Crude oil remains confined
in a range between the 72.00 resistance and the 67.00 support as the market
continues to weigh the future scenarios.

On one hand, we have the
Trump’s victory which might be seen as bearish in the short term for fear of
the tariffs and a slowdown in global growth as other countries could retaliate,
and an increase in supply.

On the other hand, the red
sweep should see Trump focusing more on tax cuts and domestic issues first which
should eventually lift global growth expectations. If we had a divided
Congress, then his first priority could have been indeed a trade war.

Moreover, we have also central
banks easing their monetary policies and that generally leads the manufacturing
cycle, which is likely to be supportive for the crude oil market.

More recently, we got the
news that OPEC+
could further extend its voluntary output cuts at the December meeting and another
better US
Manufacturing PMI which contributed to the bullish sentiment in the past
few days.

Crude Oil
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that crude oil is approaching the top of the range between the resistance around the 72.00 handle and the
support around the 67.00 handle. The focus will now be on the potential
breakout.

The buyers will want to see
the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into the 78.00 handle
next, while the sellers will likely step in around the resistance to position
for a drop back into the 67.00 support.

Crude Oil Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that the price recently broke above the middle of the range around the
69.50 level which acted as kind of a barometer for the short term sentiment.
The buyers piled in on a break higher to extend the rally into the top of the
range. The sellers will need to see the price breaking below it to increase the
bearish bets into the bottom of the range.

Crude Oil Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have an upward trendline
now defining the current bullish momentum. If we were to get a pullback, the
buyers will likely lean on it to position for the breakout of the range. The
sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break below the trendline and the
69.50 zone to target a drop into the 67.00 support. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming
Catalysts

Tomorrow we have the US Consumer Confidence report and the FOMC Meeting Minutes.
On Wednesday, we get the US PCE report and the latest US Jobless Claims
figures.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

• Monday: PBoC MLF, German IFO.
• Tuesday: US Consumer Confidence, FOMC Minutes.
• Wednesday: Australia Monthly CPI, RBNZ Policy Decision, US
  Q3 GDP 2nd Estimate, US PCE, US Durable Goods, US Jobless
  Claims.
• Thursday: German CPI. (US Holiday)
• Friday: Tokyo CPI, Japan Unemployment Rate, France CPI,
  Switzerland Q3 GDP, Eurozone CPI, Canada GDP.

Tuesday

The US Consumer
Confidence is expected at 111.6 vs. 108.7 prior. Last month, consumer
confidence bounced back strongly from 99.2 in September to 108.7 in October.

Dana M. Peterson,
Chief Economist at The Conference Board said: “Consumer confidence recorded the
strongest monthly gain since March 2021, but still did not break free of the
narrow range that has prevailed over the past two years.”

“Consumers’
assessments of current business conditions turned positive. Views on the
current availability of jobs rebounded after several months of weakness,
potentially reflecting better labour market data.”

“Compared to last
month, consumers were substantially more optimistic about future business
conditions and remained positive about future income. Also, for the first time
since July 2023, they showed some cautious optimism about future job
availability.”

Wednesday

The Australian
Monthly CPI Y/Y is expected at 2.3% vs. 2.1% prior. The focus will be on the
Trimmed Mean Y/Y measure though which came out at 3.2% in the prior month. Inflation is slowly falling back to the
RBA’s target band of 2-3% and the market expects the first cut in February 2025.

The RBNZ is
expected to cut the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 bps bringing the policy rate
to 4.25%. Inflation is back in the RBNZ’s target range, so the central bank can
focus on growth now especially with the unemployment rate continuing to climb.

The US PCE Y/Y is
expected at 2.3% vs. 2.1% prior, while the M/M measure is seen at 0.2% vs. 0.2%
prior. The Core PCE Y/Y is expected at 2.8% vs. 2.7% prior, while the M/M
figure is seen at 0.3% vs. 0.3% prior.

Forecasters can
reliably estimate the PCE once the CPI and PPI are out, so the market already
knows what to expect. Therefore, unless we see a deviation from the
expected numbers, it shouldn’t affect the current market’s pricing.

The US Jobless
Claims continues to be one of the most important releases to follow every week
as it’s a timelier indicator on the state of the labour market.

Initial Claims
remain inside the 200K-260K range created since 2022, while Continuing Claims remain
around the cycle highs.

This week Initial
Claims are expected at 217K vs. 213K prior, while Continuing Claims are seen at
1909K vs. 1908K prior.

Friday

The Tokyo Core CPI
Y/Y is expected at 2.1% vs. 1.8% prior. Inflation in Japan is basically at
target but the BoJ remains cautious on hiking rates too fast. The commentary
remains elusive, but Governor Ueda highlighted once again the impact a weak yen
has on economic and price outlook. As a reminder, the weak yen was one of the
key factors that led the BoJ to raise interest rates in July.

The Eurozone CPI
Y/Y is expected at 2.4% vs. 2.0% prior, while the Core CPI Y/Y is seen at 2.9%
vs. 2.7% prior. The weak Eurozone PMIs on Friday led the market to raise the
chances of a 50 bps cut in December from 20% before the data to 60% after. We
will likely need an upside surprise to strengthen the case for a 25 bps move,
otherwise we could get to the meeting with a 50/50 chance.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

• “Prices are increasing less quickly than wages on average — this also allows us to lower interest rates”

Villeroy stressed that the ECB reaches its interest rate policy decisions independent of the Federal Reserve:

• “The proof is that we had started to lower interest rates at the beginning of June, and the Fed only lowered them three months later. With the fall in inflation, we will be able to continue to lower rates.”

**

The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to cut rates at its next meeting, on December 12. 25bp is the expectation although weaker data has raised the prospect of a 50bp cut.

The Bank’s rate cut cycle so far:

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

• U.S. government fiscal sustainability tops the list of financial system risks cited in the Fed survey of market contacts for the semi-annual Financial Stability Report.
• Persistent inflation dropped to No. 5 on the risks list from No. 1 in the prior survey, now tied with global trade risks.
• Trade issues, last cited as a salient risk in May 2020, were previously a top concern during Trump’s first term in 2019.
• Middle East tensions, policy uncertainty, and a potential U.S. recession are among the top-cited risks in the Fed survey.
• The NY Fed surveyed 24 market contacts from August to October on risks to U.S. financial stability.
• Asset valuation pressures are „elevated,“ though corporate bond spreads remain low; business and household debt risks are considered „moderate.“
• Liquidity conditions in the Treasury cash market appear challenged and could amplify shocks.
• Financial sector leverage vulnerabilities remain notable, with hedge fund leverage near the highest levels since 2013.
• Stablecoin assets rose to nearly $170 billion by early November, with the potential for rapid scaling and vulnerability to runs.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

• Major indices close higher for the trading week by the Russell 2000
• Baker Hughes oil rigs up 1 Gas rigs down -2
• European shares close higher despite weak data today
• Attack the currency trend: The EURUSD has been stepping lower with more selling today
• What is the latest tilt for US Treasury Secretary?
• University of Michigan consumer sentiment final for November 71.8 versus 73.7 estimate
• Tech giants stumble: Communication services slump amid mixed market signals
• S&P global manufacturing PMI 48.8 versus 48.8 estimate. Services 57.0 versus 55.2 estimate
• ECBs Nagel (Hawk): PMI data confirms that Germany is stagnating
• ECBs Villeroy: ECB is achieving a soft landing
• Canada retail sales for September 0.4% vs 0.4% estimate
• Canada October new housing price index MoM -0.4% vs 0.1% expected
• SNB chairman Schlegel: Switzerland needs flexible inflation target, as it currently has
• ForexLive European FX news wrap: Poor PMI data weighs on euro, pound

Markets:

• Gold up $37.21 or 1.4% $2706.61
• US 10-year yield 4.414%, -1 point basis points
• US 2-year yield 4.377%, +220 basis points
• WTI crude oil up $1.08 or 1.53% $71.19
• S&P 500 rose . For the week the index rose 1.52%
• NASDAQ rose . For the week the index rose 1.62%
• Russell 2000 rose . For the week the index rose 4.3079%
• Dow rose . For the week the index rose 1.76%
• European shares moved higher with the UK FTSE 100 rising 1.38% and German DAX rising 0.8% leading the way. France’s CAC rose 0.58% was the weakest performer.

The US dollar rose against all the major currency pairs, but was mixed for the week with the USD falling vs the CAD and the NZD.

• EUR, +0.58%. For the week, the US dollar rose by 1.18%.
• JPY +0.20%. For the week the US dollar rose 0.35%
• GBP, +0.47%. For the week the US dollar rose 0.71%
• CHF +0.87%. For the week the US dollar rose 0.74%.
• CAD +0.08%. The week the US dollar fell -0.70%
• AUD +0.25%. For the week the US dollar fell is 0.58%
• NZD +0.53%. For the week, the US dollar rose 0.54%
• DXY 0.57%. For the week the dollar index rose 0.0%

Fundamentally, the US data today was mixed with the S&P global PMI manufacturing and services indices higher.

• For Manufacturing PMI, the index moved from 47.8 to 48.8
• For the services index it surged to 57.0 from 55.3 last month.

From Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence

The business mood has brightened in November, with confidence about the year ahead hitting a two-and-a-half year high. The prospect of lower interest rates and a more probusiness approach from the incoming administration has fueled greater optimism, in turn helping drive output and order book inflows higher in November. The rise in the headline flash PMI indicates that economic growth is accelerating in the fourth quarter, while at the same time inflationary pressures are cooling. The survey’s price gauge covering goods and services signalled only a marginal increase in prices in November, pointing to consumer inflation running well below the Fed’s 2% target.

A concern is that growth remains heavily reliant on the services economy, with manufacturing production declining at an increased rate. However, the promise of greater protectionism and tariffs has helped lift confidence in the US good producing sector, which is already feeding through to higher factory employment. Factories are meanwhile stepping up their purchases of imported inputs as they seek to front-run tariffs, putting pressure on supply chains to a degree not seen for over two years. Any further stretching of these supply lines could see prices move higher as demand outstrips supply.

Later the University of Michigan sentiment came in weaker than expectations with the index moving to 71.8 from 73.0 preliminary, but was up from 70.5 last month. Inflation readings were mixed with the one-year inflation expectations remaining study a 2.6% versus the preliminary lower than the 2.7% last month. However the five-year inflation expectations rose to 3.2% from 3.0% last month.

Canada retail sales data for September came in and is expected 0.4% for the headline number but was expected 0.9% orders. The estimate for October came in fairly solid 0.7%.

Yields were mixed today with the shorter end higher and the longer end lower flattening the yield curve

• 2-year yield 4.377%, +20 basis points
• 5-year yield 4.305%, +0.2 basis points
• 10-year yield 4.414%, -1 point basis points
• 30-year yield referred 90%, -2.3 basis points
• 2-10 year spread is down -3.6 bps at 3.9 basis points
• 2-30 year spread is also down -2.8 bps at 22.4 basis point

Bitcoin reached another record level with the price reaching a $99,800 just to hundred dollars short of Bitcoin $100K. The digital currency that never sleeps will be eying the $100K level over the weekend. For the week, the price is up $9290.

Thank you for the support this week. Adam is back on Monday from the Finance Magnate conference in London.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

• Dow industrial average rose 426 points or 0.97% at 44296
• S&P index rose 20.63 points or 0.35% it 5969.34
• NASDAQ index rose 31.23 points or 0.16% at 19003.65
• Russell 2000 rose 42.65 points or 1.80% at 2406.67

For the trading week:

• Dow Industrial average rose 2.0%
• S&P index rose 1.7%
• NASDAQ index rose 1.74%
• Russell 2000 surged by 4.52%

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The USD/CHF pair, after trading within a range of 0.8400 to 0.8550 through late August and October, transitioned from consolidation into a trending phase. This shift began as prices broke through key levels in a step-by-step manner, marking the transition from non-trend to trend.

Last week, the price moved above the 50% midpoint of the move down from the April high at 0.87989, and the 200 day MA at 0.88298. The price reached a target area near 0.8914 to 0.8923 and backed off into the close last Friday.

Early this week, the pair moved lower initially, breaking below the 200-day moving average at 0.88298 and reaching the 50% retracement of the decline from the April high at 0.87989, near the natural support at 0.8800. At this level, sellers turned into buyers, driving a reversal higher.

The price rebounded above the 200-day moving average midweek, retested it on Wednesday, and subsequently built momentum to the upside once again. This upward move, supported by broader dollar strength and weaker European currencies, pushed the pair above the 61.8% retracement of the April high at 0.8899 and a swing area between 0.8914 and 0.8923, which now serves as immediate support zones. Staying above 0.8900 maintains a bullish outlook, with further upside likely into the new trading week. The next major target lies around the psychological 0.9000 level.

Conversely, if the price breaks below 0.8900, along with the lower bound of the swing area at 0.8880, a move back toward the 200-day moving average at 0.88208 becomes a possibility. For now, the pair’s direction hinges on whether it can hold above these key support levels or retrace toward lower technical targets.

——————————————–

USD/CHF Technical Analysis

The USD/CHF pair transitioned from a consolidation phase to a trending phase, breaking through key levels in a step-by-step manner.

Key Levels:

• Support: 0.8900, 0.8880 (lower bound of swing area)

• Resistance: 0.9000 (psychological level)

• Lower support at the 200-day Moving Average: 0.88208 and 50% retracement at 0.87989 (all it 0.8800)

Trading Strategy:

• Staying above 0.8900 maintains a bullish outlook.

• Break below 0.8900 and 0.8880 could lead to a move toward the 200-day moving average.

• Next major target above 0.8900 is above and below 0.9000 level.

Current Situation:

The pair has built momentum to the upside, pushing above the 61.8% retracement of the April high and a swing area between 0.8914 and 0.8923. The direction now hinges on whether it can hold above key support levels.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

• Oil rigs, up 1 to 479
• Natural gas rigs down -2 to 99
• Total rigs for the week down 1 to 583

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Novak had graduated from being Russia’s energy minister to deputy prime minister but he is still very much involved with OPEC+ matters. In the meeting today, he basically just reaffirmed the partnership between Russia and OPEC. Adding that:

„Russia will continue to be a key player in the oil market, maintaining its status as a reliable supplier. The OPEC+ member countries are in constant contact, monitor the market situation and are ready to flexibly and promptly respond to any changes in market conditions. The current mechanism for implementing the OPEC+ Agreement is the most effective tool for maximizing the efficiency of oil production and state revenues.“

OPEC is also out with a statement saying that the meeting highlights „the important partnership between the Russian Federation and OPEC at all levels“. It looks like this pact will continue for a while more.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Overall, we’ve seen a
rangebound price action in the US Dollar this week as the market’s pricing
remained largely unchanged due to the lack of catalysts at three rate cuts by
the end of 2025.

This morning, we saw some
strong bids in the greenback entirely due to the weak Eurozone
PMIs as the flows in the pair spilled over to other markets.

On the EUR side, the
probabilities for a 50 bps cut in December rose to 63% from 26% before the PMIs.
By the end of 2025, the market sees a total of 142 bps of easing.

EURUSD Technical
Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that EURUSD broke through the key support zone around the 1.05 handle yesterday and
extended the drop into the 1.0335 level this morning on weak Eurozone PMIs.

From a risk management
perspective, the sellers will have a better risk to reward setup around the previous
support
now turned resistance. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the
price rising back above the 1.05 handle to invalidate the bearish setup and
position for a rally into the major trendline.

EURUSD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have another downward trendline now defining the current bearish
momentum. If we were to get a pullback, the sellers will likely lean on it to
position for a drop into new lows, while the buyers will look for a break
higher to pile in for a rally into the major trendline.

EURUSD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have a minor resistance zone around the 1.06 handle. This is where
the sellers keep on stepping in to target the break below the 1.05 handle. The
buyers, on the other hand, will need the price to break higher to start
targeting new highs. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming
Catalysts

Today we conclude the week with the US PMIs.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.