Fundamental
Overview

Overall, we’ve seen a
rangebound price action in the US Dollar this week as the market’s pricing
remained largely unchanged at three rate cuts by the end of 2025 for the Fed.

This morning, we saw some
strong bids in the greenback due to the weak Eurozone PMIs as the flows there spilled
over to other markets.

On the CHF side, nothing
has changed as the market continues to price a 72% chance of a 25 bps cut in
December and a total of 70 bps of easing by the end of 2025.

USDCHF
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that USDCHF spiked back to the recent high around the 0.8915 level following
the weak Eurozone PMIs. From a risk management perspective, the buyers will
have a better risk to reward setup around the major upward trendline to position for a rally into the 0.9050
level next. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking
below the trendline to start targeting new lows.

USDCHF Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the upward spike this morning into the recent highs. This is
where we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the high
to position for a drop into the major trendline. The buyers, on the other hand,
will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into
the 0.9050 level next.

USDCHF Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we now have a minor upward trendline defining the current bullish
momentum into the high. If we were to get a pullback, the buyers will likely
lean on it to position for a break above the recent highs. The sellers, on the
other hand, will look for a break lower to increase the bearish bets into the
major trendline. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming
Catalysts

Today we conclude the week with the US PMIs.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Capitalize, one of the leading proprietary trading firms,
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About Capitalize

Capitalize (https://prop-capitalize.com) is a
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This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

Equities have now taken a turn lower on the session with European indices seeing red for the most part now. The DAX is now down 0.5% and CAC 40 down 0.8% after the more positive start to the day here. Meanwhile, US futures have also dipped lower with S&P 500 futures down 0.4% on the day.

Besides the softer PMI data from the euro area and UK, there’s not much else to drive the latest changes in equities. And even with traders now saying that the ECB might very well have to move quicker in December, it’s not providing much comfort for European stocks.

The drop lower isn’t just limited to tech shares as well. Dow futures are also now down by 0.3% on the day.

And the more cautious developments here are just adding to the case for EUR/CHF to potentially break to fresh record lows, with the pair already down 0.4% to 0.9250 currently. The low right after the PMI data earlier was 0.9203

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The missile was reportedly fired from Astrakhan and targeted critical infrastructure in the central Ukrainian city of Dnipro. The city was also hit by other strikes involving several cruise missiles and a medium range ballistic missile.

Going back to the ICBM, it would be the first that such a long range weapon has been used in the conflict between the two countries. So far, Moscow has just said that they have „nothing to say on this topic“.

The ongoing tensions here have added something extra to the flows in markets this week. There were some safety bids earlier in the week but if anything else, it is at least propping up oil prices again. WTI crude is seen up 2% today to touch $70 again.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental
Overview

The US Dollar continues to
consolidate despite the higher-than-expected inflation figures and a less
dovish Powell last week. The market’s pricing remained largely unchanged at
three rate cuts by the end of 2025.

This is generally a signal
that the market is fine with the current pricing, and we would need stronger
reasons to price out the remaining rate cuts. This could lead to some general
US Dollar weakness in the short term.

On the GBP side, this week
we got the UK CPI report with the data coming in higher than
expected. This saw the market strengthening the chances of no change at the
December BoE meeting but overall the pricing remained unchanged around 67 bps
of easing by the end of 2025.

GBPUSD
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that GBPUSD continues to consolidate near the major upward trendline. This is where the buyers are
stepping in with a defined risk below the trendline to position for a rally
into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price
breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into new lows.

GBPUSD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that the pair looks to be bottoming out here and we might see a pullback
into the major downward trendline. The buyers will want to see the price
breaking above the 1.27 handle to gain more conviction, while the sellers will
likely lean on that level to target the break below the upward trendline.

GBPUSD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that the price action has been mostly rangebound since last Thursday as
that’s when the bullish momentum in the US Dollar stalled. There’s not much we
can add here as the buyers will look for a break above the 1.27 handle, while
the sellers will target a break below the trendline. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming
Catalysts

Today we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures, while tomorrow we conclude
the week with the UK and the US PMIs.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

• Approach to rate cuts must be gradual
• But if December projections confirm baseline scenario, there will be room to cut rates

This just reaffirms their current policy path and a very likely 25 bps rate cut next month.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

DegenLayer, a newly launched memecoin focused blockchain
& trading terminal app suite, has announced its testnet release, marking a
key step toward its upcoming mainnet launch. The platform aims to facilitate
zero setup memecoin trading and creation, leveraging the $20 billion liquidity
within the Optimism Superchain ecosystem.

The project’s developers project daily revenues of $1
million in ETH, assuming a daily DEX trading volume of $200 million. With low
transaction fees and a streamlined user interface, DegenLayer seeks to provide
a gateway for mainstream users to engage in blockchain-based trading and
creation.

The project’s native token $DELAY was fair launched on
Uniswap last week, and is set to be listed on one of the top 15
CoinGecko-ranked exchanges next week, providing access to the token to their 10
million+ user community.

The project is powered by a 60+ person team behind notable
successes including PunksClub.io the CryptoPunk social network, Music.com
(developed with Pharrell Williams), and AAA games like The Witcher 3 and Dying
Light 2. The founding team previously achieved remarkable success with
SuperBid, driving token value from $0.01 to $12 in 2021.

„Our proven track record in both Web3 and gaming
demonstrates our ability to deliver compelling user experiences,“ says
Jacob Rylko, Co-Founder & CEO. „With DegenLayer, we’re leveraging our
existing reach of 3 million+ users through our Telegram mini-app, Firecoin, to
accelerate adoption.“

Key features and projections:

• Innovative
  „Pump Technology“ with 50% of revenue allocated to viral user
  rewards, $DELAY and memecoin buybacks
• Viral
  referral program projecting $100,000 daily reward distributions
• Seamless
  integration with Telegram’s 1B+ user base via a mini app
• One-click
  memecoin creation and trading interface for non-crypto users
• Transaction
  fees below $0.01 with 2,000 TPS capacity

DegenLayer’s launch represents a significant milestone in
making memecoin trading accessible to mainstream users while leveraging
established Optimism infrastructure, the same that is used by Coinbase’s BASE
Layer 2.

About DegenLayer

DegenLayer is a trading terminal and Ethereum Layer 2
blockchain designed to make memecoin trading accessible to mainstream users.
Built on Optimism technology, the platform offers low-cost, high-speed
transactions and a zero setup interface for memecoin trading and creation.
Backed by a team with expertise in Web3, gaming, and entertainment, DegenLayer
aims to bring innovative blockchain solutions to the global market.

For more information about DegenLayer and its revolutionary
approach to memecoin trading, users can visit https://degenlayer.wtf.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

Arcana Network is thrilled to announce the launch of the
Arcana Wallet Beta, now available on the Chrome Store, setting a new standard
in blockchain accessibility and user experience through its pioneering Chain
Abstraction Protocol. Built as the first Externally Owned Account (EOA) wallet
to leverage Chain Abstraction, Arcana Wallet enables a frictionless,
multi-chain experience where users can spend assets across Ethereum, Base,
Polygon, Arbitrum, and Optimism seamlessly, with 20+ new chains coming soon.

Unified Balance: Spend your assets held across chains, in
1-click, without bridging

Arcana Wallet offers a range of features designed to
eliminate fragmentation and provide users with streamlined access to
decentralized finance. Through Arcana’s Chain Abstraction protocol, users can
now manage their aggregated USDC, USDT, and ETH balances across multiple
networks, all in a single wallet interface, and spend these funds instantly on
any supported chain without the need for bridging.

“At Arcana, our goal is to reimagine blockchain usability by
abstracting the complexities that come with multi-chain interactions. Arcana
Wallet delivers an intuitive and effortless experience that allows users to
engage with dApps across chains, without technical barriers” said Mayur
Relekar, Founder & CEO of Arcana Network.

Key Features of Arcana Wallet

• Unified
  Balances: Arcana Wallet aggregates assets into a single balance across
  supported chains, allowing seamless spending without bridging. For
  example, users holding USDT on Arbitrum and Optimism see a combined
  balance ready to spend on Polygon or Base.
• EOA
  Wallet-Based Orchestration: Users can bring their existing EOA address
  or create a new one, ensuring self-custody. Funds stay in the user’s
  wallet, without locking up or requiring deposits to another address,
  maintaining asset security and cross-app accessibility.
• Universal
  Address Accessibility: Unlike wallets needing app-specific setups,
  Arcana Wallet retains assets within one wallet, making them accessible
  across all apps—even those without native chain abstraction support.
• Efficient
  Gas Payments: Gas fees can be auto-funded in stablecoins (USDT or
  USDC), eliminating the need to hold native tokens on each chain. Arcana’s
  optimised protocol keeps gas fees up to 10X lower than traditional
  solutions that use smart contract accounts.
• Near-Instant
  Cross-Chain Transactions: Arcana Wallet’s architecture allows
  transactions to execute within seconds, making it one of the fastest
  cross-chain transaction tools available. Users can spend assets on
  multiple chains with one-click transactions, benefiting from improved
  liquidity and usability.

Expanding dApp and Chain Compatibility

At its Beta launch, Arcana Wallet supports popular dApps,
including Uniswap, Aave, Polymarket, Hyperliquid, and Jumper, with
compatibility for additional applications and chains on the horizon. From
currently supporting Ethereum, Base, Polygon, Optimism, and Arbitrum, the
protocol aims to scale support to +20 EVM and non-EVM L1s, L2s, and appchains.
Allowing users to manage funds from any of the integrated networks, it will
mark a significant step toward a unified blockchain ecosystem.

Arcana’s Chain Abstraction SDK

To cater the developer community, Arcana Network is also
launching the Chain Abstraction SDK, enabling developers to implement Arcana’s
Chain Abstraction features in their own dApps. The SDK is intended to provide a
versatile toolkit for developers to build chainless user experiences and
simplify blockchain interactions for end users, helping to grow Arcana’s vision
of a unified Web3 UX.

Joining the Arcana Community

As the Arcana Wallet Beta moves through its Testnet phase,
feedback from users and partners will help shape the next generation of
blockchain interactions.

Users can download Arcana Wallet from the Chrome Store and
experience the power of Chain Abstraction.

About Arcana Network

Arcana Network (https://arcana.network/) is a leading Chain
Abstraction Protocol, powered by an Appchain, with the mission to transform the
Web3 UX.

Since its inception in 2021, Arcana Network has introduced
products that make web3 effortless, with more than 4 million wallets generated,
500,000 active users, and 6 million transactions to date. The upcoming Chain
Abstraction Protocol built on a Cosmos Appchain and powered by $XAR, is the
next evolution in simplifying Web3.

$XAR is the utility token that captures protocol fees,
secures the network, incentivises early adopters, and rewards resource
providers.

Arcana Network’s innovative technology is backed by
prominent investors, including Balaji S., Polygon founders, John Lilic,
Santiago Roel, and investment funds such as Woodstock, Fenbushi, Republic,
Polygon Ventures, DCG, LD Capital and others.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental
Overview

Last week, we got a
pullback in the S&P 500 as the higher than expected inflation readings and
a less dovish Powell weighed a bit on the market.

Despite the recent events
though, the market’s pricing remained largely unchanged at three rate cuts by
the end of 2025. This might be a signal that the market is now fine with the
current pricing, and we will need stronger reasons to price out the remaining
rate cuts.

The only bearish reason we
had for the stock market was the rise in Treasury yields. That’s generally
bearish only when the Fed is tightening policy though not when yields rise on positive
growth expectations.

Right now, the Fed’s
reaction function is that a strong economy would warrant an earlier pause in
the easing cycle and not a tightening. That should still be supportive for the
stock market in the bigger picture considering that Trump’s policies include
tax cuts and deregulation.

If the Fed’s reaction
function changes to a potential tightening, then that will likely trigger a big
correction in the stock market on expected economic slowdown.

For now, the pullbacks look
as something healthy and opportunities to buy the dips.

S&P 500
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that the S&P 500 dropped below the 5918 support level but bounced back a couple of days later
as the dip-buyers took advantage. As long as the price stays above the 5918
level, we can expect the buyers to pile in to position for a rally into a new
all-time high. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price falling
back below the support to target a test of the trendline.

S&P 500 Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the choppy price action around the 5918 level as the market
continues to wait for catalysts to push into either direction. There’s not much
else we can glean from this timeframe although the 5918 level will likely act
as a barometer for the sentiment.

S&P 500 Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have another minor support around the 5930 level. If we get a
pullback, the buyers will likely step in around those level with a defined risk
below them to position for a rally into a new all-time high. The sellers, on
the other hand, will look for a break lower to target a drop into the major trendline.
The red lines define the average daily range for today

Upcoming
Catalysts

Tomorrow, we
get the latest US Jobless Claims figures, while on Friday we conclude the week
with the US PMIs.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

That’s a bit problematic for the ECB as pay growth is seen accelerating once again. That is unlikely to put off a December rate cut though as the wages data here hasn’t really translated to any significant reacceleration in consumer prices. So, the hope for policymakers is that wage pressures should fade going into next year. But we’ll see.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.