<p>BTCUSD had a nice rally above 3% yesterday but volume is not strong and bitcoin can easily test the 20k mark or close to it. We aim for a short position with a ‚take profit‘ target that is in line with testing an important VWAP, and is much higher than that 20 thousand dollar key price point. In fact, we aim to take profit and exit the trade even above 21k, at $21421</p><p>Still, in crypto trading, this is above 7.5% move, and at a leverage of 5 to 1, this is almost a 40% return on the capital committed on the trade. Remember that we are not suggested or telling you to trade, nor is this a signal service. It is an opinion and through that perspective, we also show a view of the current technical analysis for bitcoin. In this case, on the daily timeframe. In other words, our trade idea is a means to show you a certain technical analysis.</p><p>Firstly, some bulls have probably set a stop below a recent key low that they see. A prominent one is the 26 July low, so they would set their stops at around $20300. This price level is close to a notable Fib price level (0.382) and not far from a key ‚round number‘ and key price level of $20k. If institutions want to stop out the bulls, even those that think they set a healthy, distant stop, then BTCUSD could easily go down within the range of $19900 to $20600, to have those bulls hit their stops. </p><p>Secondly, in this specific technical analysis for the crypto king, we analyze the BTCUSD price chart using an Anchored VWAP. It ties calculations to a price bar that the trader has chosen. It is like the traditional VWAP in that it uses a weighted average of the price and the number of trades. It can also find the areas of support and resistance on the chart, just like VWAP. In this case, we anchor the VWAP from the pivot point and the low of the recent period, which is 17567, the low of 18th of June.</p><p>Thirdly, BTCUSD had made 4 pushes up since that low, creating what some algos and pro traders would view as ascending wedge. A rising wedge pattern is a bearish chart pattern that shows a breakdown may be coming soon, in probability that is higher than 50%. That is a a suffient chance when taking into consideration that the profit target here is 1.5 times the risk (the distance from the entry to the stop loss).</p><p>Who knows, maybe this bitcoin price forecast is partially affected by a bias because <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Cryptocurrency/every-us-crypto-exchange-and-binance-is-being-investigated-by-the-sec-20220805/“>every U.S. Crypto Exchange (and Binance) is being investigated by the SEC</a>.</p><p>Technical analysis OSCILLATORS, for BTCUSD on a weekly timeframe:</p><p>When analyzing technicals for bitcoin vs the USD, one can look at oscillators as a technical analysis tool that provides a trend indication inside high and low ranges. The trend indicator identifies short-term overbought or oversold conditions.</p><p>Looking at the weekly timeframe, BTCUSD is fairly neutral, according to the following technical analysis of oscillators and their values.</p><p>Technical analysis MOVING AVERAGES, for BTCUSD on a weekly timeframe:</p><p>When analyzing technicals for bitcoin vs the USD, one can look at moving averages to examine the BTCUSD weekly trend. Sum all the data points for a given time period and divide by the number of time periods. Moving averages help technical traders.</p><p>Looking at the weekly timeframe, BTCUSD is fairly weak, according to the moving average indicators and their values. </p><p>Update on the trade idea provided (short BTCUSD):</p><p>Traders that wish to take partial profit, may do so, at that 20 EMA line, or just above it at $22750, if and when BTCUSD gets there. Entry price for the BTCUSD short was at $23201, so that would be a profitable trade taking a 2.1% move. On a leverage of 5 to 1, that would be a 10.5% return. Some traders would even take partial profit now, as BTCUSD erased its current daily gain and is at apx, $22970, pocketing over a leveraged profit for over a 1% move, equivalent to a 5% profit on the 5-to-1 leveraged trade.</p><p>———————</p><p>For this update, we used <a target=“_blank“ href=“www.tradingview.com“>TradingView</a>, a great tool for new and seasoned chartists, traders and investors. Trade bitcoin or any other crypto currencies at your own risk only. Visit ForexLive <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/terms/t/technical-analysis/“ target=“_blank“ id=“97b48ade-9582-40e4-af10-290ec70138af_8″ class=“terms__main-term“>technical analysis</a> for other technical examinations of a variety of financial assets.</p>

This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.

<p>The US jobs report on Friday helped to initially move the dollar higher, stocks lower and yields higher. However, by the close, the dollar had come off high levels, stocks took back declines. Yields did stay elevated. </p><p>What about the expectations going forward?</p><p>What might the Fed officials reaction be to 528K new jobs?</p><p>What are the technicals saying for the major currencies vs the USD?</p><p>Where do the major US stock indices sit and what are their charts saying?</p><p>In this weekend video, I discuss the jobs report, my feelings on what response Fed officials may have, and what the charts are saying for currencies and the major US indices. </p><p>Prepare for the week ahead. </p>

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

<p>U.S. Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman spoke on Saturday at a Kansas Bankers Association event in Colorado. </p><p>Key takeaway comment:</p><ul><li>“I supported the FOMC’s decision last week to raise the federal funds rate another 75 basis points. My view is that similarly-sized increases should be on the table until we see inflation declining in a consistent, meaningful, and lasting way.“</li></ul><p>Bowman says she is seeing few, if any, signs of peak inflation and that she supports further rate hikes until a major decline is seen. Until then 75bp hikes are possible. </p><p>More:</p><ul><li>supply issues will continue to drive inflation</li><li>there are significant inflation risks for food, fuel, & housing in 2023</li><li>I want unequivocal inflation cooling before modifying my outlook</li><li>inflation is much too high</li><li>inflation is putting a strain on households, excessive inflation is a bigger threat to the labour market</li><li>says she sees a possibility of FOMC steps slowing or even halting growth in jobs</li><li>a pickup in H2 GDP, and then modest growth next year, is the base case</li><li>labour market is tight, but there are signs easing</li></ul><p>Michelle Bowman is a member of the Fed’s Board of Governors and is thus a voter at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). </p>

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

<p>Talks continued over the weekend in Vienna aimed at reviving Tehran’s 2015 nuclear deal with world powers.</p><p>Iranian state media reported comments from Iran’s foreign minister Hossein Amirabdollahian, that he</p><blockquote> „stressed the need for a realistic U.S. response to Iran’s constructive proposals on various issues to make the deal work“</blockquote><p>Talks have been ongoing for months and months. No breakthrough is expected any time soon. We’ll see. </p><p>The point of keeping track of all this is that oil traders opine that if a deal is reached more Iranian oil will, eventually, flow back into global markets. </p><p>-</p><p>The background to this is that in 2015 Iran agreed with the United States, Britain, France, Germany, Russia and China, to curb Iranian enrichment activity. As part of the deal, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, sanctions on Iran were removed. In 2018 then US President Trump abandoned the agreement and imposed sanctions back on Iran. Iran has since rebuilt its stocks of enriched uranium.-</p><p>European diplomats are speaking with their Iranian counterparts. The US is not directly involved in the talks.</p><p> <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/terms/e/eur/“ target=“_blank“ id=“b0427fd7-674c-4ad1-b689-22d1f8b087b0_1″ class=“terms__main-term“>eur</a> </p>

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

<p>The major stock indices are closing the day with mixed results:</p><ul><li>Dow industrial average rose 76.63 points or 0.23% at 32803.48</li><li>S&P index fell -6.75 points at -0.16% at 4145.18</li><li>NASDAQ index fell -63.02 points at -0.50% at 12657.56</li><li>Russell 2000 gain 15.36 points or 0.81% at 1921.82</li></ul><p>The NASDAQ index snapped a two day winning streak. Each of the indices fell 3 days and gain on two day’s to start the trading month. </p><p>For the week:</p><ul><li>Dow industrial average fell -0.13%</li><li>S&P index rose 0.36%</li><li>NASDAQ index rose 2.15%</li></ul><p>Looking at the Dow 30, the biggest gainers were:</p><ul><li>J.P. Morgan, +3.03%</li><li>Chevron, +1.51%</li><li>Verizon, +1.17%</li><li>Visa, +1.08%</li><li>Caterpillar +0.95%</li></ul><p>The biggest losers in the Dow included:</p><ul><li>Disney -1.41%</li><li>Boeing -0.91%</li><li>Cisco -0.82%</li><li>Intel -0.76%</li><li>Salesforce -0.59%</li></ul><p>Other big gainers today included a number of the meme stocks:</p><ul><li>bed Bath and beyond +32.68%</li><li>beyond meat +21.89%</li><li>AMC +18.97%</li><li>Lyft +16.62%</li><li>Goodrx, +6.8%</li><li>Game Stop +4.17%</li></ul><p>Some big losers today included:</p><ul><li>Celsius, -9.03%</li><li>Tesla -6.63%</li><li>Western Digital -5.65%</li><li>Alibaba, -4.99%</li><li>Robin Hood -4.41%</li><li>Paramount global -4.15%</li><li>Moderna -3.78%</li></ul>

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

<ul><li>In US consumer credit rose $40.15B vs 25.0B est</li><li>revolving credit increased by $14.8B </li><li>Non revolving credit rose by $24.3B</li><li>For the year, revolving credit rose by 14.6% while non-revolving credit increase by 6.9%.</li></ul><p>The month on month volatility is more to the upside. Inflation is impacting the pocketbooks and may be leading to more borrowing to make ends meet. Having said that, balance sheets are stil solid overall. So it is hard to say it is a huge problem, but it may be a concern. </p>

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

<p>WTI crude oil settled at $89.01, up 47 cents on the day.</p><p>That’s a win for the bulls but certainly not the kind of bounce they were hoping for after yesteday’s breakdown below $90. It wasn’t all bad news though as crude showed some life after a drop to as low as $87.01. </p><p>On the fundamental side, the strong US jobs report undermines the idea that a recession will sap oil demand. The US added 528,000 jobs in July, more than double what economists were expecting.</p><p>Still, it was one of the worst weeks for oil this year. It fell $10 from last Friday’s close and is now up just $10 on the year. Technically, the daily and weekly closes were below a series of March/April lows. The period of consolidation over most of the year has now resolved lower.</p><p>The open question in the week ahead is what is going on with US gasoline demand. I wrote about it here: <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/the-data-thats-driving-the-rout-in-oil-prices-is-barely-believable-20220804/“ target=“_blank“>The data that’s driving the rout in oil prices is barely believable</a>. It’s something that oil bulls are talking about non-stop and even made its way to <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/very-crooked-numbers-biden-admin-accused-fabricating-gas-demand-data-hammer-price-oil“ target=“_blank“ rel=“nofollow“>ZeroHedge</a>.</p>

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

<ul><li>Prior was +22.35B (revised to $23.79B)</li><li>Revolving +14.8B</li><li>Non-revolving +25.36B</li></ul><p>Consumers continue to borrow, despite rising rates. That could be a sign of an optimistic consumer or a consumer that can’t afford to pay the bills.</p>

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

<p>Headlines:</p><ul><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/nfp-in-focus-to-wrap-up-the-week-20220805/“>NFP in focus to wrap up the week</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/boes-bailey-interest-rates-are-not-going-back-to-pre-gfc-levels-20220805/“>BOE’s Bailey: Interest rates are not going back to pre-GFC levels</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/boes-pill-should-not-assume-boe-would-raise-rates-by-50-bps-in-september-20220805/“>BOE’s Pill: Should not assume BOE would raise rates by 50 bps in September</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/germany-june-industrial-output-04-vs-03-mm-expected-20220805/“>Germany June industrial output +0.4% vs -0.3% m/m expected</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/france-june-trade-balance-billion-131-vs-126-billion-expected-20220805/“>France June trade balance billion -€13.1 vs -€12.6 billion expected</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/uk-july-halifax-house-prices-01-vs-18-mm-prior-20220805/“>UK July Halifax house prices -0.1% vs +1.8% m/m prior</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/china-says-will-sanction-us-house-speaker-pelosi-over-taiwan-visit-20220805/“>China says will sanction US House speaker Pelosi over Taiwan visit</a></li></ul><p>Markets:</p><ul><li>USD leads, AUD lags on the day</li><li>European equities lower; S&P 500 futures flat</li><li>US 10-year yields up 0.4 bps to 2.694%</li><li>Gold down 0.3% to $1,786.43</li><li>WTI crude down 0.4% to $88.19</li><li>Bitcoin up 3.6% to $23,320</li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>It was a quiet session in Europe today as all eyes are fixed on the US jobs report later today.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Equities were tepid while bonds also showed little appetite to chase any moves on the day. In the major currencies space, the dollar is steady amid narrow ranges with some light extension without much direction in general.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Most dollar pairs are observing small changes with only USD/JPY being a notable mover in Asia, climbing to 133.45 before falling back to 132.90 in Europe and then settling around 133.10 currently. That isn’t indicative of much as the pair continues to see some large swings below 135.00 on the week.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>A placeholder session best describes the last eight to ten hours as we count down to the US non-farm payrolls to provide some final action before the weekend.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>For those following the oil market closely, it is hard to believe that there is such a compelling argument that oil prices should move lower significantly. Yet, markets are acting that way based on data which may not actually be credible. Adam provided a very comprehensive overview on that yesterday <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/the-data-thats-driving-the-rout-in-oil-prices-is-barely-believable-20220804/“ target=“_blank“>here</a>. It is a must read if you’re looking into what’s driving the oil market at the moment.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>As much as conditions remain tight and supply from most key producers are at capacity, adding to the fact that global inventories are low, oil prices haven’t shown much confidence since the middle of June. In fact, prices look set for another weekly decline that will make it a drop in 7 out of the past 9 weeks.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>I wouldn’t doubt that there are still plenty of oil bulls around. I for one am still in that camp but as a trader, you always have to respect the technicals. That is the number one rule as that is how you define and limit your risk.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The picture above is rather bleak for oil, to say the least. The break back below $90 and a drop below both its 100 and 200-day moving averages is suggesting that selling pressures are picking up and there is potentially more downside to follow. Sellers are in control now and sentiment is leaning more bearish. I wouldn’t want to be fighting that, as much as I believe oil prices are going to come back.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The trendline support (yellow line) is the next key level to watch and that holds closer to $80 before we get to the figure level itself. A further drop below that will leave very little in the way of a plunge back towards the December lows closer to $63 to $65. I would argue that might be where oil may look like a fire sale but we’ll have to see how market sentiment continues to play out before jumping to any firm conclusions.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.