The USDCHF sellers had their shot on Friday on the break of the 200-hour MA, but could not sustain momentum. The better US jobs report started the wheels in motion for a move back to the upside. That took the price back above the 200 and 100-hour MAs in the process (at 0.90564 and 0.90718 respectively).

However, there is also key upside target resistance at 100-day MA and the 50% retracement of the 2023 trading range both at 0.9126. That level will be targeted next week and would need to be broken and stay broken, if the buyers are to take more control.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The key move technically in the USDCAD last week, was the move back below the 100 and 200 day MAs. That tilted the bias more to the downside for the pair from a technical perspective.

The other thing of note from the daily chart is the convergence of the 100/200-day MAs. That is indicative of a non-trending longer-term market which could be a clue for a break outside of the range… soon. Non-trend transitions to trend.

The video will outline the levels that would keep the bearish bias and potentially lead to a break outside the up and down trading range in the USDCAD pair.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

• US May non-farm payrolls +339K vs +190K expected
• Fitch says will resolve US negative ratings watch in Q3
• Timiraos: Non-farm payrolls won’t resolve Fed rate scenarios
• OPEC+ is considering an additional output cut of around 1 mbpd – report
• OPEC will debate additional cut among possible options – report
• Iraq oil minister: We will not hesitate to take any decision to create more balance
• Baker Hughes oil rig counts fall -15 to 555 in the current week

Markets:

• Gold down $29 to $1948
• WTI crude oil daily +$1.85 to $71.93
• S&P 500 up 62 points to 4289
• US 10-year yields up 8.3 bps to 3.69%
• US 2-year yields up 16 bps to 4.50%
• AUD leads, JPY lags

Non-farm payrolls beat the consensus estimate for an unprecedented 14th time and it beat it in a big way but

Non-farm payrolls beat the consensus estimate for an unprecedented 14th time and it beat it in a big way but the details told a different story and capped the dollar gains, at least initially. The unemployment rate jumped to 3.7% from 3.4%, wage growth was modest and the household survey showed a large drop in employment, particularly self-employment.

Initially, the dollar gave back almost all its gains but a second dollar bid arrived later as yields rose. Front end yields led the rise and my guess is that represents a dwindling possibility of a Fed overtightening error and a higher possibility of a soft landing.

For months now, the bond market hasn’t been concerned about inflation and has instead been pricing rates and growth. With the Fed set to skip a meeting and perhaps pause, there’s less of a chance of a yo-yo in policy where they hike too high and are forced to quickly cut.
Or at least that’s one way of looking at a market that’s been tough to explain over the turn of the month.

Dollar buying accelerated in the final hours of European trading with the euro, pound and yen falling hard.
The commodity currencies kept pace with the US dollar as stocks – and value stocks in particular – jumped.

Again, that could be an indication that markets are pricing in better global growth outcomes and along with that was the earlier report that China was planning some targeted real estate stimulus. Before NFP, the market was hesitant to react to that report. For me, the details (like cutting real estate commissions) are underwhelming but at least they show that Beijing is paying attention to its disappointing economy.

Later in the day, the loonie found some bids alongside oil as some OPEC reports about the possibility of a 1 mbpd cut on Sunday did the rounds. The market reaction in oil was tepid to those headlines and that shows it’s at least partly priced in already.

Have a great weekend.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

It was time for the laggard indices to take control today. Both the Dow industrial average and the Russell 2000 of small-cap stocks outperformed the NASDAQ which is been the big outperformer in 2023.

The final numbers for the day are showing:

• Dow industrial average rose 797 points or 2.12% at 33762.59. That was the strongest percentage gain since January 6 when that index rose 2.13%
• S&P index rose 61.34 points or 1.45% at 4282.35. The S&P is closing the 2nd week in a row above its 100-week moving average (at 4199.50). The gain today was the largest sense May 5.Bullish.
• NASDAQ index rose 139.77 points or 1.07% at 13240.76. The low price this week in the NASDAQ stalled right against its 100-week moving average at 12889.20. The high price and close extended above the fit percent midpoint of the move down from the all-time high in 2022 at 13150.53. Bullish.
• Russell 2000 index of small-cap stocks surged 62.96 points or 3.56% to 1830.905. That gain was the largest since November 10, 2022 when the index soared by 6.108%

Year to date, the Russell 2000 and Dow Industrial Average have lagged the other broader and tech heavy indices. For the 2023 trading year

• Dow Jones industrial average is up 1.86%
• S&P index is up 11.54%
• NASDAQ index is up 26.51%
• Russell 2000 is up 3.95%

For the trading week, the snapshot shows:

• Dow Jones industrial average up 2.02%
• S&P index up 1.83%
• Nasdaq up 2.04% and up for the 6th consecutive week.
• Russell 2000 up 3.26%

A good day for all US indices and a good week as well.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

On the
daily chart below, we can see that the big bullish wave in USDJPY stalled a few
days ago as we reached peak hawkishness and then got an unwind due to some Fed members hinting to a pause in
June. The bias remains bullish though as the price would need to break below
the upward trendline to change the trend and make the moving average to cross
downwards. Right now, we can see that USDJPY is approaching a nice support
level at 138.16 where we can also find the red 21 moving average.

USDJPY Technical
Analysis

On the 4
hour chart below, we can see that the price was already signalling weakness in
the bullish momentum as the price started to diverge with the
MACD into the
140 handle. Once we got the breakout of the rising channel and the moving
averages crossed to the downside, USDJPY just kept on falling also helped by yesterday’s
softness in the ISM Manufacturing PMI and Unit Labour Cost reports.

The
buyers are likely to lean on the 138.16 support where we can find the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
However, if we get a break to the downside and the price falls more, we will
have an even stronger support near the 137 handle where we have the confluence of the
trendline and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.

On the 1
hour chart below, we can see that the short-term trend is bearish as we are
making lower lows and lower highs. As long as USDJPY doesn’t break above the
downward trendline, the bearish trend remains intact. So, as highlighted
before, we have 3 different entry opportunities for the buyers:

• More
  aggressive buyers should lean on the 138.16 support and the
  38.2% Fibonacci retracement level with a defined risk just below it.
• If this
  support fails, they can try again at the upward trendline and the
  61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
• More
  conservative buyers, may want to wait for the price breaking above the downward
  trendline to join the bullish wave and target the 142 handle.

The
sellers, on the other hand, are likely to pile in at every breakout:

• If the
  price breaks below the 138.16 support, the sellers will jump onboard to ride
  the selloff into the trendline.
• On a
  break below the upward trendline, the sellers will pile in more aggressively as
  the trend is likely to change at that point and the target will be the 127.20
  low.

The spotlight today will be
on the US NFP report, with various potential scenarios that could unfold:

• If
  the data surpasses expectations, along with higher-than-anticipated average
  hourly earnings, it is likely to increase the chances of a rate hike in June
  and perhaps even price in some probability of a rate hike in July. This
  particular scenario may raise concerns within the market regarding a possible wage
  price spiral.
• Conversely,
  if the data is positive but falls short of expectations in terms of average
  hourly earnings, it is expected to further weaken the USD, as it would not have
  a significant impact on rate expectations and could even trigger soft landing
  vibes.
• If
  the data falls short of expectations across the board, it will be viewed as
  negative news and could potentially induce risk aversion in the markets,
  leading to lower Treasury yields and more bids in JPY. Moreover, based on
  recent comments from Fed officials, we might witness the USD weakening also due
  to diminished expectations of future interest rate hikes.

This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.

Fed funds futures are showing roughly 71% odds of the central bank not hiking rates in June now. Mind you, it was roughly 70% in favour of a rate hike at the start of the week. That’s a complete U-turn in terms of pricing as Fed policymakers delivered a somewhat coordinated message that they might very well „skip“ a rate hike this month.

And when you consider the balance of the situation now, the risks seem to be favouring further downside for the dollar rather than any major upside as we head into the US jobs report later today.

In the event that the numbers are strong and we get a solid report, it just once again reaffirms that labour market conditions are holding up well. That doesn’t really take away from the messaging that policymakers might „skip“ a 25 bps move in two weeks‘ time.

In case there is some reason that the labour market is running extremely hot, perhaps we might see some last-minute message by Fed speakers before the blackout period tomorrow. But barring any major surprise, the data should just reaffirm that things are solid and the Fed already knows that by now.

So, to deliver a message as they did in the past two days, does say a lot about what the line of thinking is. Of course, we could see other policymakers besides Harker come out to provide a rebuttal later today but then that will come after the jobs data.

Going back to the report, if there is going to be a downside miss on the numbers and wage pressures ease, that will likely pile on the misery for the dollar. If policymakers are now talking about a „skip“, such data might even turn that into talk of a „pause“.

In other words, it’s all about measuring the strength of the Fed pivot now.

Even with a decent set of numbers, the Fed is still going to move to the sidelines and reassess the situation again in a month’s time. But if there is some shakiness in the jobs report and then softer CPI figures later this month, that could really set off some alarm bells for dollar bulls to go cowering.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

On the
daily chart below, we can see that May was a great month for the USD as the
strong economic data made the market to reprice interest rates expectations on
the more hawkish side. We even got a breakout of the March low recently, but
the sellers couldn’t sustain the momentum as they started to get big headwinds.
In fact, NZDUSD rallied in the past two days as the market started to unwind
hawkish bets due to some Fed officials
talking about a pause in June to wait for more data and decide in July.

Moreover,
yesterday’s soft data in the ISM
Manufacturing PMI and Unit
Labour Cost reports supported the idea of a pause in June. If the next set
of data doesn’t surprise to the upside, then we should see NZDUSD rallying all
the way towards the 0.6181 level where we can find confluence
from the trendline,
the 61.8% Fibonacci
retracement level and the red 21 moving
average.

NZDUSD Technical
Analysis

On the 4
hour chart below, we can see that we had already some signals of a weakening
bearish momentum from the price divergence
with the MACD.
Sure enough, we got a pullback, that may even become a reversal if the data
starts to disappoint.

The
buyers’ target is of course the 0.6181 resistance
and the cross to the upside of the moving averages is currently supporting the
idea of another wave of buying pressure to come. If NZDUSD reaches the 0.6181
resistance, we can expect the sellers leaning on that level with a defined risk
just above the resistance to target a break below the 0.5985 low.

On the 1
hour chart below, we can see that we have a bullish structure at the moment
with the last higher low standing at the 0.6058 level. This zone between the
0.6058 and 0.6084 coupled with the red 21 moving average will be the buying
area for the buyers with a stop just below it. The sellers, on the other hand,
will want to see the price to break through that zone to pile in and extend the
selloff into the 0.5985 low first and the 0.5820 level next.

Today, the attention will
be on the NFP report, and there are several potential outcomes to consider:

• If
  the data surpasses expectations, accompanied by higher-than-anticipated average
  hourly earnings, it is likely to increase the likelihood of a rate hike in June
  and potentially even signal the possibility of a rate hike in July. Such a
  scenario could raise concerns in the market regarding a potential escalation of
  wages and prices.
• On
  the other hand, if the data is positive but falls short of expectations in
  terms of average hourly earnings, it is expected to exert further downward
  pressure on the USD, as it would not significantly affect rate expectations. In
  this case, market participants will eagerly await the forthcoming CPI report,
  scheduled for next week.
• Should
  the data disappoint across all aspects, it will be regarded as negative news
  and could potentially prompt risk aversion in the markets, leading to an
  increased demand for the USD. However, given recent remarks made by Federal
  Reserve officials, we might witness a weakening of the USD due to reduced
  expectations surrounding future interest rate hikes.

This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.

• SNB ready to be active in forex markets to ensure appropriate monetary conditions
• Inflationary pressure is broadening
• Cannot sound the all clear on inflation despite recent dips in the data

With the ECB still on the tightening path, the SNB is also maintaining its approach for the time being. The next policy decision for the Swiss central bank will be on 22 June, so mark that down on your calendars.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Likely to see another rate hike at the next meeting
• Inflation fall is very welcome but not definitive
• Underlying pressures are still quite strong

He also says that they have not yet reached the moment where they can put a stop to rate hikes just yet. Once again, it’s a relatively consistent message all around from the ECB so far this week.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Headlines:

• ECB’s Lagarde: We need to continue with rate hikes
• ECB’s Rehn: Core inflation must slow before mulling easing
• ECB’s Kazaks: It is hard to say where interest rates will peak
• ECB’s de Guindos: Recent inflation data are positive but still far from target
• ECB accounts: A number of members initially expressed preference for 50 bps rate hike
• Eurozone May preliminary CPI +6.1% vs +6.3% y/y expected
• Eurozone May final manufacturing PMI 44.8 vs 44.6 prelim
• Eurozone April unemployment rate 6.5% vs 6.5% expected
• Germany April retail sales +0.8% vs +1.0% m/m expected
• UK May final manufacturing PMI 47.1 vs 46.9 prelim
• UK April mortgage approvals 48.69k vs 53.00k expected
• UK May Nationwide house prices -0.1% vs +0.1% m/m expected
• Switzerland April trade balance CHF 2.60 billion vs CHF 4.53 billion prior
• US May Challenger layoffs 80.09k vs 66.99k prior
• OPEC+ not likely to deepen supply cuts at 4 June meeting – sources

Markets:

• AUD leads, JPY lags on the day
• European equities higher; S&P 500 futures up 0.2%
• US 10-year yields up 1.9 bps to 3.656%
• Gold up 0.3% to $1,967.55
• WTI crude down 0.5% to $67.74
• Bitcoin down 0.8% to $26,894

There was plenty of data to scour through during the session but the most notable one is that euro area inflation is perhaps starting to show signs of slowing down. Both the headline and core annual inflation eased in May, providing a welcome relief to the ECB and for the economic outlook.

ECB policymakers were also quick to provide a couple of timely messages and a reminder to markets, that their job is not done yet despite the more optimistic data this week.

The euro was little changed on the news though, as a lot of this has been predicated by the individual country readings earlier this week.

Instead, it was more the case of the dollar faltering after a brighter start to the session. The greenback advanced early on but gave up gains and turned lower in European trading today.

EUR/USD fell to 1.0665 earlier but has clawed its way back up above 1.0700, with large option expiries also perhaps playing a role on the day. GBP/USD also dipped towards 1.2400 but has seen quite a modest turnaround to 1.2480 as buyers look to try and test the 1.2500 mark again.

Then, we saw USD/JPY rose to 139.95 during the tail end of Asia trading as higher bond yields helped to underpin the pair. However, as the dollar reversed, so did the upside momentum as the pair is seen falling back to 139.45 at the moment.

The antipodeans are arguably the ones that are finding the most relief from the dollar U-turn today, with AUD/USD having briefly fallen to 0.6485 before coming back up to 0.6520 levels now. Meanwhile, NZD/USD also tested waters below 0.6000 before coming back up to 0.6020 currently. Both pairs are seen holding the line at key support at 0.6500 and 0.6000 respectively.

It’s now over to US ADP data to see where that leads us next and how that will impact expectations ahead of the main event tomorrow.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.