The sanctions will apply to the following firms: Edge Autonomy Operations LLC, Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc, and Skydio Inc. At the same time, ten US individuals are also being sanctioned as part of the same countermeasures. The list is as per the following (h/t @ Sino_Market):

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• US mortgage applications -5.1% vs -1.3% prior
• Morgan Stanley expecting slight deceleration in tomorrow’s CPI
• ECB’s Patsalides says room for rate cut but Middle East implications need assessment
• Interest rate expectations for upcoming policy decisions
• Israeli PM Netanyahu held extensive talks with senior officials on response to Iran
• Views on major FX from UBS
• ECB’s Kazaks: Rate cuts are necessary as the economy is weak
• China’s new yuan loans likely surged in September as stimulus ramps up
• Market mood a bit sour this morning
• Category 5 Hurricane Milton to hit Florida Gulf Coast tonight with 160 mph winds
• Lloyd’s of London warning on potential $14.5 trillion global economic loss
• ECB’s Kazimir: Not as convinced as media reports on October cut
• Europe’s STOXX 600 bolstered by defensive sectors amidst China uncertainty
• What are the main events for today?
• British envoy Lammy embarks on China mission to mend ties
• Geopolitical risk premium in oil market eases slightly, says Goldman Sachs
• The @Newsquawk Europe Market Open: China finance briefing, ECB and Fed speakers ahead
• China’s finance ministry to detail fiscal stimulus plans on Saturday
• Japanese machine tool orders decline in September
• German Imports Drop More Than Expected, Exports Rise
• ECB ‚very likely‘ to reduce interest rates next week, says Villeroy
• China’s finance ministry briefing set for October 12; fiscal policy adjustments revealed
• Dollar Holds Steady Pre-Fed Minutes; Kiwi Drops on Rate Cut
• India cenbank keeps rates steady at 6.50%, shifts to ’neutral‘ stance
• World Bank says China growth rate will drop next year, doubt over recent stimulus measures

It’s been another dull session as we continue to wait for the US CPI release tomorrow. The price action remains rangebound in most markets.

The only notable news was about the China’s finance ministry holding a news conference on Saturday to
provide details on fiscal stimulus measures aimed at reviving the
faltering economy.

We had also some ECB speakers continuing to talk about the October cut which is already fully priced in by the markets. On the geopolitical front, nothing has changed as Israel has not decided yet on the scope and the timing for the retailiation against Iran.

In the American session, there’s no economic data to be released but we will hear from lots of Fed speakers. Finally, we will conclude with the FOMC Meeting Minutes later in the day, but as it’s almost always the case, they won’t matter.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

US mortgage market index 277.5vs 292.3 prior

US mortgage purchase index 149.2 vs 149.3 prior

US MBA 30-year mortgage rate 6.36% vs 6.4% prior

This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Core CPI is projected at 0.26% MM and 3.2% YY

Headline CPI is projected at of 0.09% MM and 2.3 YY

The main components to watch for tomorrow:

• Housing inflation is expected to soften, with rents anticipated to decelerate, particularly due to adjustments in the Owner’s Equivalent Rent (OER) calculations and seasonal factors.

• Used car prices are expected to accelerate, which will push goods inflation into positive territory.
• Car insurance is expected to continue its downward path, with car insurance expected around 13% YY (versus the prior of 17% YY).

In terms of the possible broader economic and Fed policy impact the bank suggests that the disinflation trend aligns with the Fed’s projections, and along with the solid labor market data should support the forecast of two more 25 basis point cuts in November and December.

This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

• ECB’s Patsalides: There seems to be room for a rate cut.
• ECB’s Patsalides: But we should discuss all new data as usual.
• ECB’s Patsalides: Middle East implications should be assessed.

This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

ECB: -25 basis points of easing implied for October 17th meeting (100% probability implied for a cut)

BoC: -32 basis points of easing implied for October 23rd meeting (100% probability implied for a cut)

BoJ: 1 basis point of tightening implied for the October 31st meeting (87% probability implied for a hold)

RBA: -2 basis points of easing implied for the November 5th meeting (91% probability implied for a hold)

BoE: -21 basis points of easing implied for the November 7th meeting (84% probability implied for a cut)

Fed: -22 basis points of easing implied for the November 7th meeting (88% probability implied for a cut)

RBNZ: -45 basis points of easing implied for the November 27th meeting (100% probability implied for a cut – almost fully priced for another 50bp move)

SNB: -30 basis points of easing implied for the December 12th meeting (100% probability implied for a cut)

This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

• Riksbank’s Bunge says more confident that high inflation is behind us
• China’s Premier Li vows stronger policy coordination with timely implementation
• PepsiCo expect higher borrowing costs to impact consumer spending
• ECB’s Centeno: Inflation in the Euro Area converged towards goal
• US September NFIB small business optimism index 91.5 vs 91.2 prior
• Japan’s Akazawa says wage-price cycle progressing but full shift not yet achieved
• ECB’s Elderson: We will continue to gradually ease our restrictive stance
• Chinese equities remains close to session lows
• ECB’s Nagel: Open to October rate cut
• ECB’s Vaslle says a rate cut in October is an option
• Sour mood for risk sentiment this morning
• Iran’s FM to visit Saudi Arabia and regional nations to address escalating tensions
• More from Fed’s Kugler: The Fed is looking at trends in the labour market, not single data
• ECB’s Kazaks: Data points to October rate cut
• Fed’s Kugler: Support additional rate cuts if progress on inflation continues
• The @Newsquawk Europe Market Open: China’s NDRC press conference met with disappointment
• French Trade Balance data for August reveals a shortfall, impacting Exports
• What are the main events for today?
• Iran Warns Israel of Stronger Retaliation if Attacked Amid Rising Tensions
• German Industrial Production Beats Expectations at 2.9% Rise in August
• ECB Elderson Warns of Materialising Risks to Economic Growth Ahead of Key October Meeting
• Fed’s Williams Signals More Rate Cuts Ahead After September Reduction
• China’s Economic Planner Confident in Achieving 2024 Goals Despite Complex Challenges

It’s been another quiet session in terms of data releases. The only notable data point was the US NFIB Small Business Optimism index which ticked higher compared to the prior month.

We had also many ECB speakers confirming a rate cut in October which the market has already priced in weeks ago. The price action in the FX market remains rangebound as we continue to wait for the US CPI release on Thursday.

In the equity space, the Chinese markets continue to trade around the daily lows while the US and European markets have been grinding higher.

In the commodities space, crude oil is down 1.88% on the day since the peak hit in the overnight session at $78.46 with the pullback in the Chinese equities being the likely culprit. Copper is another big loser as it’s been even more sensitive to the Chinese markets lately. Gold, on the other hand, remains rangebound as the recent rally in real yields continues to weigh on the market.

The American session will be empty in terms of key data releases and the Fedspeak will take the centre stage once again as we get Fed’s Bostic and Fed’s Collins speaking.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

• Libya’s NOC says daily production reached 1,133,133 BPD of crude oil and condensate in the last 24 hours – Statement.
• Libya’s NOC says recovery comes just days after the lifting of the force majeure – Statement.

This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

• Riksbank’s Bunge: We are more confident that the period of high inflation is behind us.
• Riksbank’s Bunge: At the same time, we are in a mild downturn and it is important that the Swedish economy now recovers.

This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

• China’s State Council held special study session on economic policies on Tuesday – State media.
• China’s Premier Li: Will strengthen policy coordination – State media.
• China’s Premier Li: Policy implementation should reflect good timing, strength, and pace – State media
• China’s Premier Li: All sides should actively roll out policy measures to stabilise growth – State media.

This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.