That opposed to a Trump victory of course, according to Goldman Sachs. The firm argues that economic output will take a hit next year under the Trump banner. And that is mostly from increased tariffs on imports and tighter immigration policies. Adding that jobs growth will also be stronger under a Democrat government as opposed to a Republican one.

„We estimate that if Trump wins in a sweep or with divided government, the hit go growth from tariffs and tighter immigration policy would outweigh the positive fiscal impulse, resulting in a peak hit to GDP growth of -0.5% in 2H 2025 that abates in 2026. If Democrats sweep, new spending and expanded middle-income tax credits would slightly more than offset lower investment due to higher corporate tax rates, resulting in a very slight boost to GDP investment due to higher corporate tax rates, resulting in a very slight boost to GDP growth on average over 2025-26.“

On the inflation front, Goldman Sachs says that a Trump win will likely lead to a rise in core inflation amid increased tariffs on auto imports from China and the EU.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Yesterday, we got the US
ISM Manufacturing PMI and even though the headline number missed
expectations, under the hood the report was better than the prior month.

The bad news was new orders
falling further into contraction, which is a proxy for demand, and it’s
generally considered as a leading indicator.

Tight monetary policy of
course has been weighing a lot on the manufacturing sector and if the Fed
manages to avoid a hard landing as it cuts rates in the next months, we could
see a rebound in Q4.

From a monetary policy
perspective, the data didn’t change much for the Fed expectations although the
probabilities for a 50 bps cut edged a bit higher. For the RBNZ, the market
sees a 40% probability of a 50 bps cut in October and a total of 75 bps of
easing by year-end.

NZDUSD
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that NZDUSD is testing a key support
zone around the 0.6175 level where we can find the confluence
of the trendline
and the 38.2% Fibonacci
retracement level. We can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk
below the trendline to position for a rally into a new high. The sellers, on
the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the
bearish bets into the 0.6050 support.

NZDUSD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the setup around the 0.6175 level. There’s also a counter-trendline
defining the bearish momentum of the pullback. The buyers will want to see the
price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into new highs, while the
sellers will likely lean on it to position for a break below the major upward
trendline.

NZDUSD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that the price consolidated near the trendline with no major reaction from
the ISM Manufacturing PMI. There’s not much else we can glean from this
timeframe as the buyers will just look for a bounce, while the sellers will
look for a break. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming
Catalysts

Today we have the US Job Openings. Tomorrow, we get the US Jobless Claims
figures and the ISM Services PMI. Finally, on Friday, we conclude the week with
the US NFP report.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

• Just a week to go until the next US presidential debate
• US futures dribble lower on the session
• Gold stays poised for a firmer breakout in big week for the dollar
• European equities open a little higher to start the day
• SNB has just about the right excuse to do a little bit more later this month
• Switzerland Q2 GDP +0.7% vs +0.5% q/q expected
• What are the main events for today?
• Switzerland August CPI +1.1% vs +1.2% y/y expected
• Eurostoxx futures -0.1% in early European trading
• FX option expiries for 3 September 10am New York cut
• Swiss data in focus in the session ahead
• China to launch anti-dumping investigation into Canadian chemical products

Markets:

• USD leads, AUD lags on the day
• European equities lower;
  S&P 500 futures down 0.50%
• US 10-year yields flat at
  3.91%
• Gold flat at $2,500
• WTI
  crude down 1.88% to $72.17
• Bitcoin
  down 0.17% to $50,041

The
European session has been dominated by defensive positioning into the US ISM
Manufacturing PMI release. As a reminder, the last month the ISM Manufacturing
PMI triggered a selloff in risk assets as we got the growth scare.

The main
culprit might have been the employment sub-index dropping to a 4 year low, so
that will be something to keep an eye on today ahead of the NFP report on Friday.

Early in
the morning, we got the Swiss CPI report which came out a touch softer,
although the Core measure remained unchanged, and diminished the probabilities
for a 50 bps cut at the upcoming SNB meeting.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Last week, crude oil has
been on a seesaw due to supply side factors as we got the news that Libya was going to close down all
oil fields and halt
production and exports, and then that Iraq was going to cut production.

On Friday, oil weakened
again on the news
that OPEC+ was going to proceed with the planned production hike in October. In
the bigger picture, the market has been mostly rangebound for two years as
central banks tightening weighed on growth.

Right now, it seems like
the Fed is going to cut rates into a resilient economy which could spur
economic activity. If they really manage to pull out a soft landing, it should
support the crude oil market. On the other hand, if the data increases the
expectations for a hard landing, we should see new lows ahead.

Watch out for the US ISM
Manufacturing PMI release today as that will likely set the trend into NFP across
all markets.

Crude Oil
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that crude oil is now near the key 72.50 support.
This is where we can expect the buyers to step back in with a defined risk
below the support to position for a rally into the 80 handle. The sellers, on
the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the
bearish bets into the 67.50 level next.

Crude Oil Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have a strong trendline defining the bearish bias. If we
bounce around these levels and get there, we can expect the sellers to lean on
it with a defined risk above it to position for a break below the 72.50
support. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking
higher to increase the bullish bets into the 80 handle.

Crude Oil Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have a nice resistance zone around the 74 handle. If we get a
bounce around the support, the buyers will want to see the price breaking above
the resistance to increase the bullish bets into the trendline. The sellers, on
the other hand, will likely lean on it to position for a break below the
support. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming
Catalysts

Today we have the US ISM Manufacturing PMI. Tomorrow, we have the US Job
Openings. On Thursday, we get the US Jobless Claims figures and the ISM
Services PMI. Finally, on Friday, we conclude the week with the US NFP
report.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

The event will take place at the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia at 9pm EDT (or 0100 GMT the next day). The question is, if there is a clear winner, who will be better or worse for the dollar?

The short answer is that it isn’t going to be so straightforward.

On the one hand, Trump is more pro-business and could also clamp down hard on trade policy. Tariffs, anyone? And the latter could still benefit the dollar somewhat amid protectionism and safety flows into markets. But too much of that is also a bad thing and could harm the dollar.

And on the other hand, there’s also Trump having recently come out to want a weaker dollar and warning to the Fed not to cut rates before the election. For some context: Trump wants a weaker dollar but will he get his wish?

As for Harris, there’s the argument that her winning will be a continuation of stability amid ongoing policy arrangements. For me, that’s not really an argument on its own but let’s just try to be open a little about it, eh?

But on the flip side, there are concerns over increased spending especially. That raises more questions surrounding the fiscal status of the US and what not. So, again there are arguments on both sides.

Anyway, whatever the case is, markets will eventually find a narrative to land on. And that will be made more clear once there is a favourite going into November. That makes the debate next week a key litmus test in trying to figure out who that will be.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The USD has finally got
some relief since last week after being battered for weeks. The focus is now on
the key data this week with the ISM Manufacturing PMI today and the NFP report
on Friday in the spotlight.

The market is waiting for
the key economic releases this week, and especially the NFP report, as that
will likely decide whether the Fed is going to deliver a standard 25 bps cut or
go for a more aggressive 50 bps cut in the upcoming meeting.

Right now, it looks like
the Fed is going to cut rates into a resilient economy, which has been a
positive driver for the risk sentiment, but if the data deteriorates further,
it could trigger recessionary fears.

Therefore, besides the
headline ISM number today, watch also the employment sub-index as a drop into
new lows could spook the markets while an improvement could lead to a positive
sentiment.

Tomorrow, we have also the
BoC Rate Decision where the central bank is expected to cut rates by 25 bps. The
recent CPI report showed some more easing in the
underlying inflation measures and the labour market data was pretty soft.

Overall, it doesn’t look
like the central bank will go for a 50 bps cut but it cannot be completely
ruled out. Including the September cut, the market expects a total of 75 bps of
easing by year end.

USDCAD
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that USDCAD bounced near the 1.34 handle after an incredible run to the
downside. From a risk to reward perspective, the sellers will have a better setup
around the 1.36 handle where they will find a strong resistance
where to lean onto to position for a drop into the 1.32 handle. The buyers, on
the other hand, will want to see the price breaking above the 1.36 resistance
to get back control and position for a rally into the 1.38 handle.

USDCAD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have minor upward trendline defining the current bullish momentum.
The buyers will likely keep on leaning on it to target the 1.36 resistance,
while the sellers will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the
bearish bets into the 1.34 handle.

USDCAD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can
see the recent price action with some clean higher highs and higher lows on
this timeframe. For now, the buyers remain in control and the sellers will need
the price to break below the trendline to change the bias back to bearish. The
red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming
Catalysts

Today we have the US ISM Manufacturing PMI. Tomorrow, we have the BoC Rate Decision
and the US Job Openings. On Thursday, we get the US Jobless Claims figures and
the ISM Services PMI. Finally, on Friday, we conclude the week with the Canadian
labour market report and the US NFP.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

The risk mood was seen steadier at the open in Europe this morning but has quickly turned in the last hour or so. S&P 500 futures are now down 0.5% with Nasdaq futures down 0.8%. Meanwhile, Dow futures are also down by 0.5% currently. That is putting a drag on European equities as well while propping up the dollar and yen in FX.

I’m not seeing any clear cut catalyst for the move but it is all coming as we look to greet Wall Street from the long weekend later in the day.

US stocks endured a bumpy ride last week and that was only salvaged by a jump on Friday. In particular, it was the final two hours that saw equities rebound at the time. Something, something, month-end or whatever.

For this week, it’s all about US data so it is perhaps still too early to say much about the move we’re seeing here.

In any case, it is putting a light bid in the dollar with EUR/USD and GBP/USD both down 0.3% to 1.1035 and 1.3110 respectively.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Weekly update on interest rates expectations
• A growing rift at the ECB on the economic outlook?
• SNB total sight deposits w.e. 30 August CHF 456.7 bn vs CHF 463.6 bn prior
• Italy Q2 final GDP 0.2% vs 0.2% Q/Q expected
• Eurozone August final manufacturing PMI 45.8 vs 45.6 prelim
• Switzerland August manufacturing PMI 49.0 vs 43.5 expected
• UK August final manufacturing PMI 52.5 vs. 52.5 prelim

Markets:

• EUR leads, JPY lags on the day
• European equities slightly lower
• 10-year German bund yields up 3 bps to 2.33%
• Gold down 0.2% to $2,498.63
• WTI crude up 0.3% to $73.75
• Bitcoin up 2.3% to $58,630

It’s a quiet start to the new week with the dollar keeping more mixed in general, as the yen lags on the day. It is a holiday for North American markets, so that isn’t giving traders much to work with amid the longer weekend.

The yen is down as bond yields are a little higher, with USD/JPY moving up from around 146.10 earlier to near 146.90 currently.

The greenback isn’t seeing broad based gains though. EUR/USD is up 0.1% to 1.1063 while USD/CHF is up 0.1% to 0.8510, and AUD/USD up 0.1% to 0.6773. It’s a mixed picture with the kiwi lagging slightly as well across the board, with NZD/USD down 0.4% to 0.6225.

European indices are also showing light changes while gold is down slightly under $2,500 as the tug of war there continues.

In terms of market flows, it’s not one to attribute anything towards to start the week.

All eyes are on key labour market data from the US later in the week. So, the early stages here are more just traders settling back into things after month-end last week.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Gold continues to trade in
a tight range as the market awaits the key catalysts this week. As a reminder,
the Fed is now very focused on the labour market as Fed Chair Powell said that
they will not welcome any more weakness and will do everything they can to keep
it strong.

Therefore, the NFP report
on Friday will decide whether the central bank will go with a standard 25 bps
cut in September or take a more aggressive approach with a 50 bps cut. Before
that, we will get other important releases like the ISM Manufacturing PMI tomorrow
which last month triggered the “growth scare”.

In the bigger picture, gold
should remain supported as real yields fall due to the Fed’s rate cut cycle,
but in the short-term, strong US data might weighed on the market a bit.

Gold
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that gold got stuck in a tight range as the lack of catalysts kept the
market at bay. Nonetheless, the buyers remain in control for now and they will
keep targeting new all-time highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to
see the price falling back below the 2480 level to turn the bias more bearish
and position for a drop into the 2430 level next.

Gold Technical Analysis
– 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the range between the 2480 support
and the 2530 resistance. The market participants will likely keep on “playing
the range” by buying at support and selling at resistance until we get a
breakout on either side.

Gold Technical Analysis
– 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can
see the choppy price action of the last two weeks. There’s not much to do here
other than waiting for a breakout. The red lines define the average daily range for today and given the lack of
catalysts and the US holiday we shouldn’t expect any breakout today.

Upcoming
Catalysts

Tomorrow we have the US ISM Manufacturing PMI. On Wednesday, we have the US Job
Openings. On Thursday, we get the US Jobless Claims figures and the ISM Services
PMI. Finally, on Friday, we conclude the week with the US NFP report.

See the video below

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

The dollar battled in month-end trading last week and that kept a lid on AUD/USD, with sellers also holding at the July high around the figure level. The key level there will remain a focus this week, especially with the dollar side of the equation set to come under heavy scrutiny.

It’s all about jobs-related data in the US for broader markets to start September trading. And not only will that that heavily influence dollar sentiment, but also risk sentiment this week.

There’s not much in it today with the greenback trading more mixed. USD/JPY is up 0.4% to 146.70 but AUD/USD is up 0.3% to 0.6781 currently. The latter is still trading within a 30 pips range, so I wouldn’t be calling for a serious test of 0.6800 just yet.

Buyers will need some form of trigger to really get going, especially after being checked back last week.

As things stand, the key driver of the move higher in AUD/USD is still a case of a divergence between the RBA and Fed.

Last week, we got more stubborn inflation data from Australia here. However, that wasn’t quite enough to seal a breakout for buyers. It may be month-end or it may be sellers leaning on a key technical level and holding. But the fact is price action is still not signaling a break just yet.

And that brings us to this week now. The focus turns towards labour market data from the US. Traders are pricing in ~29% odds of a 50 bps rate cut later this month by the Fed. And for the remaining three meetings this year, there’s ~98 bps of rate cuts priced in.

Are we going to see more shaky data that will compel traders to try and force the Fed’s hand? Or is it all a hiccup and we’re going to have to run that back a little in the weeks ahead?

That will be key in determining what comes next for AUD/USD as well. It’s been a nice ride up since the double-bottom in early August. Now, we’re at a critical juncture and I wouldn’t be taking any bets until we get more clarity from US data at this stage.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.