not helped by ASML’s poor showing after its earnings report earlier.

That comes despite a moderation in Treasury yields, with 10-year yields nudging back down to 4.817% after hovering around 4.866% at the highs earlier in the session.

In FX, major currencies are looking more muted. The pound caught a mild bid after more signs of stubborn UK inflation, with GBP/USD moving up from 1.2185 to 1.2210 before keeping around 1.2190 levels now.

The dollar in general is steadier across the board as it trades little changed against the rest of the major currencies bloc, as sentiment is still underpinned from higher yields and a stronger US economy for the time being.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior +0.6%
• Market index 166.9 vs 179.3 prior
• Purchase index 129.8 vs 137.5 prior
• Refinance index 347.6 vs 385.8 prior
• 30-year mortgage rate 7.70% vs 7.67% prior

That’s a sharp drop in mortgage applications in the past week as the average rate of the most popular US home loan moves higher once again. Both purchases and refinancing activities declined sharply, exemplifying the ongoing subdued mood in the mortgage market.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The copper market remains
in a tight spot amid uncertainties about global growth, tensions in the Middle
East and improving activity data from China. This is leading to a
rangebound price action within a descending triangle until something big
happens triggering a breakout. Given the resilient US economic data and
improving Chinese figures we might see a rebound in prices in the short term,
but watch out for recessionary signs as tight monetary conditions and higher
energy prices might weigh even more on the global economy going forward.

Copper Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that Copper
yesterday broke through the key support zone
around the 3.55 level but bounced back soon after leaving behind a fakeout. The
buyers stepped in more aggressively and took the price into the red 21 moving average. From a
risk management perspective, the sellers will be better off waiting for the
price to come back into the downward trendline around
the 3.75 level where they will have a much better risk to reward setup.

Copper Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the break
through the support diverged with the
MACD, which
is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or
reversals. In this case, we might see a reversal back into the previous swing
high around the 3.68 level where we can find the confluence with the
minor downward trendline and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement
level.

Copper Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see more
closely the fakeout below the support zone and the strong rally afterwards.
From a risk management perspective, the buyers would be better off waiting for
the price to pull back into the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level before piling
in for another rally into the 3.68 resistance.

Upcoming Events

Tomorrow we will get the latest US Jobless Claims
report and the market will want to see if the miss in Continuing Claims last
week was just a blip or the start of a trend. Later in the day we will also
hear from Fed Chair Powell where the market will be focused on any hint about
the near-term policy outlook. Copper is likely to get under pressure if the Jobless
Claims data misses expectations by a big margin or Fed Chair Powell sounds very
hawkish.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.