• Canada October employment change +14.5K vs +25.0K expected
• UMich November prelim consumer sentiment 73.0 vs 71.0 expected
• Baker Hughes oil rigs 479 unchanged on the week
• Trump asks Robert Lighthizer to run trade policy again
• BOE’s Pill: There is scope fore more rate cuts if disinflation continues

Markets:

• S&P 500 up 0.4%
• WTI crude oil down $1.88 to $70.48
• Gold down $24 to $2683
• US 10-year yields down 4 bps to 4.30%
• JPY leads, AUD lags

China set the table for US markets on Friday as the stimulus announcements disappointed, leading to a 5.5% decline in US-listed China ETFs and a slump in the Australian dollar that worsened through the day. Worries about China growth also likely weighed on oil prices and dragged yields lower on less inflationary pressure.

The long end of the yield curve has now retraced the post-election jump and that’s part of the ongoing theme in markets, something I would call „he didn’t really mean it“, in regards to tariffs, mass deportations and other inflationary policies. The market is instead focusing on an agenda that would look like Trump 1.0, whether tariffs were threatened and sometimes imposed but nothing even close to what he campaigned on. That’s understandable given that very few politicians deliver on campaign rhetoric anywhere.

The US dollar climbed (ex yen) despite the falling yields. Part of that was because the front-end moved up slightly but the euro selling was notable as it slumped to 1.0700 in US trading from 1.0775 at the start of the day, the pound also came under moderate pressure. Commodity currencies also struggled.

Overall, different markets are sorting through different themes and challenges right now. It was an historical week, so that’s understandable and it will continue next week, so rest up and have a great weekend.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

I wrote about Paulson earlier in the week and emphasized that he’s a major gold bull. Now, I don’t know that he’s going to advocate adding to US gold reserve but he’s certainly not going to advocate for selling them.

Meanwhile, in the irony of ironies, Bessent is a George Soros acolyte and worked from him from 1991 to 2000 (a time of the famous pound bet) then returning in 2011 to spend four years as chief investment officer.

The deep state always wins, but it’s also a win for an FX guy.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

In the videos below, I take a technical look at all the major currencies vs the USD. What is the bias and what would move the bias the other way? Support? Resistance? What are the targets?

I look at all the key technicals in play for each of the major currency pairs i the below videos.

EURUSD

GBPUSD

USDJPY:

USDCHF:

USDCAD:

AUDUSD:

NZDUSD:

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

• S&P 500 +0.4% – record close
• Nasdaq Comp +0.1%
• DJIA +0.6%
• Russell 2000 +0.7%
• Toronto TSX Comp -0.4%

Closing changes on the week:

• S&P 500 +4.7%
• Nasdaq Comp +5.7%
• Russell 2000 +8.6%
• Toronto TSX Comp +2.1%

Congratulations to everyone who held stocks through the election. The red sweep no doubt helped by I’ve argued many, many times that the trade on elections everywhere is always to buy the uncertainty, because the sun always rises the day after the vote.

The outperformance of the Russell 2000 comes down to:

1. It’s bank-heavy and the assumption is that Republicans will loosen banking regulations
2. It’s more domestic-focused and that should benefit from lower tax rates while not being hit as hard by tariffs

Notably, the Russell 2000 hasn’t hit a record and faces some resistance to get there. It will be a good spot to watch in the weeks ahead.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The US Dollar is now lower
across the board as the market erased most of the greenback’s gains following
Trump’s victory. This has been a puzzling reaction as Trump’s policies are
likely to spur growth and potentially end the Fed’s easing cycle earlier than
expected.

We can argue that the
market was already positioned for a Trump’s victory as we saw the greenback
rallying for a couple of weeks leading into the US election. So, this might
just be a “sell the fact” reaction and the market might now need more to keep
bidding the USD.

Another possible
explanation is that the market is more focused on global growth now and that’s
generally bearish for the greenback. We saw something similar in 2016 when the
USD rallied strongly once Trump got elected but after a couple of months, it went
into a 2-year long downtrend.

The Fed for now remains
neutral and on track to keep cutting rates. Yesterday, they cut by 25 bps as expected and given the overall neutral
message, the market expects another 25 bps cut in December. Strong data from
now until the December meeting though could change their plans for 2025.

We have the US CPI report
next week and that’s going to be a test. If the US Dollar sells off on hot
data, then the market might be indeed focusing on global growth rather than the
potential for an earlier pause in the Fed’s easing cycle.

NZDUSD
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that NZDUSD after a spike lower on Trump’s victory, reversed higher to test
the key resistance
zone around the 0.6050 level. This is where the sellers are stepping in to
position for a drop into the 0.5850 level next. The buyers, on the other hand,
will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into
the 0.6217 resistance next.

NZDUSD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the recent price action with the price rejecting the key
resistance zone. There’s not much more we can add here so we need to zoom in to
see some more details.

NZDUSD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have an upward trendline
defining the current bullish momentum and a support zone around the 0.5975
level where we can also find the 61.8% Fibonacci
retracement level for confluence.

If the price gets there, we
can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the trendline to
position for the break above the resistance. The sellers, on the other hand,
will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into new
lows. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming
Catalysts

Today we conclude the week with the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
report.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

On the revision, Barclays cites the BOE’s more cautious tone that emphasised uncertainty and gradual policy moves.

„The main messaging from the press conference was repeated emphasis on the extent of uncertainty at the current juncture: uncertainty around the impact of the fiscal package; uncertainty on the current state of the labour market.“

Adding that the emphasis on „gradualism“ means the central bank is to keep the bank rate unchanged in December. That as the uncertainty surrounding all of the issues above are not likely to go away any time soon.

Looking to next year though, Barclays sees the BOE cutting by 25 bps in February, May, June, August, and September, taking the terminal rate to 3.50%.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The post-election trade in the dollar hasn’t been too straightforward over the last two days to say the least. The greenback saw gains abate yesterday but is looking to recover back some ground again in trading today. But even then, it isn’t that convincing with the dollar lagging against the yen and franc on the day.

The former owes to lower Treasury yields, with 10-year yields dipping back by another 4 bps to 4.30% currently. It’s still at a high point compared to where we were before October but on the week itself, yields are pretty much flat now. So, that is also one reason why the dollar has struggled to follow through with gains.

But as a whole today, dollar bulls are looking to test the waters again. EUR/USD is down 0.3% to 1.0770 though large option expiries are also in play, potentially boxing in price action for now. Meanwhile, GBP/USD is down 0.3% to 1.2950 and USD/CAD up 0.3% to 1.3895 currently.

The laggards are the antipodeans and that owes to softer sentiment surrounding China as well. AUD/USD is down 0.6% to 0.6635 with sellers looking to make a play again on the technical side of things:

The rebound yesterday fell just short of contesting the 100-day moving average (red line). And sellers are now driving price back lower to test the 200-day moving average (blue line) at 0.6628. Break back below that and the bias in the pair will return to being more bearish once again.

As much as Trump’s election win has reignited the dollar flames again, a lot will also depend on bond market developments.

So far, traders are not really extending the higher jump in yields since October. And that is keeping the dollar at bay from rampaging across the board. But perhaps there is a case that we might be settling into a new regime of higher US yields from here.

And if so, that will allow the dollar to flex its muscles later on once traders get settled in. That especially if Trump’s policies are going to lead to higher domestic inflation while impacting growth outlooks in other countries.

It’s still only two days into the post-election window. There’s going to be much more for traders to digest and take into consideration in the months ahead. So, I guess it’s also a good thing that markets are not getting too carried away just yet.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The US Dollar is now lower
across the board as the market erased most of the greenback’s gains following
Trump’s victory. This has been a puzzling reaction as Trump’s policies are
likely to spur growth and potentially end the Fed’s easing cycle earlier than
expected.

We can argue that the
market was already positioned for a Trump’s victory as we saw the greenback
rallying for a couple of weeks leading into the US election. So, this might
just be a “sell the fact” reaction and the market might now need more to keep
bidding the USD.

Another possible
explanation is that the market is more focused on global growth now and that’s
generally bearish for the greenback. We saw something similar in 2016 when the
USD rallied strongly once Trump got elected but after a couple of months, it went
into a 2-year long downtrend.

The Fed for now remains
neutral and on track to keep cutting rates. Yesterday, they cut by 25 bps as expected and given the overall neutral
message, the market expects another 25 bps cut in December. Strong data from
now until the December meeting though could change their plans for 2025.

We have the US CPI report
next week and that’s going to be a test. If the US Dollar sells off on hot
data, then the market might be indeed focusing on global growth rather than the
potential for an earlier pause in the Fed’s easing cycle.

AUDUSD
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that AUDUSD spiked to a new low as Trump got elected President but
eventually reversed course and rallied into a new high. We have a key level
around 0.6622. The buyers will likely step in there with a defined risk below
the level to position for a rally into new highs. The sellers, on the other
hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to pile in for a drop into the
0.64 handle.

AUDUSD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that the price is reacting to the key level as we got the first rejection.
There’s not much more we can add here as the buyers will look for a bounce,
while the sellers will look for a break lower.

AUDUSD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that at the moment we have a downward trend on this timeframe. The buyers
will want to see the price breaking above the most recent lower high around the
0.6660 level to increase the bullish bets into new highs. The red lines define
the average daily range for today.

Upcoming
Catalysts

Today we conclude the week with the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
report.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

The US Dollar is now lower
across the board as the market erased most of the greenback’s gains following
Trump’s victory. This has been a puzzling reaction as Trump’s policies are
likely to spur growth and potentially end the Fed’s easing cycle earlier than
expected.

We can argue that the
market was already positioned for a Trump’s victory as we saw the greenback
rallying for a couple of weeks leading into the US election. So, this might
just be a “sell the fact” reaction and the market might now need more to keep
bidding the USD.

Another possible
explanation is that the market is more focused on global growth now and that’s
generally bearish for the greenback. We saw something similar in 2016 when the
USD rallied strongly once Trump got elected but after a couple of months, it went
into a 2-year long downtrend.

The Fed for now remains
neutral and on track to keep cutting rates. Yesterday, they cut by 25 bps as expected and given the overall neutral
message, the market expects another 25 bps cut in December. Strong data from
now until the December meeting though could change their plans for 2025.

We have the US CPI report
next week and that’s going to be a test. If the US Dollar sells off on hot
data, then the market might be indeed focusing on global growth rather than the
potential for an earlier pause in the Fed’s easing cycle.

USDCHF
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that USDCHF couldn’t extend the rally above the key resistance zone around the 0.8730 level. We now
have an upward trendline
defining the bullish momentum. We can expect the buyers to lean on it to
position for a rally into new highs, while the sellers will look for a break lower
to increase the bearish bets into new lows.

USDCHF Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have a minor support around the 0.87 handle. The buyers will likely
step in there with a defined risk below it to target new highs, while the
sellers will look for a break lower to increase the bearish bets into the major
trendline.

USDCHF Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, there’s
not much to add here as the buyers will look for a bounce around the 0.87
handle, while the sellers will look for a break. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming
Catalysts

Today we conclude the week with the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
report.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

The Nasdaq tested the
all-time high following Trump’s victory and the red sweep as the market started
to look forward to bullish drivers like tax cuts and deregulation.

One potential bearish
reason people are looking at is rising Treasury yields. That’s generally
bearish when the Fed is tightening though as the market looks forward to an
economic slowdown.

Right now, the Fed’s
reaction function is that a strong economy would warrant an earlier pause in
the easing cycle and not a tightening. That should still be supportive for the
stock market.

If the Fed’s reaction
function changes to a potential tightening, then that will likely see the stock
market correcting lower.

Nasdaq
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that the Nasdaq bounced on the trendline and extended the rally into the
all-time high following Trump’s victory. The sellers will likely step in around
these levels with a defined risk above the all-time high to position for a drop
back into the trendline. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the
price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into new highs.

Nasdaq Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the incredible rally since the bounce on the trendline. The
price is now testing the all-time high with the Fed’s decision looming. The
momentum is strong but if we get a bearish reaction to the Fed’s decision in
the afternoon, the dip-buyers will likely step in around the 20700 level. The
sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower to target the
trendline.

Nasdaq Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that the strong bullish momentum on this timeframe is fading a bit as the price
broke below the minor upward trendline. This price action might signal a
pullback into the 20700 level. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming Catalysts

Today we have the US Jobless Claims and the FOMC Policy Decision. Tomorrow,
we conclude the week with the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.