As such, the calm and steadier mood we’re seeing today belies the nervousness and fragile sentiment that is prevailing currently. Here’s a snapshot so far on the day:

• Eurostoxx +0.6%
• Germany DAX +0.5%
• France CAC 40 +0.7%
• UK FTSE +0.4%
• S&P 500 futures +0.2%
• Nasdaq futures +0.1%
• Dow futures +0.3%

After being burned by the Nvidia hopium yesterday, tech stocks are the ones that are less enthused so far today. And after the ugly reversal, the S&P 500 has pretty much erased gains for the week although the Nasdaq is still up a little over 1%. The Dow is the laggard as it is now down over 1% on the week coming into today.

In any case, just be wary that the pessimism can quickly accelerate in US trading as we have seen time and time again in the past two weeks. So far, broader markets are also calmer on the day as such. But if we are to lean to being more risk averse again, the dollar is likely to shine before the weekend comes along.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

US:

• The Fed hiked by 25 bps as
  expected and kept everything unchanged.
• Fed Chair Powell reaffirmed their data dependency
  and kept all the options on the table.
• The US economic data keeps on surprising to the
  upside, but inflation expectations and CPI readings continue to show
  disinflation with the last two Core CPI M/M figures
  coming in at 0.16%.
• The US PMIs missed
  expectations across the board and brought down Treasury yields weakening the US
  Dollar, but the US Jobless Claims came out
  better than expected once again and supported the USD.
• At the moment, the market doesn’t expect another
  hike from the Fed, but the next NFP and CPI data will be crucial to confirm or
  change this view.

New Zealand:

• The RBNZ kept its official cash rate unchanged while
  stating that it will remain at the restrictive level for the foreseeable future
  to ensure that inflation comes down back to target.
• The recent New Zealand inflation and employment data surprised to the upside but
  the PMIs are in contraction with the Services PMI last week plunging into
  contraction.
• The wage growth has also missed
  expectations and it’s something that the central banks are watching closely for
  second round effects.
• The New Zealand Retail Sales beat expectations although remain
  deeply negative.
• The RBNZ is expected to keep the
  cash rate steady at the next meeting.

NZDUSD Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that after breaking
the May low and falling into the 0.59 handle, NZDUSD rallied back to retest the
broken support now turned resistance before
restarting the downtrend. The sellers are firmly in control and the breakout
opened the door for a fall into the 0.5514 level.

NZDUSD Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price has
been diverging with the
MACD for a
while. This is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by
pullbacks or reversals. In this case, we got the pullback into the trendline where we
had also the confluence with the
38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
This is where the sellers piled in with a defined risk above the level to
target new lows. The buyers will need the price to break above the trendline to
switch the bias from bearish to bullish and start targeting new higher highs.

NZDUSD Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that the
price is bouncing from the previous low. A good resistance for the sellers
might be the one around the 0.5925 level where the price has reacted to
multiple times and where we can also find the red 21 moving average for
confluence. More conservative sellers may want to wait for the price to break
below the recent low to pile in and target new lows.

Upcoming Events

Today the only major
event is Fed Chair Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium. The
expectations though are for him to take a “wait and see” approach as we have
more key economic data ahead before the next FOMC meeting.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

Man, oh man! As someone who’s watched the NBA for decades, I’ve had my fair share of debates. The typical ‚Kobe or Mike?‘ or ‚LeBron or Mike?‘ – and every single time, I’ve said, „MJ all the way!“. And now, just to add a little more icing on the cake, Mike is now officially the richest baller to ever grace the courts. Talk about being the GOAT in basketball and in business! 💰🏀

And if we’re talking about the greatest sport person ever alive, we gotts show some of his moves as we talk about how much dough he made…

From barely having two nickels to rub together in his childhood to touching a staggering net worth of $3.5 billion, MJ’s story is the epitome of the American dream. Ain’t just about the dunks; it’s about those dollar signs, baby! Thanks, Bloomberg Billionaires Index, for the heads up!

Here’s a quick snapshot of the journey:

• Rough Childhood: Growing up wasn’t all glitz and glam. MJ faced financial hardships but never let it define him.
• Player’s Paycheck: He raked in over $94 million during his NBA career alone. And, oh boy, every cent was earned with those mesmerizing moves on the court!
• The Endorsement Era: MJ’s name was GOLD. Collaborations with giants like Nike, Coca-Cola, and McDonald’s? Hundreds of millions right there!
• Charlotte Hornets: Not just a player, MJ’s the boss too! His major stake in the Charlotte Hornets? Well, that’s a billion-dollar ball game.
• Businessman Mike: Restaurant chains, golf courses… you name it, MJ’s got a piece of it. Million-dollar ventures that keep on giving.

And if you’re thinking this is where the story ends, think again. MJ’s still pretty young in the grand scheme of things. With his knack for business and those clever investments, there’s no cap to his wealth. The sky’s the limit!

You know, it’s not just about the money. It’s about resilience, vision, and the will to be the best. Mike’s life is a testament to the saying, “Where there’s a will, there’s a way.” If MJ’s story doesn’t light a fire in you, I don’t know what will. To the kid from Wilmington who became a global icon: You’re an inspiration, Mike! 🐐🏆💰

BTW, here are the richest athletes in the world…

This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.

The
selloff that started at the beginning of August is starting to show signs of
weakness. Although nothing changed fundamentally, the Nasdaq Composite started
to rise as the market was just probably overstretched. This looks more like a
pullback as the miss in yesterday’s US PMIs doesn’t
support the bullish case.

Nasdaq Composite Technical
Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that the Nasdaq
Composite bounced from a key support level at
13174 and rallied back strongly into the broken trendline and the
red 21 moving average. This is
where we can expect the sellers to pile in with a defined risk above the
trendline to target a break below the 13174 support.

Nasdaq Composite Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see more closely the
strong bounce on the 13174 support and the strong resistance that we have
around the 13820 level where we can also find the confluence with the
Fibonacci retracement levels
and the previous support now turned resistance.

Nasdaq Composite Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see the
resistance zone with the market likely to open today around those levels as
Nvidia yesterday after the close crushed expectations across the board. So, at
the open we might see a “sell the fact” but more conservative sellers may want
to wait for the price to fall below the black counter-trendline first before
positioning for more downside.

Upcoming
Events

Today we will have the latest US Jobless Claims
report where the market will want to see if the labour market is still holding
or starting to weaken. Strong data may cause some hawkish repricing in
expectations and it’s unclear if the market will take it as good news because
of the resilient labour market or bad news because the Fed will keep at it.
Weak data should be more straight forward as it’s likely to cause recessionary
fears given the yesterday’s PMIs and send the market lower. Tomorrow we will
hear from Fed Chair Powell who is set to speak at the Jackson Hole Symposium,
although the expectations are for him to just repeat their data dependency and
keep all the options on the table.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

Headlines:

• Mixed flows so far in European morning trade
• Aussie finds it tough to build on recent bounce
• US data in focus later today
• France August business confidence 99 vs 100 prior
• UK August retailing reported sales -44 vs -25 prior
• China announces suspension of all aquatic products from Japan
• Australian bank CEO says Australia unlikely to enter recession, housing market holding up

Markets:

• USD leads, NZD lags on the day
• European equities higher; S&P 500 futures up 0.6%
• US 10-year yields up 1.6 bps to 4.213%
• Gold up 0.2% to $1,917.66
• WTI crude up 0.2% to $79.07
• Bitcoin down 0.3% to $26,509

It was a quiet session for the most part but there were some decent albeit mixed flows in markets today.

Equities are buoyed since Asia trading, after Nvidia’s earnings beat helped to boost sentiment. US futures are holding higher, led by tech shares, with Nasdaq futures up by 1.1% and S&P 500 futures up by 0.6%. However, Dow futures are slightly lower now and down by 0.1% so perhaps not everything is bright and rosy in the equities space.

The less enthusiastic mood is also shared by the antipodean currencies today with both the aussie and kiwi keeping lower. Both were initially little changed against the dollar but AUD/USD is now down 0.5% to 0.6445 and NZD/USD down 0.7% to 0.5940 at the lows for the day.

The dollar is overall keeping steadier, with USD/JPY holding higher by 0.5% to 145.50 levels again as Treasury yields nudge a little higher. 10-year yields were down to around 4.18% earlier but have now recovered to around 4.21% on the day.

Besides that, the euro is little changed against the dollar while cable is down 0.4% to 1.2670 as the pound struggles to maintain yesterday’s rebound.

The thing to watch now is to see if tech shares can hold their head above water later today, with US weekly jobless claims coming up as well. If not, we might be set for a bit of an uglier end to the week if stock investors truly do go with the buy the rumour, sell the fact play after Nvidia.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

US:

• The Fed hiked by 25 bps as
  expected and kept everything unchanged.
• Fed Chair Powell reaffirmed their data dependency
  and kept all the options on the table.
• The US economic data keeps on surprising to the
  upside, but inflation expectations and CPI readings continue to show
  disinflation with the last two Core CPI M/M figures
  coming in at 0.16%.
• The US PMIs
  yesterday missed expectations across the board and brought down Treasury yields
  weakening the US Dollar.
• At the moment, the market doesn’t expect another
  hike from the Fed, but the next NFP and CPI data will be crucial to confirm or
  change this view.

EU:

• The ECB hiked by 25 bps and
  changed a line in the statement that leant more on the dovish side.
• President Lagarde didn’t hint to what we can expect
  next and, in line with the Fed, just reaffirmed their data dependency and kept
  all the options on the table.
• The data for the Eurozone has been consistently
  missing expectations, but the recent inflation and employment reports
  remained strong.
• The Eurozone PMIs missed
  expectations across the board with the Services sector plunging in contraction.
• The market is now expecting the ECB to remain on
  hold in September.

EURUSD Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that the EURUSD
selloff is losing momentum although the bias remains bearish given the lower
lows and lower highs and the moving averages being
crossed to the downside. We can see that the price is currently bouncing on a
previous swing low level and we might see a bigger pullback into the downward trendline where we
will also find the red 21 moving average for confluence.

EURUSD Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price has
been diverging with the
MACD for a
while. This is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by
pullbacks or reversals. In this case, we might see the price pulling back into
the trendline where we can also find the Fibonacci retracement levels
for confluence. This is where the sellers are likely to pile in with a defined
risk above the trendline and target a break below the 1.08 handle. The buyers,
on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking above the trendline to
confirm the reversal and target new highs.

EURUSD Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we
have a minor resistance zone around the 1.0875 level that should act as a
barometer for the sentiment. In fact, a break above it should give the buyers
more room to extend the rally into the trendline. Vice versa, as long as the
price stays below the level we should see the sellers piling in at every
pullback.

Upcoming Events

Today we have the US
Jobless Claims, and the market will want to see if the labour market remains
strong or starts to show signs of weakness. Strong readings should keep the
hawkish expectations steady and support the US Dollar, while weak data should see
a weaker greenback in the short term as the market would lean even more on the
dovish side. Tomorrow we will hear from Fed Chair Powell who is expected to
just repeat their data dependency and keep all the options on the table.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

It is a bit of a head scratcher considering the more positive mood in equities so far today. The only thing I can point to is lower commodity prices in which we are seeing iron ore prices fall slightly after the recent rally. That said, I reckon traders engaging in shorts are also seeing the bounce this week as an opportunity to add to their position.

I mean, not withstanding, the same factors that have driven the aussie lower since the middle of last month are very much still holding true today as well. And if you consider China’s struggles and a worsening global economy, that’s no good reason to suddenly turn to bullish bets on the aussie – especially when rate differentials are in favour of the dollar as well.

For AUD/USD, buyers will need to climb back above 0.6500 to at least have some form of confidence back. Otherwise, sellers have a key area to lean on to keep the downside momentum going.

For now, sellers will look to try and retest the 100 and 200-hour moving averages at 0.6427-38 again to try and regain some near-term control while buyers will look to defend that in order to maintain some hope on the recent bounce.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

This is not a good look as UK retail sales is seen falling in August at its quickest pace since March 2021. Adding to the misery is that retail stores continue to see a tough time in the month ahead, with the expectations reading still deeply negative at -21 (although an improvement to the -32 reading last month). The quarterly business situation balance also falls to its lowest this year at -14 now, down from +6 in May.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Headlines:

• Germany August flash services PMI 47.3 vs 51.5 expected
• France August flash services PMI 46.7 vs 47.5 expected
• Eurozone August flash services PMI 48.3 vs 50.5 expected
• UK August flash services PMI 48.7 vs 51.0 expected
• Bond yields slump as ECB rate hike bets ease after PMI data
• EUR/USD on the brink as PMI data weighs on the euro
• Sterling’s turn to feel the PMI heat
• Equities pare early gains, Nvidia earnings still the one to watch

Markets:

• JPY leads, GBP lags on the day
• European equities mixed; S&P 500 futures up 0.16%
• US 10-year yields down 6.9 bps to 4.258%
• Gold up 0.4% to $1,904.34
• WTI crude down 1.4% to $78.51
• Bitcoin up 0.3% to $25,926

It was all about the PMI data releases in Europe today and there were some nasty downside surprises to the German and UK readings.

That led to selling in both the euro and pound, while the dollar kept steadier alongside the yen as bond yields also sank on the session. The poor readings were largely from the services sector, highlighting that the European economies are struggling hard in the summer and joining the manufacturing sector in contracting.

Traders pared ECB rate hike bets for September to roughly 50% while toning down their hawkish expectations on the BOE rates peak further away from 6%.

EUR/USD was hovering around 1.0860 earlier on but fell to 1.0805 and is keeping just above the crucial 1.0800 level with the 200-day moving average at 1.0797 and large option expiries at the figure level today providing some layer of defense – for now at least.

GBP/USD was arguably the bigger loser, falling from 1.2750 earlier in the day all the way down to 1.2630 levels now and testing its 100-day moving average at 1.2635.

USD/JPY kept lower throughout, with the fall in bond yields helping things along. The pair was hovering around 145.60 earlier on but is now near the lows for the day around 145.25 currently.

In other markets, oil is also down over 1% on worries about a further economic slowdown globally. Meanwhile, equities were initially turning a blind eye to the PMI data but have now seen gains pared ahead of US trading, with all eyes on the Nvidia earnings to come. Is it a case of buy the rumour, sell the fact this week?

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

European indices have pared their earlier gains as US futures also pull back from the highs earlier. At first, it seemed like the awful PMI data in Europe would have no impact on equities but we are starting to see some nerves creep up again now. Here’s a snapshot of things:

• Eurostoxx -0.1%
• Germany DAX flat
• France CAC 40 -0.1%
• UK FTSE +0.6%
• S&P 500 futures +0.16%
• Nasdaq futures +0.14%
• Dow futures +0.15%

Only the UK FTSE is the outlier in the list above as it is benefitting from a softer pound, whereby we are seeing cable run down by 0.7% to test its 100-day moving average at 1.2635 currently.

Going back to equities, it’s going to be a tough battle today as the anticipation continues ahead of the Nvidia earnings – which will come after market close. It has arguably been the key driver helping to drive the dip buying this week and we shall see if buyers will be vindicated as such.

Otherwise, I fear that if tech stocks can’t carry their weight in the aftermath, it could lead to yet another rough week for equities after having already been offered strongly so far in August.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.