<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Citi last week said that UK inflation was set to peak at 18.6% in January and now we are seeing Goldman Sachs top that estimate, as the firm argues that we may see inflation spiral to over 20% early next year in the UK.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>“In a scenario where gas prices remain elevated at current levels, we would expect the price cap to increase by over 80% in January (vs 19% assumed in our baseline). This would imply headline inflation peaking at 22.4%, well above our baseline forecast of 14.8%.“</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The firm also says that they expect a recession to begin in Q4 this year, with the economy set to contract by 0.6% next year. As for the BOE outlook, they see policymakers raising the bank rate by 50 bps to 2.25% next month but notes that there are upside risks to its forecasts for additional 25 bps rate hikes in subsequent meetings.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>At the lows today earlier in the session, it looked like AUD/USD was poised for a firm break to the downside but now we’re seeing a recheck of the technicals as dollar gains ease slightly. The pair is still down 0.4% to 0.6865 but is at least keeping just above the 38.2 Fib retracement level at 0.6855 for the time being.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>For sellers, a firm daily close below that will be much needed to establish the next downside leg in the pair. They are still in the hunt amid the prevailing trading sentiment but there’s still no breakthrough yet.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>After Fed chair Powell reaffirmed the central bank’s resolve in fighting inflation, there isn’t much else for traders to work with to start the new week. The continuation of the Friday theme is the ongoing narrative and we might get just a bit more of that before markets start to reassess things again ahead of the US jobs report at the end of this week.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>As such, the technicals will play a vital role in dictating the pace of any moves at the moment. For now, the dollar is in command but besides a clear momentum break in cable, there are still key technical levels in play for other pairs as seen above with AUD/USD as well.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p class=“MsoNormal“>I am
sure that one of the main skills that a trader should acquire is the ability to
make decisions out of Meta Position. But what is it?</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>The
term Meta Position is widely used in NLP and means not just a “neutral” and
detached position but more like integrated one. A person takes up this position
when they grow over their polarities and starts a new level of development. Out
of this state of mind, a person can easily make fresh and adequate decisions.
However, Meta Position in the understanding of NLP and psychotherapy needs a
long way to reach, while I think that each trader can from time-to-time return
to a holistic, integrated state of mind. To make terms clear, I will later on
call this “observer state”.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>if you
are just taking your first steps in trading, then I advise you to read the
article about <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://blog.roboforex.com/blog/2020/10/22/how-to-become-a-successful-trader-10-clues/?utm_source=forexlive.com&utm_medium=pr&utm_campaign=rf_en_external_article&utm_content=article&utm_term=meta_position&a=ohrb“ target=“_blank“>how to become a trader</a>.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>To put
it very simply, in trading one does not only need to watch the market but also
needs to watch themselves watching the market. We do not only manage our
capital – open and close positions, decide upon adequate investing volume; but
we also manage ourselves – set up our perception, try to acquire self-control,
etc. Some are more successful in it, some are less, and some pay little
attention to it, preferring more and more optimised trading systems.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>In my
opinion, if traders devoted at least 30% of their time spent on perfecting
their trading (creating and optimising trading systems) to the development of
their emotional intelligence, consciousness, and thinking skills, their work
would become much more efficient.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Why
would one return themselves to a neutral, detached state of mind from time to
time? If we do not do it, we risk trading with a clear bias toward our
positions and trading scenarios. This pushes our perception into tough
framework that will be hard to escape. And if we our work de-synchronises with
the market, such a nosedive will be even harder to stop.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>The
easiest way to get back to the observer state is to write down immediately all
your thoughts, feelings, and emotions into a log. Psychologists agree that
writing down a text manually, with a pen/pencil on paper if more efficient than
typing it on a PC because this way we build a better connection with our
subconscious.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Read
more on this topic in the article about <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://blog.roboforex.com/blog/2020/10/07/emotional-intelligence-what-is-it-and-why-it-is-important-for-traders/?utm_source=forexlive.com&utm_medium=pr&utm_campaign=rf_en_external_article&utm_content=article&utm_term=meta_position&a=ohrb“ target=“_blank“>emotional intelligence</a>.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>There
are several techniques that you can try. For example, you can get into the
observer state using the technique of spatial anchors. Try placing an extra
chair near your workspace; it will be an “observer chair”. Your task is to stop
being the trader for some time and turn into the observer. Such a simple thing
can be real help. Edward de Bono called such a change of mind-states a change
of “thinking hats”. He called certain states of mind “hats”: a white one for a
neutral position, a red one for concentration on emotions, etc.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Also,
you can return to a more centered state of mind using your breath and
concentration on certain points of your body. For each person, this will work
differently; however, try to hold your attention on a spot slightly below your
navel (closer to the middle of your body), and register what you feel. The main
task is to find a spot that will return you to a more balanced state of mind.
Holding your attention on certain body parts is used as a self-regulation
method in many martial arts, and traders may also use them.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>The
goal of such practices is to keep your emotions from dominating over you when
you are making decisions; dominating you neither consciously, nor
subconsciously, and let you return control to your-self. You can spend many
years in psychotherapy and psychoanalysis (increasing your emotional pain
threshold) – or you can work individually on yourself, improving your skills of
self-control and self-regulation. I think this type of practice is more
available, and even more importantly – in the process, the person takes up all
the responsibility on themselves, thus being in a more mature position in their
life. However, in certain cases, if your emotions are too intense (your pain
threshold is low), you should better address an expert.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Alternatively,
you might switch to a higher timeframe because this is the solution of
self-control issues for many traders.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>By Andrey
Goilov, Analyst at <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://roboforex.com/?utm_source=forexlive.com&utm_medium=pr&utm_campaign=rf_en_external_article&utm_content=article&utm_term=meta_position&a=ohrb“ target=“_blank“>RoboForex</a></p>

This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.

<ul><li>Natural gas is one of the most watched commodity in the financial world, these days.</li><li>Some would claim that there is some news driven hype around this asset, and it may be time to look at technical hints, such as a failed breakout above resistance and the inability, so far, to capture the $10 round number</li><li>The volume profile and the EMA20 on the daily timeframe, is guiding this short trade idea, whereby the reward vs risk, makes the trade legit, IMHO</li><li>To mitigate risk, professional traders typically scale out of trades with a number of partial profit taking and exits. I show where to consider doing that according to the technical junctions shown in the below technical analysis video for natural gas futures, applicable starting 29 August, 2022.</li></ul><p>Trade natural gas at your own risk only. Visit ForexLive.com for <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis“>technical analysis</a> on a variety of financial assets.</p>

This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.

<p class=“MsoNormal“>UPCOMING
EVENTS:</p><ul><li>Monday: Fed
Vice Chair Brainard.</li><li>Thursday: US
ISM Manufacturing PMI.</li><li>Friday: US
Labour Market Report.</li></ul><p class=“MsoNormal“>The main
event of the last week was of course Fed Chair Powell speech at the Jackson
Hole Symposium. It was a roughly ten-minute-long speech, short, clear, and
resolute. Inflation and price stability words were used extensively signalling
a unique focus on that topic alone and to achieve their goal as Powell said
they will “keep at it until the job is done”. He even mentioned that there will
be “softening in labour market conditions and some pain for households and
businesses”. The cost of bringing down inflation to target of course will
require, ironically, a high price. </p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Moreover,
Powell admitted that the bulk of inflation is demand-driven, and their tools
are meant exactly to work on the aggregate demand side, so to bring back in
balance the supply and demand, they will need to see “below trend growth”. He
also cited ex Fed Chair Paul Volcker – famous for defeating inflation of the
70s with aggressive tightening – when talking about “keeping at it”, which is
also a title of Volcker’s 2018 memoir published just before he died. In fact,
Powell said “the historical record cautions strongly against prematurely
loosening policy”, which is another reference to the 70s. </p><p class=“MsoNormal“>All in all,
Powell basically “fixed” his “mistake” at the last FOMC press conference when
his words of neutral rate unleashed a party in risk assets and a loosening in
financial conditions and this could be also confirmed from his line „In
current circumstances, with inflation running far above 2 percent and the
labour market extremely tight, estimates of longer-run neutral are not a
place to stop or pause.“</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>As a
consequence, in the forex space, the USD rallied hard. The combination of
global slowdown, aggressive Fed and the safe haven status makes the USD the
best currency for now and the trend should continue to be in its favour this
week. </p><p class=“MsoNormal“>This week
there will be two important reports: the US ISM Manufacturing PMI on Thursday
and the US Labour Market Report (NFP) on Friday. So, it’s most likely that we
will see USD strength into the second half of the week and then we may see some
USD weakness if the data misses big to the downside as the market may still try
some rally in risk as economic conditions worsen. </p><p class=“MsoNormal“>The US ISM
Manufacturing PMI is expected to come at 52.0 from the prior 52.8. Leading
indicators are pointing to further weakness in economic activity amid slowing
growth and tighter monetary conditions. The market will be more focused on the
prices paid component of course. </p><p class=“MsoNormal“>The US NFP
is expected to show an increase in payrolls of 285K. The unemployment rate is
expected to remain unchanged at 3.5%. The major focus will be on wages metrics
with average hourly earnings expected to show an increase of 0.4% for the M/M
figure and 5.3% for the Y/Y. </p><p class=“MsoNormal“>This article
was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta.</p>

This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.

<ul><li>The Jackson Hole event devastated the market on Friday, and futures even opened with a gap down.</li><li>The majoirty of market participants are fearful at this stage, which might be a time for a contrarian Long, as Nadsaq futures may be finding support at the VWAP shown.</li><li>Betting on a relief rally, even if it is short term, is legitimate since the reward vs risk makes is a fair play. Watch the stop loss and take profit targets within the following technical analysis video for Nasdaq at the start of the week, starting 29 Aug 2022</li></ul><p>Trade the Nasdaq at your own risk. Visit ForexLive.com for <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis“>technical analysis</a> on a variety of financial assets.</p>

This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.

<p>Are you one to do trades with $%&*# trade location?
If so you need to change your trading mindset and start to focus more on the idea of risking a little to make more than a little.

In this video, I will speak to to this topic and get you away from your $%&*# trade location.</p>

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

<p>Weekend data out of China’s National Bureau of Statistics, a soft reading for Industrial Profits in July. </p><p>Profits at industrial firms in China for the first seven months of the year (i.e. January – July) fell 1.1% y/y</p><ul><li>this compares with the +1.0% for January – June </li></ul><p>Earlier this month we had the July data for retail sales, industrial output and investment all missing economist estimates. The economy is beset by woes from ongoing Covid disruptions (for example, factory output and activities in major manufacturing hubs like Shenzhen and Tianjin were hit during July as renewed COVID curbs were imposed) and the deepening, contagious, slump in the property sector.Looking ahead, officials in China are working to bolster growth, including:</p><ul><li>People’s Bank of China cuts to both one-year, five-year, and seven-day lending rates</li><li>another 1 trillion yuan of funding, mainly directed at infrastructure spending </li></ul><p>-</p><p>Come Monday morning market openings I suspect the backwash from Powell at Jackson Hole on Friday will overshadow this data. </p><ul><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/forexlive-americas-fx-news-wrap-forceful-message-from-powell-sends-dollar-soaring-20220826/“ target=“_blank“ data-article-link=“true“>Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: ‚Forceful‘ message from Powell sends dollar socaring</a></li></ul>

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

<ul><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/feds-powell-decision-on-sept-hike-will-depend-on-totality-of-data-before-meeting-20220826/“>Fed’s Powell: Restoring price stability requires using our tools forcefully</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-june-core-pce-46-vs-47-expected-20220826/“>US June core PCE 4.6% vs. 4.7% expected</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/feds-mester-were-all0in-and-were-going-to-be-resolute-about-getting-inflation-to-goal-20220826/“>Fed’s Mester: We’re all-in and we’re going to be resolute about getting inflation to goal</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/feds-harker-we-need-to-move-methodically-toward-a-clear-restrictive-stance-20220826/“>Fed’s Harker: We need to move methodically toward a clear restrictive stance</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/feds-bullard-were-starting-to-see-some-real-effects-of-rate-hikes-already-20220826/“>Fed’s Bullard: We’re starting to see some real effects of rate hikes already</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/university-of-michigan-sentiment-index-final-for-august-582-versus-551-preliminary-20220826/“>University of Michigan sentiment index (final) for August 58.2 versus 55.1 preliminary</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/dallas-fed-july-trimmed-mean-pce-inflation-34-vs-69-prior-20220826/“>Dallas Fed July trimmed mean PCE inflation +3.4% vs +6.9% prior</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/ecbs-holzmann-75-bps-should-be-part-of-the-debate-in-sept-20220826/“>ECB’s Holzmann: 75 bps should be ‚part of the debate‘ in Sept</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/the-atlantic-hurricane-season-is-off-to-a-slow-start-20220826/“>The Atlantic hurricane season is off to a slow start</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/some-ecb-policymakers-want-to-discuss-a-75-bps-hike-next-month-report-20220826/“>Some ECB policymakers want to discuss a 75 bps hike next month – report</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-july-wholesale-inventories-08-vs-18-prior-20220826/“>US July wholesale inventories +0.8% vs +1.8% prior</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/baker-hughes-us-oil-rig-count-4-20220826/“>Baker Hughes US oil rig count +4</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-advanced-goods-trade-balance-for-july-8906b-versus-9818-billion-last-month-20220826/“>US advanced goods trade balance for July -$89.06B versus $-98.59 billion last month</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/feds-bostic-restrictive-is-35-375-hopeful-to-get-there-by-year-end-20220826/“>Fed’s Bostic: Restrictive is 3.5-3.75%. Want to get there then hold steady</a></li></ul><p>Markets:</p><ul><li>S&P 500 down 3.4%</li><li>Gold down $21 to $1737</li><li>US 10-year yield up 1 bps to 3.03%</li><li>WTI crude oil up $0.34 to $92.86</li><li>USD leads, NZD lags</li></ul><p>There was a dovish lean in the market before Powell as the PCE inflation report came in soft. That was validated by Bostic as he said it made him lean more slightly towards 50 bps in September.</p><p>However it all came undone with Powell. He delivered a crisp 8-minute speech that included strong language on holding rates higher for longer and taking ‚forceful‘ action, which is a tool he hasn’t used before. In terms of clear signals, he said Sept was still undecided as they wait for data.</p><p>There was no big red flag in the speech that argued for buying the dollar and selling stocks. Instead it was the collective tone of the speech along with it’s brevity. It alluded to a clear parallel with the 1970s and the importance of keeping rates higher for longer rather than easing at the first sign of economic weakness or a retreat in inflation. Powell also emphasized that the Fed was prepared to tolerate economic pain to achieve its objectives.</p><p>I’d argue the Fed doesn’t have credibility on staying hawkish if the economy turns but the market certainly argued against that today. The initial reaction snowballed and the dollar bid hardly gave up a pip with virtually everything finishing at the extremes of the day.</p><p>The moves argue that equities were looking for some kind of dovish hint from Powell but couldn’t find it. Curiously though, the rates market didn’t move much on Powell. In bonds, the flight to safety bid would have helped that but even in Fed funds futures, the pricing was largely unchanged.</p><p>The euro had tried to stage a rally earlier and accelerated on the PCE data but was reeled in on Powell to finish unchanged and at the lowest weekly close since 2003.</p><p>Cable also suffered in a big outside day to finish 90 pips lower.</p><p>Oil managed to finish slightly higher but that was little help for the commodity currencies as they all fell, though the loonie was the best of the bunch. </p><p>Most importantly might have been USD/JPY as even in a brutal day for stocks, it added 100 pips. The yen has truly lost its safe haven status and that’s a big change. It reflects rate differentials at the moment and today’s move comes with hawkish Fed connotations so there’s a fundamental backing but long-term rates were lower today and this isn’t the first time. Beware of further dollar gains from here.</p>

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

<ul><li>S&P 500 down 143 points or 3.4% to 4057</li><li>Nasdaq down 3.9%</li><li>DJIA down 3.0%</li><li>Russell 2000 -3.4%</li></ul><p>Powell won’t be getting too many backslaps from anyone at Jackson Hole tonight.</p><p>The old saying is that market’s don’t bottom on Friday’s either and that data bears it out. <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://twitter.com/bespokeinvest“ target=“_blank“ rel=“nofollow“>Bespoke </a>shows that a 3% decline on a Friday averages a 1.5% decline on Monday.</p><p>And with a chart like this, ther’s plenty of downside below. It’s a bit of a head-and-shoulders top targeting 3900.</p>

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.