The technical look for the pair is no different from where we were here yesterday. The drop earlier in the week brings into focus key technical support near the 200-day moving average (blue line). And that is still where we are now ahead of the ECB and more US data later in the day.

The pair moved down on Tuesday to test the 200-day moving average, alongside the 61.8 Fib retracement level at 0.8883. That saw the drop get arrested, before a minor bounce yesterday. The bounce itself then stalled at the 100-day moving average (red line), which allowed sellers to push price back lower today.

It’s now a battle in between these two levels in identifying what will come next for USD/CHF.

Break below the key support region highlighted, and there is much room to run to the downside. On the flip side, break back above the 100-day moving average, and that is an opportunity for buyers to wrestle back some control after the break under 0.9000.

The potential trigger events today are the ECB and the US weekly jobless claims later today. If that doesn’t move the needle in USD/CHF, it will be over to the US jobs report tomorrow to settle the score.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior -5.7%
• Market index 180.4 vs 190.3 prior
• Purchase index 132.3 vs 138.4 prior
• Refinance index 432.1 vs 463.8 prior
• 30-year mortgage rate 7.07% vs 7.05% prior

That’s another soft reading as the recent rebound in mortgage activity has all but faded now. The latest drop in the market index brings it to the lowest since the end of February.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Let’s talk about risk to
reward ratio. This is something controversial, because setting a fixed RR
(reward to risk) like 3:1 isn’t fully wrong, but it isn’t even right. You need
to understand that there are no certainties that your trade goes to the target,
it may reverse at 1:1.

You may say „yeah,
but I would have already put my SL at BE (breakeven) by that time, because I
trailed it“ and you would be correct, but what if all of your 3:1 trades
end up at breakeven? Your account would be actually down a little because of the commissions
you paid. You would have worked hard for nothing.

That’s why you shouldn’t
have a fixed rule like that, in trading you need to adapt, be flexible and
proactive. Your soft target may be a technical level like a strong support or
resistance zone, or maybe a Fibonacci extension level and so on, but your trade
should remain active until you see that the reasons for the trade
have changed, or you lost conviction in it.

If your reasons are still
there you can keep it active or maybe you can take some profits off the table
at different times and let the rest run. You can also manage the trade by
trailing your stop loss behind strong swing points for example. But if the
reasons aren’t there anymore just close it and get what you gained instead of
hoping and losing all your gain exiting with a BE trade, or worse a loss.

You can even cut your
losses limiting them to a fraction of your original risk, there’s no need to
holding just because of hope. You can see that this way your trade can even
turn into a 5:1 or more and that will compensate for your losing trades. Remember
that it’s not about being right or wrong but how much you make when you’re
right and how much you lose when you’re wrong.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

„I think there is certainly a high likelihood. But it is not inevitable at the moment.“

Until one of the major players pioneer the use of a digital currency successfully, one can expect these „plans“ to be ongoing indefinitely. China has been the leader in this space and even through forceful means, a digital yuan can hardly be said to be a success. So, I wouldn’t expect other major central banks to adopt this any time soon. But if and when the change comes, it will be a swift one across the globe.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental
Overview

The mood in the markets has
been slowly improving this week after the month-end flows last week impacted
the risk sentiment. The US data this week came on the softer side which sent
Treasury yields lower and consolidated the market’s expectations of two rate
cuts by the end of the year.

The risk-on sentiment is
still present in the markets as the data overall has been showing good growth
without worrying inflationary pressures. If this were to continue, Bitcoin could
reach a new all-time high in the next few weeks.

Bitcoin
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that Bitcoin bounced on the 67275 support and extended the rally into the next
resistance around the 72000 level. The buyers continue to buy the dips looking
for a new all-time high as long as the risk sentiment supports the market. The
sellers, on the other hand, might lean on the 72000 resistance with a defined
risk above it to position for a drop back into the 67275 level.

Bitcoin Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we had some nice confluence around the support with the trendline and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. This technically strengthens
the support zone, so the sellers will need to break below that level to target
the 60000 support next. If we get a pullback from the 72000 resistance, we can
expect the buyers to lean on the trendline again to position for a breakout to
the upside.

Bitcoin Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have some choppy price action at the moment around the 70640 level.
This recent breakout should see the buyers increasing the bullish bets into the
all-time high. The sellers will want to see the price falling below the 70000
level to position for a drop into the major trendline. The red lines define the
average daily range for today.

Upcoming
Catalysts

Today we get the US ADP and the US ISM Services PMI. Tomorrow, we will see
the latest US Jobless Claims figures, while on Friday we conclude the week with
the US NFP report.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

In FX, USD/JPY is the main mover on the day with the pair up 0.9% to 156.20 currently. Besides that, USD/CHF is up slightly by 0.3% to 0.8925 amid a test of key technical support here. But outside of that, the changes are minimal with narrow ranges still prevailing on the day. I mean, EUR/USD is still contained within a 15 pips range so that does say quite a bit.

In other markets, bonds are also settling down a bit after the strong bids since last week. 10-year yields in the US are up 1.3 bps to 4.349% amid another test of the critical juncture here. As for stocks, European indices are up slightly in catching up to the Wall Street rebound yesterday. US futures are a touch higher but nothing outstanding as of yet.

All eyes now are on the US ADP employment roulette data coming up later. This is a report that I’ve grown to detest over the years and I’m sure I am not alone on that. It has lost much of its importance in terms of relating to the overall labour market report on Friday. And the numbers here can even come up to be rather random at times. Hence, the roulette table meme.

Today will be no different with the estimated reading seen at 175K for May, down from the 192K in April.

Still, it is one that markets will look towards to make any moves. Or at least the algos will. That especially if there is a big miss or beat on the estimate. So, do keep an eye out for the data later even if it might not be one that predicts well what to expect from Friday’s non-farm payrolls.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Headlines:

• The one word that markets are concerned with right now
• Safety flows dominate the major currencies bloc on the day
• Equities sour further in European morning trade
• What are the main events to look out for today?
• BOJ reportedly mulls reducing bond purchases as early as June meeting
• BOJ’s Himino: It is inappropriate for monetary policy to target exchange rate
• Germany May unemployment change 25k vs 7k expected
• Switzerland May CPI +1.4% vs +1.4% y/y expected

Markets:

• JPY leads, AUD lags on the day
• European equities lower; S&P 500 futures down 0.4%
• US 10-year yields down 1.6 bps to 4.386%
• Gold down 1.0% to $2,327.48
• WTI crude down 1.5% to $72.92
• Bitcoin down 0.3% to $68,911

The dollar is finding a footing in the new day, as risk sentiment in markets soured in European trading. There wasn’t a direct trigger but I would argue that softer US data as of late is starting to bring about stagflation risks. And that is seeing market players start to stand up and take notice.

Equities sold off right from the onset with European indices bordering on 1% losses across the board. S&P 500 futures fell from flat levels to be down by 0.6% before pulling back a little.

In the bond market, 10-year yields continue to retreat in a fall to 4.386% today. For some context, it was as high as 4.638% just last week.

Going back to FX, USD/JPY fell from around 156.40 in Asia all the way down to 154.70 at the lows for the day. The pair is now still down 0.6% but holding just above 155.00. That makes the yen the lead gainer on the day.

The dollar is seen gaining elsewhere with EUR/USD down 0.4% to 1.0860 and GBP/USD also down 0.4% to 1.2750 on the day. The commodity currencies are the laggard amid the dour risk mood. USD/CAD is up 0.4% to 1.3680 while AUD/USD is down 0.7% to 0.6640 currently.

The flight to safety also saw a selloff in commodities with oil back down under $73 and gold down 1% to $2,327 levels at the moment. The big drag though is in silver, as the precious metal is down over 3% in a fall back under the $30 mark.

It is on to the US JOLTS job openings next.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

After a flurry of nominations
across both categories – Broker Awards and B2B Awards – the Nomination Round in
the UF AWARDS Global 2024 has officially come to an end. The response has been
overwhelming, with a staggering number of nominations received.

The focus now shifts to the
exciting stages ahead, starting with the Voting Round where industry players
and fintech enthusiasts alike have the opportunity to cast their votes for
their favourite online trading and fintech brands.

The Voting Round will remain
open until 12 June, so anyone wishing to participate in the next stage of the
process is encouraged to do so without delay by visiting the UF AWARDS
website.

The UF AWARDS recognise the
brands that truly excel in the online trading and fintech space, and every
accolade is a testament to the industry benchmark of the best companies to
trade and do business with.

With so many business players
battling for global recognition, the industry’s zest to recognise and celebrate
excellence in online trading and fintech is at an all-time high. Here are some
of the categories calling industry insiders to vote:

Broker Awards

• Best Global Broker
• Broker of the Year
• Best Trading Experience
• Best CFD Broker
• Best Trade Execution
• Best IB/Affiliate Programme

Fintech Awards

• Best Technology Provider
• Best Payment Service Provider
• Best CRM Software Provider
• Most Trusted Liquidity
  Provider
• Best Bridge Provider
• Best Social Trading Solution

Cast your vote in 3 simple steps

For those less familiar with
the UF AWARDS voting procedure, below are 3 easy steps to follow:

●
Register
at the UF AWARDS website, or log in if you have already done so.

●
Select the brand you wish to vote for in each
relevant category.

●
Click ‘SUBMIT’ to confirm your vote. Make your
voice heard!

Remember! You can vote in
multiple categories but only once in each.

Good to know

The nominated brands have
been selected following a stringent vetting process designed by the organisers
to ensure the utmost transparency and fairness. To see the line-up, visit the
UF AWARDS Global 2024 website and cast your votes today!
It’s time to make an industry-wide impact.

Voting closes with the highly
anticipated UF AWARDS Global 2024 Ceremony set to take place on 20 June at
Columbia Beach Bar in Limassol, Cyprus. The best of the best in online trading
and fintech will be called to the stage for everyone to applaud.

Attended by C-level
executives and thought leaders, the UF AWARDS Global Ceremony will offer the
perfect mix of business and entertainment, allowing participants to relish the
atmosphere of this exclusive seafront venue. You can’t miss this!

This article was written by Jeff Patterson at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental
Overview

Yesterday, the US
ISM Manufacturing PMI missed forecasts although it wasn’t such a big miss
as it was still in the range of estimates, but it was nonetheless a miss and the market reacted accordingly. I’d
say that one bad report amid a series of good ones shouldn’t be enough for a
change in the trend, especially considering that the final reading of the S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI released a bit earlier showed an even greater improvement. The ISM report though, should set aside the inflation fears
which should be good news for the stock market as long as we don’t have more worrying data on the growth side.

S&P 500
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that the S&P 500 bounced recently around the 5200 level where we had
the confluence
of the trendline
and the 50% Fibonacci
retracement level. That’s where the buyers piled in on the last day of the
month fading the weakness from the month-end flows. The sellers will need the
price to break below the trendline to turn the bias more bearish and start
targeting a drop into the 5000 level.

S&P 500 Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that the price recently probed above the downward counter-trendline but
couldn’t really extend the rally into new highs. The 5313 level will be the
spot to watch as a break above it should see the buyers increasing the bullish
bets into a new all-time high. The sellers, on the other hand, should wait for
a break below the major trendline to get a bit more conviction for a correction
lower.

S&P 500 Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the recent price action with the S&P 500 now consolidating
between the major trendline and the 5312 level. There isn’t much to do in the
middle of this “range” as the erratic moves could give false signals. If we get
another drop into the major trendline though, some late buyers could take it as
an opportunity to step in with a better risk to reward setup. The red lines
define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming
Catalysts

Today we have the US Job Openings data. Tomorrow, we have the US ADP and the
US ISM Services PMI. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures,
while on Friday we conclude the week with the US NFP report.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

The dollar is trading to the highs for the day against the other major currencies outside of the yen and franc. EUR/USD is now down 0.3% to 1.0868 while GBP/USD is down 0.4% to 1.2758 on the day. Commodity currencies are bearing the brunt of the pain with AUD/USD in particular now down 0.8% to 0.6635 and erasing all of its gains from yesterday.

The drop also sees sellers looking to seize back near-term control on a push below the key hourly moving averages. The confluence of the 100 (red line) and 200-hour (blue line) moving averages is at 0.6640-43.

Meanwhile, USD/CAD is also marked higher by 0.5% to 1.3695 on the day and NZD/USD down 0.4% to 0.6160 currently.

It’s an all out flight to safety in European morning trade thus far. Equities are keeping on the defensive with European indices down roughly 1% across the board. S&P 500 futures are down by 0.6% currently.

Going back to FX, USD/JPY is now down 0.7% to test the 155.00 level. The pair is down by more than 140 pips since Asia trading.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.