The USDJPY bumped against three-year highs this week on both Wednesday and Friday, and found willing sellers each time. The high on Wednesday reached 151.81. The high today reached 151.85. That compares to the 2022 high at 151.95, and the 2023 high at 151.91. So over the last three years, the swing highs are within 10 pips of each other. That’s a ceiling.

Having said that ceilings are meant to be broken. If it happens, it would take the USDJPY to the highest level since 1990 over 30+ years ago.

What would give the sellers more confidence?

The swing highs from February into early March peaked between 150.71 and 150.88. If the sellers are to take more control, getting and staying below that lower ceiling would be needed to increase the bearish bias. Absent that and the sellers are not winning. The buyers are still in firm control.

In the video above, I outline the technicals for the USDJPY in more detail as you prepare for the new trading week.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Crude oil futures are settling at $80.63. That is down $0.44 or -0.54%.

The low for the day reached $80.42. The high was up at $81.45. For the trading week, the price is down -0.51% on a decline of $0.41. At session highs this week, the price was up $2.08. At session lows, the price was down $0.74.

Looking at the weekly chart below, the high price this week at $83.12 briefly moved above its 100-week moving average at $83.27 before rotating back to the downside. Buyers had a shot. They missed.

The low for the week was reached yesterday at $80.30.

The price is back below its 50% midpoint of the 2023 trading range at $81.37. Getting back above that midpoint level is needed – along with a break of the 100-week moving average -to increase the bullish bias on the weekly chart.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

MetaWin, a leading
platform for online prize-winning games, has introduced a groundbreaking
initiative focused on enhancing transparency and fairness for players globally.
After extensive research, MetaWin identified inconsistencies in Return to
Player (RTP) rates among different operators, causing confusion among players.

Understanding RTP is crucial for players looking to make
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MetaWin has introduced a maximum win guarantee for all its
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player satisfaction,“ stated Rebecca Hanwell, Operations
Manager at Metawin. „Our commitment to maximising RTP isn’t just a
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A significant challenge for players is the lack of clarity
regarding the versions of games offered by operators. Many popular games, like
Gates of Olympus, come in multiple payout settings, with operators often
selecting versions that offer lower RTP without informing players.

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About Metawin

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This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

• Economic growth projected to pick up during the year, mainly driven by increasing purchasing power
• Economic resilience requires higher productivity, which needs higher capital investment
• Capital Markets Union (CMU) will have to play a key role in that regard

Nothing on monetary policy there by Lagarde.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• But the timing of the rate cut is unclear
• We are data dependent
• There are many who believe that developments in June will be such that we can cut at the time
• My view is that inflation is stickier than those people believe, which is why I am waiting for June data

Hmm, is he alluding to a move in July instead? For now, he seems to be the only one with a bit of vagueness in his remarks. Most of the other policymakers at the ECB are leaning towards June. And unless the data suggests otherwise, markets will continue to price in the first move for June as well.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The monthly order book balance shows just a marginal improvement in March. But the standout detail is perhaps that manufacturers are looking to increase selling prices by the most since last May. This owes to continued disruptions in the Red Sea, hurting supply chains. That might be a risk factor for the BOE to watch out for in the months ahead.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Yesterday, the Nasdaq Composite closed the day
negative as the price retreated from overstretched levels reached after the Fed
decision. We also got another slate of strong US data yesterday with the US Jobless Claims beating
expectations and the US Manufacturing PMI
increasing further into expansion. The comments in the PMI report were a bit
worrying as there were mentions of steep rise in costs and strengthened
pricing power amid the recent upturn in demand. This pushed the overall
selling price inflation for goods and services up to the highest levels for
nearly a year. The next inflation report will be crucial for the market as
another beat will likely be taken as very bad news at this point.

Nasdaq Composite Technical
Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that the Nasdaq
Composite yesterday retreated from the all-time high as the market pulled back
from the overstretched rally triggered by the FOMC decision. There’s not much
we can glean from this timeframe, so we need to zoom in to see some more
details.

Nasdaq Composite Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that
the price has been diverging with
the MACD for a
long time. This is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by
pullbacks or reversals. We continue to trade inside the rising wedge, so if
the price were to break below the trendline, the
sellers will have much more conviction to look for new lows with the base of
the wedge at 14477 being the ultimate target. For now, the buyers remain in
control, so we should find them around the bottom trendline targeting the top
trendline.

Nasdaq Composite Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see the recent
breakout of the resistance. From a risk management perspective, the buyers will
have a much better risk to reward setup around the trendline where they will
also find the red 21 moving average and
the Fibonacci
retracement levels for confluence. The
sellers, on the other hand, will need to wait for the break of the major
trendline before considering new positions.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

SNB:

• SNB cuts key policy rate by 25 bps to 1.50% from 1.75% previously
• Swiss franc tumbles after SNB surprises with a rate cut today
• SNB chairman Thomas Jordan says rate cut is not a parting gift

Headlines:

• Treasury yields retreat further post-Fed but nears key technical juncture
• Gold still on cloud nine ahead of European morning trade
• France March flash services PMI 47.8 vs 48.7 expected
• Germany March flash manufacturing PMI 41.6 vs 43.1 expected
• Eurozone January current account balance €39.4 billion vs €31.9 billion prior
• UK March flash services PMI 53.4 vs 53.8 expected

Markets:

• AUD leads, CHF lags on the day
• European equities higher; S&P 500 futures up 0.4%
• US 10-year yields down 3.8 bps to 4.233%
• Gold up 0.9% to $22,06.43
• WTI crude down 0.3% to $80.50
• Bitcoin up 0.1% at $67,170

As the window of opportunity is opening up for central banks to cut rates, the SNB is not waiting around to make its move. The Swiss central bank surprised with a 25 bps rate cut today and the franc fell as a result. We all knew that there was a chance that they could have surprised markets, but traders were caught wrongfooted after having priced in the first move for June instead.

EUR/CHF rose to its highest since July last year from 0.9680 to 0.9780, before easing back to 0.9740 now. Meanwhile, USD/CHF surged up to its highest levels for the year at 0.8975 before retreating to 0.8930 – still up 0.7% on the day.

Besides that, euro area PMI data saw some mixed readings for March. The manufacturing sector remains in recession but a stronger services sector is at least helping to stabilise the economy in general. The euro slipped with EUR/USD falling from 1.0920 to 1.0888 before sticking around 1.0900 with large option expiries also helping out.

As for the dollar itself, there was some post-Fed weakness during Asia trading. But that has dissipated somewhat in European morning trade so far, despite lower Treasury yields. USD/JPY was as low as 150.26 in Asia but has rebounded back to 151.10 now, down just 0.1% on the day.

In the equities space, stocks remain buoyed as European indices are sitting higher for the most part. US futures are also gaining further after the record closes in Wall Street yesterday.

And in the commodities space, gold continues to hold at fresh record highs above $2,200 as it consolidated gains above the figure level during the session.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Industry in particular will likely remain in a weak phase
• No major stimulus is expected from private consumption for the time being either
• Uncertainty over major issues, like climate policy, also weighing on investment decisions
• Inflation could fall further in the months ahead
• But some fluctuation is likely as services inflation is coming down rather slowly

The PMI data earlier today here reaffirms the above sentiment.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Yesterday, the Fed left interest rates unchanged as
expected with basically no change to the statement. The market was fearing some
hawkish stuff, but we didn’t get any. In fact, the Dot Plot showed still three
rate cuts for this year and the economic projections were all upgraded with
growth and inflation higher and the unemployment rate lower. Moreover, during
the press conference, Fed Chair Powell didn’t
sound hawkish, on the contrary, he was fairly neutral. This gave the Dow Jones
the green light for a rally as the risk sentiment turned very bullish.

Dow Jones Technical
Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that the Dow Jones surged
to a new all-time high following the Fed decision. This is a buyers’ market, so
the sellers should refrain from taking new positions until we get a change in
the risk sentiment and some key breakouts on the lower timeframes. We can also
notice that the price continues to diverge with the
MACD which is
generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or
reversals. In this case, it should be telling that the buyers should buy the
higher lows instead of FOMOing at higher highs.

Dow Jones Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that
the price broke through the 39119 resistance and
triggered a strong bullish reaction as the buyers piled in aggressively for a
new all-time high. From a risk management perspective, the buyers will have a
much better risk to reward setup around the resistance now
turned support where there’s also the 38.2% Fibonacci
retracement level for confluence. The
sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to
position for a drop into the 38464 level.

Dow Jones Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we
also have a minor trendline around the support zone where the buyers will
likely lean onto to position for new highs with a better risk to reward setup.
The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to
position for a drop into the 39464 level.

Upcoming Events

Today we will get some key economic data as we will
see the latest US Jobless Claims figures and the US PMIs.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.