NZDUSD Technical Analysis – The lack of catalysts keeps the market rangebound 0 (0)

Fundamental
Overview

The US Dollar continues to
consolidate despite the higher-than-expected inflation figures and a less
dovish Powell last week. The market’s pricing remained largely unchanged at
three rate cuts by the end of 2025.

This might be a signal that
the market is now fine with the current pricing, and we will need stronger
reasons to price out the remaining rate cuts. This could lead to some general
US Dollar weakness in the short term.

On the NZD side, the market
is pricing an 80% chance of a 50 bps cut at the upcoming meeting and a total of
142 bps of easing by the end of 2025. Inflation is back in the RBNZ’s target
range, so the central bank can focus on growth now especially with the unemployment
rate continuing to climb.

NZDUSD
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that NZDUSD bounced from the key support
around the 0.5850 level and rallied into the major trendline
where we got some rejection as the sellers stepped back in. The buyers will
want to see the price breaking above the trendline to increase the bullish bets
into the 0.6050 resistance, while the sellers will look for a break below the
0.5850 support to target the 0.5773 low.

NZDUSD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that the price rejected the swing low level at 0.5912 near the major
trendline as the sellers stepped in with a defined risk above the trendline to
target the break below the 0.5850 support. There’s not much else we can add here
as the buyers will need a break above the trendline to gain more conviction for
further upside.

NZDUSD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have a minor support zone around the 0.5780 level. This is where we
can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the support to
position for the break above the major trendline with a better risk to reward setup.
The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase
the bearish bets into new lows. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming
Catalysts

Tomorrow,
we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures, while on Friday we conclude the
week with the US PMIs.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

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Take on the Prop Trading Challenge with Ultimate Traders 0 (0)

Proprietary (prop) trading as a concept has
experienced a huge surge in popularity over recent years, developing into an
established way of trading for many across the world, while ushering in a new
era in terms of how trades are conducted.

For the many companies now operating within
the sector, prop traders are typically expected to pass a lengthy, multi-level
evaluation process before being deemed appropriate to proceed to the funded
account stage.

This can lead to intense frustration from
some participants, particularly skilled or experienced ones, who end up finding
themselves caught up in a cycle of repetitive evaluations that can negatively
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Ultimate Traders tackles this problem head on,
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as part of its ‘Speedy Challenge’ – meaning competent traders can kickstart
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The
speedy way to account funding

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Designed for experienced, disciplined
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The Speedy Challenge offers quicker access to
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Unlocking
the Speedy Challenge benefits

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Ultimate
Traders’ trading rules

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This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

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Dollar holds firmer in European morning trade 0 (0)

After a bit of a pause in the last few days, the dollar is starting to flex its muscles once again. The greenback is sitting atop the major currencies bloc, now extending gains across the board on the day. USD/JPY already traded a little higher earlier but now other dollar pairs are catching up. EUR/USD is currently seen down by 0.4% to 1.0556:

The pair did break below its 100-hour moving average (red line) yesterday but it owed to risk-off flows, arguably driven by geopolitical headlines. That reversed course later in the day but now, we’re seeing steady flows to nudge the pair back below the key near-term level again.

Hold below that and sellers will reestablish a more bearish near-term bias in the pair. So, that’s a key technical development to be mindful of.

Elsewhere, USD/JPY is now up 0.7% to 155.80 while AUD/USD is down 0.4% to 0.6510 on the day. The dollar is seen firming here as bond yields are also pushing higher. 10-year Treasury yields are now up over 4 bps on the day to 4.42% on the session.

Are we starting to swing back to the post-election momentum after catching a breather?

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

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GBPUSD Technical Analysis – The market needs more to push into new lows 0 (0)

Fundamental
Overview

Last week, despite the higher-than-expected
inflation figures and a less dovish Powell, the US Dollar couldn’t extend the
gains. The market’s pricing remained largely unchanged at three rate cuts by
the end of 2025.

This might be a signal that
the market is now fine with the current pricing, and we will need stronger
reasons to price out the remaining rate cuts. This could open the door for some
pullbacks and general US Dollar weakness.

On the GBP side, tomorrow
we get the UK CPI report. Last time, the UK inflation data missed expectations by a big
margin with services inflation dropping to 4.9% from 5.6% in the prior month.

In the meantime, we’ve got
a soft labour market report and a lower than expected GDP print. The market is currently
pricing just a 22% probability of another 25 bps cut in December, but that will
likely increase if we were to get another miss in the CPI data.

GBPUSD
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that GBPUSD is consolidating near the major upward trendline. This is where we can expect the
buyers to step in with a defined risk below the trendline to position for a
rally into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the
price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into new lows.

GBPUSD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that the pair looks to be bottoming out here and we might see a pullback
into the major downward trendline. The buyers will want to see the price
breaking above the 1.27 handle to gain more conviction, while the sellers will
likely lean on that level to target the break below the upward trendline.

GBPUSD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that the price action has been mostly rangebound since last Thursday as
that’s when the bullish momentum in the US Dollar stalled. There’s not much we
can add here as the buyers will look for a break above the 1.27 handle, while
the sellers will target a break below the trendline. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming
Catalysts

Tomorrow we have the UK CPI report. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless
Claims figures, while on Friday we conclude the week with the UK and US Flash
PMIs.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

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BoE’s Lombardelli: I see risks to inflation on both sides 0 (0)

  • I see risks to inflation on both sides.
  • We have seen a fall in services inflation and wage settlements.
  • Minimum wage comes up as pressure for businesses more than any other pressure.
  • I am more concerned about upside risks to inflation as costs are higher if inflation gets entrenched.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

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BoE’s Mann: Forward-looking indicators raising the risk of inflation persistence 0 (0)

  • Forward-looking price and wage indicators have been flat and above target for four months, raising the risk of inflation persistence.
  • Financial markets‘ inflation expectations suggest the BoE will not get to a sustainable 2% inflation in the forecast horizon.
  • Risks to inflation are almost all upside.
  • I do not use gradual language on rate cuts.
  • I prefer activist strategy on monetary policy.
  • It’s important to keep rates on hold, and not pursue a gradualist strategy on rate cuts.
  • The current stance on monetary policy is not particularly restrictive.
  • Gradualism causes inflation persistence to drag on for longer.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

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BoE’s Taylor: Gradual cuts implies 100 bps of easing over the next year 0 (0)

  • It’s ok to continue with a gradual pace of rate cuts.
  • Gradual cuts implies 100 bps of easing over the next year.
  • This is closely aligned with market curve currently.
  • That is not necessarily what will unfold, depending on economic conditions.
  • There are conditions where the BoE can go faster.
  • Labour market data is key for my view on rate cuts.
  • Disinflation is unfolding as we would expect.
  • QE is a tool that needs to be there for a crisis.
  • QT is moving the BoE in a healthy direction compared to the past.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

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USDCAD Technical Analysis – We are at the highest level since 2020 0 (0)

Fundamental
Overview

Last week, despite the
higher-than-expected inflation figures and a less dovish Powell, the US Dollar
couldn’t extend the gains. The market’s pricing remained largely unchanged at
three rate cuts by the end of 2025.

This might be a signal that
the market is now fine with the current pricing, and we will need stronger
reasons to price out the remaining rate cuts. This could open the door for some
pullbacks and general US Dollar weakness.

On the CAD side, we have
the Canadian CPI tomorrow. The market is pricing a 33% chance of another 50 bps
cut at the upcoming meeting. Higher than expected readings might increase the
chances of a 25 bps move and provide a relief rally.

Conversely, lower than
expected figures will likely increase the probabilities for a 50 bps cut and
weigh a bit on the CAD although it might not trigger too much weakness at this
point.

USDCAD
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that USDCAD eventually broke through the 2-year high and extended the rally
into the 1.41 handle. From a risk management perspective, the buyers will have
a better risk to reward setup around the previous resistance
now turned support
at roughly 1.40 where we can also find a trendline
for confluence.
The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to
invalidate the breakout and position for a drop back into the 1.36 handle.

USDCAD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have another minor upward trendline defining the current bullish
momentum. If we were to get a pullback, we can expect the buyers to lean on the
trendline to position for a rally into new highs, while the sellers will look
for a break lower to target the major trendline.

USDCAD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we
have yet another upward trendline defining the bullish momentum on this
timeframe. The buyers will keep on leaning on it to target new highs, while the
sellers will look for a break lower to target the next trendlines. The red
lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming
Catalysts

This
week is pretty empty on the data front with the most important releases
scheduled for the latter part of the week. On Thursday, we get the latest US
Jobless Claims figures, while on Friday we conclude the week with the US Flash PMIs.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

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ECB’s Makhlouf: The evidence would need to be overwhelming for 50 bps move in December 0 (0)

  • Believes in cautious and prudent approach, policy is working as it is
  • It would be „going a bit far“ to say that a rate cut in December is „in the bag“
  • We are going meeting by meeting
  • Let’s see what the data tells us but reasonable to assume we are on a downwards trajectory on rates

Again, it reinforces the notion that it is safe to think that the ECB will cut rates again in December, barring any major surprises. As for the magnitude of the move, they might be leaning more towards a 25 bps one for the time being at least.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

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