Looking at the details, the drop here is largely driven by a decline in capital goods (-3.8%) and energy production (-1.5%). The former is seen declining back after a surge higher in August (+3.8%). The declines for the month are partially offset by increases in output for durable consumer goods (+0.5%) and non-durable consumer goods (+1.6%). The production for intermediate goods was flat on the month.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
No changes to the initial estimates as this just reaffirms more modest growth in the euro area in Q3. But this is old news, as the focus is on the outlook next year with Trump tariffs set to come into the picture.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
The picture in the major currencies space is not much changed at all from over five hours ago here. There have been some light extension of the ranges but overall, it’s more or less where we left off at the end of Asia trading. The dollar continues to stay more poised on the week, keeping its post-election momentum.
As mentioned earlier, USD/JPY and EUR/USD are two of the more interesting pairs as they are nearing key technical junctures.
The former is taking a run at the 155.00 mark for the first time since the end of July. On a firm break above the key level, there is little to no technical resistance in that pocket until the 160.00 level.
As for EUR/USD, the pair is down to test the 1.0600 mark with the April low of 1.0601 in play. For now, large option expiries at 1.0600 is also adding another defensive layer. But all of this is tentative up until we get to the US CPI report later.
That will be the next key risk event to watch with a stronger report potentially stirring up further dollar gains and a trigger to breach the technical levels above.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
The puzzling weakness in
the US Dollar following Trump’s victory looks more and more like it was just a
“sell the fact” reaction. The greenback is now back in the driving seat, and we
might have also seen some pre-positioning in the past couple of days into a
potentially hot US CPI report today.
At the latest Fed’s decision,
Fed Chair Powell said that they expect bumps on inflation and that one or two
bad data months on inflation won’t change the process. This keeps the 25 bps
cut in December in place even if we get higher inflation readings.
The market though is
forward-looking, and the rise in Treasury yields showed that the market sees
risks to the inflation outlook. Moreover, the red sweep could increase those
fears if the progress on inflation stalls, or worse, reverses.
The market might have
already assigned some premium to a higher than expected print, so there’s some
risk of a short-term „sell the fact“ reaction on a higher than
expected number.
It goes without saying that
a bigger than expected upside surprise should see the momentum increasing
immediately with the US Dollar likely rallying across the board and Treasury
yields shooting higher.
On the other hand, a soft
print will likely see the US Dollar and Treasury yields falling, although one
can argue that it’s just going to provide a pullback to go long the US Dollar
and short bonds again at even better levels as future conditions will likely
see inflation getting stuck above the target or even moving back higher.
USDCAD
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, we can
see that USDCAD is once again back at the 2-year high amid USD strength. The
buyers will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets
into new highs, while the sellers will look for a rejection to position for a
drop back into the 1.38 handle.
USDCAD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have a strong support zone around the 1.3825 level where the price
got rejected from several times in the past weeks. We may now have a range
between the 1.3825 level and the 1.3950 level. The market participants will
continue to play the range until we get a breakout on either side.
USDCAD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, there’s
not much else we can add here as the rangebound price action makes all the
technical levels between the main support and resistance zones pretty weak. The
red lines define the average daily range for today.
Upcoming
Catalysts
Today, we have the US CPI report. Tomorrow, we get the latest US Jobless
Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US Retail Sales data.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
As mentioned, she’s arguably the most hawkish member on the policy committee. So, these comments need to be taken with that in consideration. Her comments are also reflected by her bank rate vote last week here, as she was the only member to dissent against the rate cut decision.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
For some context, these subsidies did come to an end in May but were reinstated in August through to October to cope with the warmer weather. Subsequently, they were continued until this year-end but the funds had to be drawn from reserves in the budget for the fiscal year that started in April.
NHK is now reporting that the government is considering keeping these subsidies from January through to March next year. Amid a higher cost of living in key populated areas such as Tokyo, the measure above is mainly to try and combat rising consumer prices.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
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This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
The MSTR stock did nothing for almost two decades! Imagine investing in it early and waiting 20 years to get a return.
If you want to have conviction in your ideas, you need to know what moves your stocks and position for that change.
In the book “The New Market Wizards”, Stanley Druckenmiller said this in response to the question of how he evaluates stocks:
“When I first started out, I did very thorough papers covering every aspect of a stock or industry. Before I could make the presentation to the stock selection committee, I first had to submit the paper to the research director.“
„I particularly remember the time I gave him my paper on the banking industry. I felt very proud of my work. However, he read through it and said, This is useless. What makes the stock go up and down? That comment acted as a spur.“
„Thereafter, I focused my analysis on seeking to identify the factors that were strongly correlated to a stock’s price movement as opposed to looking at all the fundamentals. Frankly, even today, many analysts still don’t know what makes their particular stocks go up and down.”
His number one advice? Do not invest in the present. The present does not move stock prices. Change moves them.
MicroStrategy is basically a Bitcoin play, so you just need to know where Bitcoin is going to trade MSTR stock. No valuation analysis needed.
The catalyst for the latest rally? Trump’s victory.
This is why waiting for the right catalysts is paramount. Not only does it tell you WHEN to trade, but it also gives you an IMMEDIATE feedback on whether you are right or
wrong.
That helps with knowing when to bet more and when to get out to keep your drawdown low.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.